Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    32,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    328

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Mediocre is a hell of a lot better than Pierzynski, who is pretty bad at everything except hitting nowadays. And what FG stat had Murphy as the fourth worst catcher in MLB?
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. I'm sure the Yankees are eyeing up Hicks' breakout potential and the Twins are eyeing up Murphy's rise through MiLB and lack of playing time.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Let's stay on topic, people. Leave the "you're a front office defender/hater no matter what happens" talk at the door.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I consider them both too SSS to really evaluate on any of the numbers. For example, Hicks received 98 PAs in July (roughly half Murphy's overall 2015 line) and rocked a .365 BABIP. Obviously, that won't last. Hicks' OPS in non-July months? .623, .547, .591, .701. That's really bad, folks. I was a big Hicks supporter this season. I thought he started to turn the corner... And he did, only to immediately trip over a curb and land on his face. The guy is a huge question mark. Talent-for-talent, this is a pretty fair trade, even if I don't really care for it. Any support for Hicks isn't really grounded in statistics, it's a Hail Mary for a flawed player who had a good month (and, again, this is coming from someone who saw something different in Hicks last season... But once again, it didn't last).
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I ran a message board when the Capps trade went down. I'd estimate less than 5% of the board didn't hate the trade. The deck was stacked against that one from day one and we all saw it. So let's not compare anything to the Capps trade. It's for the best. There are reasons not to love or even like this trade but as with too many things nowadays, everything is either the greatest or worst thing to ever happen in the known universe. Like almost everything else on the planet, this trade falls somewhere between those outliers. On paper, it's a relatively fair swap of talent. I don't care for it myself but at least I try to be objective about these things.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    That would have been my play as well - I would have gone after Wieters - but after Pierzynski went right back to the Braves so early in the offseason, that opportunity left the station far more quickly than any of us expected. Ryan could have easily found himself scratching for his D or even E level option, which is not a place a GM wants to find himself when the team's catching depth is so abysmal. I don't care for the move to acquire Murphy but I can't really fault Ryan for jumping at it, either.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    WAR projections often get the expected plate appearances wayyyyyyy off, which makes them basically useless. Hicks received nearly 400 PAs last season. Murphy didn't even hit 180. Hell, Steamer has Murphy projected for one PA in 2016. Lulz. Also, it's a bit odd to hold Murphy's crazy BABIP against him but not Hicks' extreme outlier month. The two players are something close to a wash in past performance. If someone wants to argue Hicks is a potential breakout, that's a fair argument... But that argument is based on hopes and wishes, not actual statistics... So it's best to leave the statistics at home for this one.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    They're not a wash. Murphy was slightly in the positive in extra strikes (+5.1 in 3111 chances) according to BP and Pierzynski was well into the negative (-14.1 in 6615 chances), worse than Suzuki. AJ Pierzynski is one of the worst defenders in baseball. You may have wanted him over Murphy - and I won't really argue that point - but let's call a spade a spade. AJ Pierzynski is a nearly-40 catcher who has been bad behind the dish for a very long time now.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    First, I'll start this off by saying WAR projections are pure and utter nonsense, but... Murphy is 24 years old and has a 0.8 career WAR in 284 career PAs. Hicks is 26 years old and has a 1.0 career WAR in 928 career PAs. Murphy had a 0.7 WAR in 2015 in 172 PAs, good for .00407 WAR per PA. Hicks had a 1.5 WAR in 2015 in 390 PAs, good for .00385 WAR per PA. So yeah. Murphy is younger and has a better track record. That was your point, yeah?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The league CS% during that time was 30% per BB Ref. And AJ's CS% was 24%.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    My sentiments are close to this though I'm not as high on Hicks and not as low on Murphy. Arcia or Vargas would have been great trades. But, again, this comes down to personal evaluation. I'd give up Hicks in a heartbeat before I gave up Meyer. If we're talking upside and team need, Meyer is a much better bet to keep if you're the Twins GM. Even if he's a power eighth inning arm, that's a HUGE need for the Twins, never mind if he suddenly figures it out and becomes a starter (because, in essence, the bulk of the argument to keep Hicks is a hope he simply "figures it out" at some point).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Why are we defaulting back to Robinson? The dude isn't even in the organization because the Twins RELEASED him. To me, this indicates the Twins are betting on Buxton or Kepler to step forward. Given how that worked out with Hicks, that's not a plan that gives me comfort but come on, Shane Robinson isn't even in the organization right now. Let's can the hyperbole a bit. (yes, I'm aware the Twins want to get Robinson back on a MiLB deal but if they wanted him on the 40 man, they would have kept him)
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the defensive differences between the two, that means Murphy is hugely more valuable. That's akin to implying Arcia is a better player than Buxton if he OPSes .025 higher.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If we're talking about platooning Hicks, there's no reason not to be bullish on this trade. A young cost controlled catcher > A short side platoon corner outfielder The hope is that Hicks figures out RHP, not that he's a 150 PA platoon player. If you think he's a permanent platoon guy, Murphy is more valuable to the Twins.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I hold out hope for two things: 1. He flew through the MiLB system, especially considering he's a catcher. There's possibly some upside left in there. 2. He hasn't received consistent playing time. Maybe some of that latent upside will emerge with more regular plate appearances. But overall, I'm underwhelmed with the trade. I think it's a relatively close swap of matching talent but it's not the direction I wanted to see Ryan take the team this offseason.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Statistical noise made to support a negative view of the trade (and this is coming from someone who doesn't care for the trade). Murphy has roughly 140 PAs both at home and on the road. Too small a sample to matter. He has almost identical XBH numbers at home and on the road. Yankee Stadium isn't helping him there. The difference is BA-driven. He has a ~.070 BABIP advantage at home. That's just luck. I see troubling numbers with that BABIP but the home/road splits are statistical noise in a SSS.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Not the route I would have taken but let's face it... Hicks is likely to be a role player himself. His troubles against RHP aren't likely to go away. But overall, meh.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Why are people even a little bit concerned about a Kepler logjam? The guy had a breakout season but doesn't have a single AAA game under his belt. Max can spend most or all of 2016 in Rochester and it's not a big deal.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, I think you're right. I was thinking 2011 for some reason.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    A few things here: 1) Different scouting director, different GM. To expect the same process isn't sound analysis. 2) I've heard - albeit second or third hand - that many of the Twins' scouting reports on Nishioka were not positive. I have no idea what the hell happened there but I'm not sure it was the fault of scouts.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, all of this. The Twins received a lot of half seasons from young players with potential and Duffey was the only guy who vastly surpassed expectations. One or two guys might regress but as a unit, improvement should happen in 2016. And then there's Berrios. He could contribute nothing or he could be RoY. There are reasons to be optimistic about this team and there are reasons to be concerned... But claiming a WS in 2-3 seasons is a pipe dream isn't a sound assessment of the franchise. It's a week into the offseason and the 2016 squad already looks better than their 2015 unit (essentially replacing Hunter with Park, an upside guy who should be able to match Hunter's meager overall line even if things go horribly wrong).
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's a bluff, I think it's hedging a bet. It feels like Ryan doesn't want to go into 2016 with Plouffe on the roster but if he can't move him for fair value, he's willing to shuffle players around and make it work.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This team just came off an 83 win season largely fueled by cost-controlled players. Yeah, they were a bit lucky last year but there's a lot of talent on this team with more coming next season. What happens if the Twins sign Wieters, a solid relief arm, and Berrios pitches to his ceiling? You don't think that's a legit contender? I do.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's pointless to compare them. They're not even from the same country and league, never mind their wildly different performances, swings, and player profiles. They weren't signed by the same GM and they weren't scouted under the same director. We may as well compare Joe Mauer and Chris Herrman. At least they once played the same position. There's reason to be concerned about anyone who comes out of the KBO. That has absolutely nothing to do with Nishioka.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Any time you can move a fringe 40 man backup guy for a player in the low minors, that's a win. Kick the can down the road and clear roster space. Nice move.
×
×
  • Create New...