Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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What happens to Hunter in this scenario?
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Joe Mauer. -
I'd probably do something similar, though I might not deal Plouffe. It all depends on Sano and his play, both offensively and defensively. Put Sano at DH and let him play third once or twice a week. Rotate Plouffe over to DH at least once a week and maybe both days.
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The Twins had no better options when they did that to Plouffe. That is not the case in 2015. Asking a rookie, no matter how good, to figure out MLB pitching and learn a new position at the same time is a bit much. How bad do you think Sano will be in right? Look at an athletic guy like Escobar and think about his struggles. Then factor in the enormous loss in defensive ability from benching Rosario and estimate whether you think it'll be an improvement or not... Chances are, it wouldn't.
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Still, it's not an entirely valid comparison. Plouffe has a WAR of 5.0 in the past 195 games. He's a two-way player and a pretty good one overall. Sano is a question mark. While I'd like to see him at DH, he might not hit enough to be there on a contending team and his defense is... questionable, to be extremely generous about it. There are a lot of Twins players with flaws, both great and small, but using that as a reason to promote a prospect is flawed reasoning. The prospect is either ready or he's not. Exceptions can be made in a pinch when the need is dire but I wouldn't fall over myself getting Sano to Minnesota if I felt that it would hinder his development, particularly defensively. And not having watched Sano on a daily basis, I'm certainly not in the position to make that call.
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Yeah, this. The Twins can build a lot of "win now" attitude just by calling up some of their super prospects. They've already called up Buxton. Sano could come soon. If Meyer works out of the pen, we might see him. There are a lot of options that don't rely on calling up decent, but not top-shelf, prospects. Meyer is still walking too many guys but he's making AAA hitters look foolish with 15 Ks in 10.2 relief innings. He might not be far away if the Twins' pen stumbles again.
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Oh boy, this is going to be fun! And I thought I'd have to rely on FIFA news to keep me entertained through the summer.
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His numbers were certainly lower in 2010 but it was still good for a 140 OPS+, the third highest number in Joe's career to that point. Given the power-sucking vacuum that was Target Field in 2010, I think he still gets roughly the same contract on the free agent market. I don't think teams would have blinked at the change in his numbers from 2009 to 2010 (particularly the Red Sox, who absolutely prized Joe's Monster-banging ability, elite OBP, and very good defense). Does anyone really think that Epstein wasn't salivating at the prospect of bidding on Joe Mauer? I don't know if there's a player in baseball who would have appealed to Theo more than Joe Mauer in 2010.
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Given the competition at first, he doesn't need to be top ten... If he can get back to even an 115 OPS+, he has some value. Not as much as any of us want but it's still value. I don't even care about the power so much as Joe getting back to being a .300 hitter with a .060-.070 ISOd. That's a really valuable player to have at any position. Stick him in the second spot in the lineup and just let him get on base.
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True, but if the Astros were confident enough in the date to call up Correa, that's good enough for me.
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If the team wants to start by benching Joe once a week while the team is contending and he is struggling, I have absolutely no issues with that. Start small. See what happens. The money is spent but if Joe magically turns back into an .800 hitter, you don't want to miss that opportunity and you want to give that guy every chance in the world to make it happen. We're talking about a guy who was a first-ballot HoF shoe-in just 16 months ago and is only 32 years old. He's not Chris Colabello.
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As much as the Twins "were taken to the woodshed", Joe Mauer probably would have received more money on the free agent market. In 2009/2010, both the Yankees and Red Sox needed a long-term catching solution. It wouldn't have surprised me even a little to see one of them offer over $200m for Joe that offseason, particularly if they started bidding against one another. Joe Mauer's contract was fair market value at the time, if not slightly under what he would have received in free agency. The reality of the situation is this: big money contracts usually turn out to be a horrible deal for the purchasing team in the long run. Joe Mauer is not an aberration here.
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Mauer needs more time. Yeah, he looks really bad right now but it'd be foolish to bench a guy with his track record. As much as I'd like to see Mauer on the bench for performance reasons, it's not good roster management now or going forward. He is owed a lot of money and you have to let it play out until the situation becomes unbearable and it's obvious that he will never return to being a productive player. We're not at that point yet.
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Ah, found Cameron's article. Thanks, everybody. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/steven-matz-the-mets-and-the-super-two-rule/ Wow, that's really early, especially considering how late the season started in 2015.
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Do you have any links? I'm trying to dig it up but I'm not finding anything concrete. For example, Arcia played 200 games and was projected to just miss the cutoff. Had he played 220, he would have made it. We're ~70 games into the season. If Sano is called up today, he'd get roughly 230 games before the end of 2016 (removing ~20 games just to be conservative). Unless teams have gone promotion-crazy this season - a real possibility given the amount of prospects hitting the show - the date is still nebulous and may not have passed.
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Not under the new rules. They changed a couple years back with the latest CBA. It's sometime around the middle of July now. Also, let's not forget that the season started really late this year. April 6th was Opening Day.
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And while I'm not one to yell about "TEH MONIES", it's a bit foolish to call up Sano today. If the Twins wait just a few weeks - giving Kennys a legitimate shot to be a DH solution - they pass over the Super 2 date and save an assload of money in 2019 and beyond, possibly as much as $15m. That's the price of a really good player. It's not the kind of money you dismiss out of hand. In the case of Buxton, it made sense to ignore it because he's going to get over a month of service time before the deadline. In the case of Sano - who almost surely won't be called up in the next week - it could be as little as a few days. And for a few days of playing time, you wait it out, particularly when you're interested in seeing what you have in Vargas.
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I don't see anyone advocating for the farm system to do it all... But there are people - myself included - who believe the Twins should be prudent in trading away pieces until they have a better idea of who they are as a team. Stewart is a risk right now. Trading him is even riskier because the return is going to be so little comparatively. We need to be patient with the kid and let him develop. I'm far more concerned about the injuries and rollercoaster fastball velocity than I am the strikeouts at this point in time. The kid can't even legally drink. He could spend five more years in the minors and still debut as a 25 year old. Let's not fall over ourselves with snap decisions that could seriously hinder the long-term future of the franchise. Not every prospect is Jose Berrios. Some take more time to simmer. Some never boil. That's a risk you need to take and you don't trade away the guy when his value is so low. That's the easiest way to completely destroy a franchise's long-term ability to compete. If the Twins pursue someone like Castro, the price is going to start with something like "Berrios and Gonsalves". Is that a price the Twins should be willing to pay? No, I don't think it is. I'd prefer to see them do whatever they can to offload some of the excess starters on the team, not trade away the kids on the farm who, when combined, will likely form a better rotation in 2017 and beyond.
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Sano seems to be heating up again so he's definitely back on the radar. If Sano had a spot to play right now, I'd be all over a call-up... But with third base occupied, I think the prudent move is to let Vargas play for at least a couple more weeks and then reevaluate as we head toward the break. As long as the Twins are in contention, Plouffe cannot move off third. He's one of the Twins' better overall position players and right now they have to think about what's best in 2015, not 2016 and beyond. Mauer isn't going anywhere so that leaves only DH for Sano in the short-term, which means that Sano plays at the expense of Vargas. While I'm not against that idea, I believe Kennys should get a little more time to earn a legitimate shot at DH before he's demoted in favor of Miguel.
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Keep posting, please. I want to see you track Colabello through July and August. Please be as diligent about it through the dog days as you are right now. Here, I'll help: in the last 14 days, Colabello has a .697 OPS with zero walks and ten strikeouts. In his past 28 days, he has walked just three times while striking out 21 times. Without that absurd BABIP (still slightly over .400 for the past month), he's a very different player. He's not walking and he hit just three home runs in the past month (not bad but not amazing) so it's not as if that OPS is fueled by things a player can control over the long run. One cannot count on a .400 BABIP for any player, period. Let's all take a moment to remember Danny Santana's 2014 and then compare it to his 2015 when the luck well ran dry. To give Colabello some context, the highest modern career BABIP (min 3000 PAs) is Joey Votto at .362. The top three modern players read like a HoF list: Votto, Carew, Jeter. They have career BABIPs in the .354-.362 range. For the record, I like Chris Colabello and wish him only the best. He sounds like a great guy. I'm simply realistic about his current performance and what can be expected of a guy his age. Hell, I hope I'm wrong about him... But I'm probably not. This isn't my first rodeo and blips on the radar like Chris Colabello aren't terribly uncommon in the history of baseball. Also, nowhere did I say Colabello has "no talent" so you can go ahead and drop the quotation marks, Hyperbole & a Half.
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MLB retirement due to injury question
Brock Beauchamp replied to ShouldaCouldaWoulda's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Someone doesn't have to retire if they're injured. They can just keep collecting the paycheck until the contract expires. That's what I would do if I had guaranteed money coming my way. -
It should be noted that this has been a criticism of Hughes throughout his career. He has the stuff to succeed but he changes his approach on a near-yearly basis, often to his detriment.
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Phil Hughes' lack of strikeouts is far more concerning than his home run rate, which currently sits at a career high 13.3%. Yeah, that's right. His 2015 HR/FB rate is higher than any season he posted in Yankee Stadium. That will not continue. But the lack of missed bats is becoming more concerning by the day. His 2015 number of 14.5 K% is a full five points lower than his career mark. In the past seven seasons, Hughes' fastball has clocked 92 or higher every year but two: his injury-riddled 2011 campaign and this season. What does that mean? I don't know. It could be a decline trend (though Hughes is still quite young) or it could mean that something might be wrong with Phil. Whether it's physical, his delivery, or something else, I do not know.
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Agreed. Just hearing that proposed makes me want to shut down the board because I just can't even. Joe Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. He will not return to catching. Full stop.
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Uh, okay. I know that whenever I'm heading to the ballpark, this is the first thing that comes to mind:
