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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It doesn't take much effort, as the entire "conspiracy" is that Trump paid for a "buy and kill" story through the National Enquirer, run by David Pecker. MacDougal didn't try to extort Trump for money, she sold it to the NE, expecting it to be published. And it appears Cohen is flipping on Trump, so we don't need to think too hard about the meaning, we'll likely see testimony/depositions explaining its exact meaning.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    This team is infuriating. If they just take care of business against one of the worst teams in baseball in Kansas City, they're back in this thing against Cleveland. Argh. I don't think I've ever been as mad at a baseball team as I am the 2018 Twins. At least in seasons like 2016, you just knew they'd be bad and could find whatever enjoyment there was to be found in the occasional win.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    This misses the mark for a variety of reasons. 1. Gunn talked about how he used to be versus how he is today a multitude of times long before any of this crap played out. He was a different person, a guy who liked to rile up people with outrageous statements. After all, this is a man who came from the Troma world and outlandishness is pretty much the bread and butter of that genre. 2. He said, did, and later stopped saying all those things before Disney hired him. 3. Disney hired him anyway, knowing full well where he came from and who he used to be. 4. The environment in which Gunn said those things is a different environment than today. It should not be lost on us that as the world became more toxic, Gunn took a different route and decided that those kinds of comments were no longer outlandish and shocking, they were all too real and needed to end. This is an act of pure cowardice from Disney. They took a guy with a checkered past and let him make them literally billions of dollars. Then they ran away scared the moment anyone pointed out that he used to be a dick, even though Gunn is the first person who admits he used to be a dick and made changes to stop being a dick. He has talked about it often. So do we forgive focused, intentional change or not? If we don't, what's the ****ing point of any of this?
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree except with the part where the Democratic party is wrong for moving left. The party needs to move left because collectively, they're the protectors of the status quo in a nation that absolutely despises the status quo. The party needs to shed that notion with ideas about how to make things better for everyone. That means moving left on a lot of really crappy, "please everyone and no one" ideas like the ACA.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno if I'm late to the party but CNN has the Cohen audio of Trump agreeing to pay off the National Enquirer to keep Karen MacDougal quiet. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/07/24/cohen-trump-audio-recording-cuomo-vpx.cnn Will this move the needle significantly? No, probably not... but this is a man that didn't win the popular vote and isn't up for re-election. If Democrats have a brain amongst them, they will leverage the **** out of this non-stop flow of garbage to indict the entire GOP and their complicity this November. They don't need to erode Trump's base, they need to kick independents in line and work their base into a lather.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll be disappointed if it's not GM. They have the Bolt platform, which was designed to be modular. If GM doesn't have a 300 mile range, sleek Buick on showroom floors within the next 24 months (preferably 12-18 months), they have failed. The Bolt was a good starting point to get your feet under you and serve the market with an affordable offering at production scale. Now they need to expand upon that and they need to move quickly.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, Tesla is *definitely* one of those companies with the potential to disrupt. I simply don't know if their ultimate disruption will be to the automotive market, especially given their massive, repeated manufacturing failures and delays. In the face of what GM is doing, I think Tesla can be marginalized pretty easily unless they get their **** together in a big way, immediately.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's a fair stance to take. But Amazon and Facebook are pretty bad examples to use to defend tech valuations. Facebook had its **** together from day one and Amazon basically reinvented itself every year for a decade to become a behemoth no one expected or saw coming, at least in its present form. Most companies are pretty predictable, even Facebook was pretty predictable (in a mostly good way). Amazon was wild west-ing it out there for years and making it up as they went along. If you take the average tech company (which is probably massively overvalued for no exceptional reason), those expectations aren't repeatable.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I think they'll do okay in the long run. But only okay, at least in the auto business. I think their real potential is in battery tech on a larger scale than automotive. So, that would put me pretty down on them given their current valuation, which is absurd (along with most other new tech companies, which is why I stepped out of the market last year). If Tesla's stock was $100-150 a share, I'd be a lot more positive about them in the long run. But, like so many other tech stocks, someone will have to pay the piper sooner or later. Either their profits catch up to their valuations while their stock stays flat (possible), or their valuations decline over time to match their profits (IMO, more likely). Either way, long term investors lose, comparatively speaking. And things can go to hell in a hurry if the economy stumbles and everyone realizes that a company can no longer be rationally valued at 4-5x their reasonable cap in a market where their profits have zero chance of increasing over the mid-term. A company like Tesla could see their stocks drop enormously overnight were that to happen because, unlike companies like Facebook who can weather a bad market because they're actually making money, an economic lull would basically ensure that Tesla had zero chance of turning a profit in the foreseeable future.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Picking up a league average starter with mild upside on what is essentially a one year contract is rarely a waste, nor is it odd.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Wait, so we're upset because a guy apologized for saying horrible things a decade ago? Am I missing something? He apologized, good for him. It seemed like a legit apology, too.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. He’s so dynamic that the game is worse off when he’s not playing.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    First paragraph: yep. Second paragraph: yep.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Good article. It reinforces the concept I've had over the past few years that one of the best things that could happen is to see Roe v Wade overturned (which won't happen outright, the decision will unfortunately be chipped away at). Remove 5% of the most active GOP base and things buckle in a hurry. If you placate the rabid cross-section of conservatives who are currently motivated to vote solely on that issue and give them a reason to sit out for awhile as they do a victory lap, the country turns bright blue in a hurry and for quite some time. Not that I believe that will solve all our problems because modern liberalism has a host of problems... but things would get a hell of a lot better than they are now. Not that I *really* want to see this happen, but I think it would do far more good than harm in the grand scheme of things.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that the next Dem needs to gain just 100,000 votes in the right places to beat the guy. Trump is a menace, for sure... He has his rabid supporters, for sure... But he lost the popular vote and won only because he skimmed by in several key states. Of course, now he has the incumbent advantage but it's not going to take much to remove him from office, the Dems just need to not be idiots (which is, unfortunately, a pretty high bar for them to clear lately).
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Removing bad starts to make a guy look good is a bit different than saying “this guy has been really good for 2.5 months if you wipe out ONE awful start”. Because what’s more valuable, a guy who pitches to a 4.3 ERA consistently or a guy who posts a 3.2 ERA and grenades once every dozen or so starts? At this point, I think ignoring Lynn’s April is pretty easy, as we all know why it happened (and I hope it teaches future players to take a contract and not miss even one damned day of Spring Training).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m generally against trading Gibson but roughly 22-23 players on this roster should be shopped this deadline. But I think this is a buyer’s market so I’m not holding my breath on a good return.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I made it pretty clear that I was addressing the consistency argument. I also said in this very thread that I'm leaning toward keeping Escobar over Dozier due to those other reasons you listed. I clarified my point again just two posts above the post you originally quoted.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Because some of these writers don't have the time to really examine what a player has done through the season, they just scan stat lines. Lynn has been better than a fifth starter since April. Much better. If you exclude the solitary disaster start he's had since the end of April, his ERA is around 3.2 in 12 starts. It looks a lot worse at a glance because he had one horrific 1.2 IP start in early July.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, let me say it again: My Escobar split post was in response to people claiming he's consistent and that's a reason to keep him over Dozier. The only year Eduardo was consistent, he posted the same first half numbers as Dozier while Brian absolutely destroyed him in the second half. Please keep the post in context. It is not an argument whether to keep Dozier and/or Escobar, it's a rebuttal to a terrible (and incorrect) reason why to keep one over the other. Also, you edited out the part where I explained that in the post you quoted.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That was the other factor I was wondering. It’s hard to demote a guy this close to free agency due to the five year rule. Thanks for doing the math on that.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    And my point is that "it's not". Just to drive the point home, these are the first/second half splits of Escobar and Dozier from last year (literally the only "consistent" year Escobar has had in his career): Escobar: .759/.757 (consistent!) Dozier: .745/.985 (what?!?!) Which player do you want next year?
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    So good. It mixes so many ideas and really challenges where this country is going, mostly in a good way.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    And this is where I think Fangraphs' WAR for pitching breaks. Using FIP for bad pitchers breaks at a certain point when a pitcher is so awful that using things like expected probability of hits falling just goes to pieces. The batting average on line drives is what, like .720 or something? Berrios' 2016 was a -1.6 rWAR. That was just Berrios. And he deserved every lick of that negative value. Using expected probability works for the majority because that's how it's accumulated, by the majority. But when you reach the fringes, you're assuming those majority numbers apply to the fringes. And that doesn't make sense.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    A completely fair take. I disagree but it's not a terrible strategy.
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