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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that's the dilemma. If we "leave them alone", these terrible people don't stop doing terrible things. They simply stop doing terrible things to us.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Another example of why projections are broken. I'm sure those Wieters projections are accounting for his partial seasons due to TJ surgery. The OPS may be right but those 370 PAs are probably wrong. Any guy can get injured but Wieters is as likely to play a full season as any other 30 year old catcher. Wieters has good reason to bet on himself. He's a formerly injured player who appears to have recovered and shouldn't be any bigger an injury risk than any other catcher his age.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's a good sign and I doubt the Orioles are fretting over the $16m they now owe him.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's a fair argument, I'm just not ready to lose Kepler or Berrios. Berrios is the team's only legit hope for a front line starter and I like Kepler better than either Rosario or Hicks (I may have even traded Rosario before Hicks). Anyone else in the system is fair game, IMO... But the problem is that no one else in the system is far enough along in their career and/or good enough to bring back a truly talented catcher. Maybe you can make a case for Gordon but I don't see it yet.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm glad they didn't tap into the farm, as any competent catcher is going to cost Kepler or Berrios. I think both will be better than Hicks, possibly as early as this season. That's why I wanted to roll the dice on Wieters. It's not that I liked Wieters so much, it's that I hated the price of everyone else (not including Murphy, who never even crossed my mind).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought he'd get Nolasco money. Four years, $50-ish million. I'm somewhat shocked he took the QO. I think this is a sign he wasn't interested in a long term deal unless the offer was outrageous. He's willing to bet on himself and try again next offseason.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Assuming no injury is the problem there. Plus, do you really care that much about an extra $2m a year if you get to relocate your family to one city for a half decade with $60m in your pocket? There's a lot to be said about certainty and diminishing paycheck returns when one is already filthy rich. $2m a year doesn't seem like a lot if you're making a guaranteed $13m a year for four years.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    A team can offer a QO indefinitely. That's why the resulting salary is so high.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I know, I'm just surprised Wieters took the QO. I felt he was almost a lock to explore FA.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. I wonder if Ryan talked to Wieters' agent - I assume he talked to Pierzynski's - and decided to go the Murphy route because the catcher market was closing down so quickly. It's pretty strange. Three catchers moved or signed and it's not even November 15th yet.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see it happening without an injury. Rosario is a given. Arcia needs to be on the roster. Buxton has both MLB and AAA time. Then comes Kepler. I don't see Max jumping over the guys in front of him to open the season, though I think we could see him relatively early in the season (May) if one of the other guys is struggling.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    On this, I think we can all agree.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Good point on wRC+. Though it's a bit odd Murphy has two part time seasons with a wRC+ of 94, 99... And the Steamer projection is 84. I just can't fully support projections, no matter whether they agree or disagree with my personal feelings on the player. I think they have a use in the team aggregate but player-by-player, I think they're limited and not much more than a statistical shot in the dark.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I fully realize that... But given how WAR projections are tied to projected PAs - which are wildly inaccurate for former part-time players - it's really the only way to break down the player's season (and I'm not the one who first brought up WAR as a measuring stick for these two players). My point isn't that Murphy is leaps and bounds better than Hicks, it was simply "they're pretty close once you adjust for one guy's dearth of playing time". It's akin to blasting a guy for only driving in 50 runs in 80 games while applauding the guy who drove in 100 in 160 games. It's a counting stat; you need to adjust for the team sitting one guy on the bench, especially if that guy isn't expected to sit the following season.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. I'm much more concerned with what Murphy does in Target Field than what Hicks does in Yankee Stadium.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. The guy has been the most active GM in baseball this offseason. Now, that still kinda plays to Ryan's conservative nature a bit (I'd call this offseason "passive-aggressive") because he's getting out in front of everything and shoring up the holes he wants to fill before anyone else does anything (which allows him to sleep comfortably through January) but at least he's trying something. It's like we've forgotten what the "bad" Terry Ryan looks like in just two offseasons. He's picking up wild card players and ignoring the Kevin Correias, Tim Stauffers, and Mike Pelfreys of the baseball world. Both of the major moves this offseason have been for players with some kind of upside in them (one more than the other, obviously). While it's not exactly the progress I see in my dream scenario, I'm not going to shake my fist at the sky about it, either.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough but I think you're underrating Murphy a bit by assuming Hicks will be more valuable going forward. Murphy didn't exactly light up MiLB but he posted a respectable .733 OPS while graduating to MLB as a 22 year old and never received consistent playing time in New York. The last time the Twins traded for a "role player who graduated to MLB at a young age but never received consistent playing time" and made most of us groan (I didn't really mind that trade either), his name was Eduardo Escobar. But if Murphy gets The guy has enough upside to be above replacement level as a regular every day player, which is a pretty big step forward at the position. Will he do that with the Twins? I don't know but I'd certainly give him the opportunity to play over Suzuki to find out. All in all, this trade looks a lot like the Liriano or Jepsen trade. It's a shuffling of underwhelming players and not worth half the vitriol it's receiving in this thread. Do I *like* the trade? No, not really... I didn't care for the Jepsen trade much, either... Or the Liriano trade, though I accepted Francisco's value was nearly non-existent at that point. I just don't see the point in getting that riled up about it, either. This is one of those trades that make me say "meh" and sit back to see how it unfolds. In the case of the Liriano and Jepsen trades, it worked out pretty well for the Twins. Hopefully, their scouting department came through again and Murphy will be a solid contributor to the 2016-2019 squads.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Wait. So I point that that Murphy is younger, has accumulated more WAR per PA than Hicks both in 2015 and for their careers, and I'm the guy who is wish-casting? I don't particularly like Murphy. The difference between you and me is that I'm realistic about Hicks, too. They're both flawed, underwhelming players with upside (I'd argue Hicks' ceiling is higher but his floor is also lower). Feel free to not like the trade. I don't particularly like the trade myself but when objectively looking at the deal, it is not a terrible deal for the Twins (or the Yankees). JR Murphy is younger than Hicks and has accumulated more fWAR per PA in his career. That's what I pointed out. That cannot be argued, as the numbers are clear as day. Which brings up the question... Given the reality of those numbers, what WAR projection system would give Hicks a significant enough advantage to matter and why don't you question the accuracy of such a system? FTR, BB-Ref has Murphy sporting a higher 2016 OPS than Hicks while FG's Steamer projection has Murphy rocking all of one PA in 2016. Obviously, that single plate appearance is going to... uh... skew the WAR projection just a bit.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I don't think he's an idiot at all. He made some mistakes but I certainly don't think he's an idiot.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I must be forgetting all those times I was clamoring to see Hunter out in right field down the stretch. Oh, that's right. I wanted to see him benched.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Those players would cost Berrios because the opposing GM would have to be an idiot NOT to demand Berrios. He's the only established top 100 guy in the high minors (assuming Buxton opens in Minnesota). Cost controlled MLB players at a position of scarcity require a big payout. Berrios is the only guy who fits the bill.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Wieters is the only realistic option on that list. Lucroy costs you Berrios. Norris costs you Berrios. That is the reality of the situation. And you're concerned about giving up Hicks? Berrios is ten times more valuable to this org than Hicks.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Come on, Dave. Organizational depth. The Twins had a handful of prospects should Hunter fail (and I never wanted Hunter in the first place). The Twins have no such fallback option at catcher.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, the Twins had nearly a half dozen OF prospects, many of whom stepped up as the season progressed. Number of catching prospects? Uh... I think we both know the answer to that one. The Hunter signing just didn't bother me that much. I wanted to see him play less than he did but I couldn't get too worked up about it (though I wouldn't have signed him at all if I was the GM).
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Pierzynski was possibly an option. He's also an *incredibly risky* option that leaves the Twins hanging their ass out the window if a 39 year old catcher (shockingly) loses his ability to play baseball at the highest level. If that's a risk you're willing to take, so be it... But you better be ready to explain to a fan base why you relied on two over the hill catchers to propel an 83 win team to the next level if catcher is a giant black hole again in 2016 (and I'd give the odds of a Suzuki/Pierzynski platoon a 50% chance of being terrible). My first choice would have been to open the pocket book on Wieters. Barring that happening, I don't really see a better "fix" than going after a guy with marginal upside by trading from a position of strength. The catching market is awful. The fact some of you are even talking about AJ-freakin-Pierzynski says all that needs to be said about Ryan's options this offseason.
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