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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh I didn't mean to imply that the news doesn't suck. But it may be the correct decision. Unfortunate, though.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    More like "fewer than 3-4 wins/losses". A manager worth 10 wins would be a $50m value to a baseball franchise and would be one of the biggest Moneyball coups in the history of the game.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, I see the article now. Okay, don't really like that move but I have faith Falvey and Levine know more about the situation than I do.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Jay moved to the pen?
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I view front line starters as championship pieces. Right now, I'm looking at "not terrible" pieces. I think this team would benefit more from two 4/$75m contracts than a single 7/$150m contract. Lots of bad players on this team. More could be gained from two 4 WAR players than one 7 WAR player who will likely fade to a 2-3 WAR player within a few seasons. And it's a lot less risky to sign those two good players than a single great player.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    If you can dig up the data to figure that out, I'd love to see it... But if there was a marked difference in innings pitched, it should show up in some capacity. In a few years, the NL actually had a slight advantage in IP over the AL.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Except I just showed that NL starters don't throw fewer innings than their AL counterparts so they're not being pulled more quickly than the equivalent AL starter. And 1/3rd of a run per game sounds about right to me, as from my readings over the years, NL starters can expect a .25-.5 increase in ERA if they transition to the AL.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It's why the best Superman stories are usually of the mental variety, of Superman's internal conflict. See All-Star Superman or any good Lex Luthor story. Putting Supes in a slugfest gets boring because there aren't many villains who can hang with him and it's literally a slugfest; one person hitting another forever because both are nearly invulnerable. It becomes repetitive quickly. Which is why it's unbelievable we haven't seen Brainiac in a Superman flick yet.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    The difference is minimal, not enough to matter. The median AL team threw 919 IP as starters last season, the median NL team threw 895 IP as starters last season. The previous season, it was 941 IP in the AL, 943 IP in the NL. In 2014, it was 957 IP in the AL, 976 IP in the NL. The reason why NL starters have lower ERAs is Occam's Razor. Instead of facing an .800 OPS masher 2-3 times a game, they face a .500 OPS bunter.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, Gibson and Santiago are close to the same guy. Gibson probably has a smidgeon higher ceiling but they're roughly the same age and Santiago has a longer track record of decent performance.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Only if another team claims him.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, but the Twins have a high chance of failure. Normally, I'd be comfortable with 6-7 rotation pieces to start the season but with this rotation, I want 7-8 because I expect the turnover to be high. Gibson, Hughes, and Santiago all have ceilings of mediocrity (or slightly better), which is valuable to the Twins... but they all have high chances of implosion, too. Basically, I want some protection as a bridge to the second half of the season, when one of Romero or Gonsalves will hopefully be ready. Santiago provides that bridge whereas Vogelsong is the type of guy you bring in when things go horribly wrong. You don't start the season with that guy.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    No worries, fixed it for you. I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, I was legitimately curious. I thought I was right but wasn't sure.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"? Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology. But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm actually okay with (virtually) guaranteeing Santiago a spot in the rotation on Opening Day. He has a relatively long track record of acceptable performance. Given May's injury, the Santiago tender looks like a good decision. At the very least, the team can get six weeks of pitching out of him and reevaluate. Even if he's below average, there's a good chance he sticks in the rotation because Hughes and/or Gibson are even worse. But if Santiago is gone, any failure from Hughes or Gibson becomes a pretty bad situation for the Twins, as their short-term rotation depth drops to zero if both Berrios and Mejia are in the rotation.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I've turned mean on Facebook. I can't do it anymore. I tried reasoning with various friends and family members who support the man but now I'm just calling them names. I'm done being polite about it; they're terrible people and I'm going to let them know it. I honestly hope more than a few of them unfriend me. This isn't an ideological difference anymore, this has clearly become a white hat vs. black hat situation. They didn't listen to my measured, reasoned, factual arguments in the past, now they can see the pure contempt I feel for them.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, which was kinda the point I was making with the above comparisons. There are a few ways Eddie can improve, each of which will result in different, better performance. He can either reel in his pitch selection or improve his in-zone contact or both.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Except he doesn't when you look at it. The guy had a 78% contact rate inside the zone last season. Suberb bat control would be Mauer-esque with a low 90s contact rate inside the zone. Or even Ben Revere, who is also in the low 90s IIRC. I wouldn't consider anyone elite with that contact rate below 87-88. Eddie has a long way to go to get to that point.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Similar, but a little bit worse. Francoeur has a lower swing rate outside the zone and a higher contact rate inside the zone.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    They weren't meant to be direct comparisons, just an illustration how Rosario needs to alter his approach in one of a few ways to show more success. Just because he profiles in contact rate similarly to Miguel Cabrera doesn't mean he'll turn into Miguel Cabrera. It'll just mean he's Eddie Rosario, only a little bit better than he is today.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    A comparison of where Rosario is making mistakes, shown with comparisons of players with very different profiles: Player name: Outside Zone Swing % / Zone Contact % / Outside Zone Contact % Miguel Cabrera: 30% / 67% / 87% Joe Mauer: 23% / 77% / 91% Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79% Rosario is swinging at way too many pitches outside the strike zone but his contact rate on those pitches is acceptable. So he either needs to stop swinging at those pitches - which would likely see an increase in his contact rate outside the zone - or he can take this route: Vladimir Guerrero: 39% / 67% / 89% Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79% As we all know, Vlad never saw a pitch he didn't like. But notice how he hammered pitches in the zone, a full 10 points higher than Rosario. So, if Eddie remains intent on swinging at everything, he needs to put wood on the ball when it's in the strike zone. Two paths, both can have success, but both require adjustment for Rosario.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't believe he needs a decent BB rate, which I would consider somewhere in the 7-8% range. If Rosario puts wood on the ball more often and walks 5-6% of the time, he could be a valuable player. He needs to improve his BB rate a bit but I see it as more of a swing decision issue than pursuing walks. If Eddie stops swinging at sliders in the dirt a foot wide of the plate, his BB rate will increase a bit but more importantly, he'll stop striking out on unhittable pitches and start putting the ball in play with more frequency. Rosario likes to swing and that's fine - not everything is about the BB - but Eddie needs to stop swinging at pitches he cannot hit. But he'd also be the kind of player you usher out of the organization while he has value, because players like that tend to nosedive hard and fast as they approach or pass 30 years old. A loss of a step and/or a loss of bat speed turns them into pumpkins in a hurry.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I've seen GitS several times but I never loved the story. Hard pass on this one.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    That ERA is also ignoring that Vogelsong is a career NL pitcher while Albers is a career AL pitcher. The actual difference is smaller, maybe close to nonexistent. Lots of NL pitchers implode when they reach the AL.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'd prefer to see Buxton back off in exhibition games but I've learned that some athletes don't turn that stuff off and on based on situation. They're 100% GO TIME in every inning of every game. And that's okay. I'd rather see that than a player routinely take off plays or jog down the line on a grounder.
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