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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't disagree with that. He might have a 4 WAR season mixed in there somewhere but he's not an ace.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Berrios is the risk. He might be good, he might be a disaster. That's why the deal is a big gamble and would require some serious stones to sign off on. The loss of Gibson puts a lot of risk into this season. 2016 and beyond it's a lesser risk.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    If you can dish off Ricky Bobby in the process, I'd have the paperwork signed and faxed over before I could finish saying "yes" and hang up the phone. But I think that's a whole lot of wishful thinking and not based in reality. I think Nolasco is a drag on the deal, not a benefit.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Losing Gibson would hurt not because of Kyle's greatness but because of the depth behind him on the team. That has always been my argument. I think Kyle is a pretty good pitcher and will continue to be one for a few years but he's a lot more Brad Radke than Johan Santana. If you have two other Brad Radkes, cool. If you have Tommy Milones and Mike Pelfreys, not so cool.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. I'd rather trade Rosario as well but I don't think he gets it done. I've just never been that high on Eddie.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Duffey is a nice piece to have in a deep system but he's not the type of guy you count on to become much of anything. If Duffey is your top pitching prospect, you have org issues. Better than Hendriks, still not that impressive.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I also had concerns Santana could crash and burn. On an expected 75 win team, I didn't really care. You let players develop at that point. That's why I don't fault the Twins for starting with Santana but fault them enormously for not adjusting as the situation changed.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't trade Hunter but I would have started giving him days off some time ago to get Arcia's bat in the lineup.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks for the consistent updates on Hu. He's an intriguing arm with questions. A definite dark horse in the system.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. You got your wins from them. Yay, good job! The key is to move on once you stop getting wins from them. As two vets on expiring contracts, this should be a relatively easy decision. Will that happen? Probably not and that's aggravating.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Arica, definitely. Vargas, eh. Walker, NO. There's very little doubt in my mind that Walker would be crucified by MLB pitching.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    That's exactly why it's the kind of ballsy move I could get behind. It's a feast or famine type of move, which is exactly what I think the Twins need right now to stay in it. And it doesn't sacrifice much of their longterm outlook in the process.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand rolling the dice on Santana. He played out of his mind in 2014 and while we all saw regression coming, I think most of us thought it'd probably be manageable regression. On a team not expected to contend, that's a fine option. Where the Twins went wrong is that they didn't demote Santana after six weeks and let him figure it out in Rochester for the remainder of the 2015 season.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it's a massive risk. There's a good chance that team finishes under .500 on the season. But it's the kind of "we're banking on our best kids and we're going to sink or swim with them leading the way" move that I can get behind.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Though an interesting idea is to really roll the dice on the season. Trade Gibson, Polanco, and Kepler or Walker (obviously, Walker is preferred) for Tulowitzki. Do the Rockies listen? Put May back into the rotation and here's where it gets interesting. Move Pelfrey to the bullpen or move him for a middling bullpen arm (that should be a reasonable task). The riskiest part of this deal? Jose Berrios is promoted and inserted into the rotation. The Twins could collapse but the upside is there to be really good. Very risky but that's the type of deal I could get behind. Most of the key components stay in place (minus Gibson) and you roll the dice on Berrios.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    BTW, I highly recommend John and Aaron's podcast today. Both are kinda in line with my thinking, though I'd give up Rosario (unlike John) but would keep Gibson (unlike Aaron). Not because I love Gibson so much but because the Twins' chances in 2015 bottom out without Kyle in the rotation. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19298-article-gleeman-the-geek-episode-205-troy-tulowitzki-mayor-of-speculation-city/
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that going into 2016, you want better options than Escobar and Santana... But right now, I'm focused on 2015. I think Escobar is enough to limp through 2015 (and possibly thrive in the short-term) and not kill the team. In a perfect world, Escobar is an obvious utility guy and succeeds in the role. We're not in a perfect world.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not against giving up "maybes". Hell, I'm all for giving up a few maybes if it fixes a position of need. It's going to take a lot more than "maybes" to get Tulo. Pick two of May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Berrios. That's what it will probably require.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    At a different position with a completely unsustainable .400 BABIP. Everything about Santana screamed regression. Do I think Escobar is a 2.5 WAR player? Hell no, I don't. But he's better than Santana and that's what matters.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not acting as if it's a one year deal, I'm acting as if the likelihood of Tulo being a valuable player decreases with each additional year, which it does. 2015 Tulo, great. 2016 Tulo, probably great. 2017 Tulo? Eh, this is where it starts to get really dicey. The guy spent his age 27-29 seasons missing ~50% of the Rockies' games. How is he going to fare in his age 31-33 seasons?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    They don't even need to platoon Hunter. Sit him down, remind him that he's 40 years old, and that he needs rest if he's going to help the team down the stretch. If Hunter won't listen to that entirely reasonable conversation, then screw it. He's hurting the team right now.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's still a full two wins higher than Santana has been this season.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Parmelee is nothing like Oswaldo Arcia. Arcia has a higher career OPS+, has a full .100 higher MiLB OPS, and debuted two years younger. Also, I hate fWAR for pitchers. Valuing a player on what should have happened instead of what actually happened doesn't fly with me. Good for future prediction, not so good for actual valuation of events that occurred on a baseball diamond. Gausman's rWAR is 0.4. Besides, Gausman has spent most of the season in the bullpen. He's not going to be traded with a valuation of a starting pitcher. He's going to be traded as a curious bullpen arm with possible upside. Not terribly different than Arcia as a curious platoon candidate with possible upside.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm pretty sure that time was July 1st but somebody forgot to forward the memo.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but Oswaldo has slightly more success at the MLB level, which balances out their value. Both players are well into an MLB career. Arcia has 800 PAs, Gausman 200 IP. How they were viewed 3+ years ago is largely irrelevant.
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