But May hasn't been better than Pelfrey. That's kind of the point. May should be better than Pelfrey but reality often doesn't line up with what should happen. This is where people get lost in advanced metrics. FIP and xFIP are great, I love 'em. But they don't tell you who was (notice past tense usage there) the better player because at the end of the day, the guy who allows less runs and helps win more games is the better player, period. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Maybe an inferior player is crazy-lucky. That doesn't matter. He did more - through his own action or not - to help the team win and FIP doesn't count in a tie-breaker to see who makes the playoffs and who doesn't. Wins are the only stat that do that and the player who scores and/or prevents the most is the better player every time. But FIP and xFIP are great for predicting future success, better than ERA and other traditional stats... But again, there's a big difference between "what happened" and "what should have happened".