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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins (and other teams) often have multiple pitchers who combine for -2 wins in the same "spot". IIRC, even the Dodgers did it just a year or two ago when they were a very good team overall. No, a front office generally doesn't allow one player to be so bad for so long that they accrue -2 wins. But that doesn't mean the guy who replaces that -1.2 win player isn't a -0.6 player. Or that the guy who replaces that second bad play isn't a -0.4 player. The negatives accumulate.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not my point. The stats were not to show that something is wrong with Escobar, it's to point out that highlighting Escobar's "consistency" as a reason to keep him over Dozier is a bad argument. Dozier is the better player. He was before and it's likely he'll end 2018 as a better player. That doesn't mean Dozier is a better fit for the 2019+ Twins but it does mean the Escobar "consistency" argument is garbage.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    An interesting thing I've never really thought about. An option on Odorizzi does kinda change his situation a bit.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    If you want the best chance to win a World Series, trade everyone, start over, and try to win a Series in 2023. Berrios will bring an enormous haul by himself. That's the position the Twins are in right now. The Twins aren't the 2011 Astros but have a ton of upside in the next couple of years, though it's a risky proposition. Work with what you've got. Because what you're arguing is that 2023 is more important than 2019-20, though you're not really committing to it.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It can be a huge difference if the guy you replace him with is -2 wins while Gibson is +3 wins. That doesn't mean Gibson was amazing, it means his replacement was absolutely atrocious. The default is not neutral wins, as we've seen with so many Twins teams over the past few years. Gibson will not make or break the team by himself but his roster spot likely means you won't bleed out a potential postseason spot if you trade him. He's a complementary player at an absolutely crucial position, particularly on this team.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Not caring about the future would be calling for a Lewis trade or looting Thorpe/Gonsalves/Rooker/etc. for rentals. The Kyle Gibson situation isn't even in the same league as that argument.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    You can say that about almost any player, though. My point is that a good Gibson is worth a few wins on a staff that has been notoriously weak for a decade. I'm not banking on Gibson being a stud, I'm keeping the option open that other players will be studs and Gibson will prevent a shaky staff from stopping those players from reaching the postseason.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    This brings us back around to the classic Spring Training argument people on this forum have every year: You can never have "too many" starters. If you have fewer than eight ready for MLB hitters on Opening Day, you're understaffed. Do the Twins have eight or more starters you're comfortable watching pitch in Minnesota?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree. Where we disagree is that "forgetting about the future" involves the loss of Kyle Gibson without getting prospects in return. If Kyle Gibson is who he is, the Twins QO him and either get him back or get a first round supplemental. But come on... It's absurd to suggest that I'm arguing the future doesn't matter when I'm saying that it's completely okay to not trade Kyle Gibson and see what happens.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. It's not as if I'd throw a fit if they traded Odorizzi, I just don't see the point.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're another team, what would you give up for Gibson? A top 25 prospect? I wouldn't. So what would you give up? A top 50 prospect? I'd hesitate on that, too. So exactly what kind of game-changer are you expecting here? Gibson will get a decent return but nothing guaranteed, not even close to it. And even if you get a good player in return, you usually have to deal with a player sucking up negative WAR appearances for awhile, which hurts your team before it helps. I don't care about the chance of advancing in the 2019 postseason right now, I care about the chance of getting there. Because none of us know how 2019 will shake out. What happens if Buxton comes back strong? Or Sano? Or Rooker comes out of nowhere? Or Gonsalves is a stud? Put yourself in the situation to succeed so that if young players turn you from an 85 win team into a 95 win team, you're ready for it. The time has passed to sit on your hands and wait for the prospects. Let's see a real attempt to win some ****ing baseball games. If you end the season with just 83 wins and miss the postseason and the most significant free agent casualty is Kyle Gibson, **** it. I don't care.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... no. The first five picks do not have the same chance of success as the 23rd pick. And the first couple of picks have an even larger advantage. You're right that the MLB draft is more unpredictable but it's not entirely unpredictable.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    He could be playing with a nagging injury, he might be scuffling for any number of reasons. I simply don't have enough information to definitively declare what should be done with him. And it's enough of a borderline case where I'm not going to get upset about it.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Damn it, Seth. I don't like doing this stuff but I guess I kinda have to just bite down and do it. 1.) Where are you from? Oh, good god. Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Utah, California. I consider myself a Minnefornian. 2.) Age Range? 41, I think. Honestly, I had to really think about it for a few seconds. 3.) What brought you to Twins Daily? A cesspool of humanity called "Battle Your Tail Off". 4.) Highest level of baseball/softball played? Little League. I bailed out because I wasn't Mormon and they wouldn't let me play. 80s/90s Utah sucked pretty hard for gentiles, folks. 5.) Favorite Twins Player, and favorite underappreciated Twins player, and if you want, favorite current Twins player? I grew up in the Puckett era so that's a given. When it comes to under-appreciated, Brad Radke. 6.) Favorite non-Twins Daily site/authors? Whatever. I just kinda read around, don't really follow anyone/thing in particular. 7.) Favorite Twitter follows? It's an even bigger cesspool than BYTO and apparently, that's where I draw the line. 8.) Other interests outside of baseball. Art, comics, general geekery. 9.) Favorite part of Twins Daily. Forums. 10.) Tell us what we can do better. What features or other topics would you like to see in-season or out of season? Find a nanny for your tech guy. 11.) Have you been to any of the Twins Daily "events?" Uh... yes.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, and that's fair.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the one situation where a bat flip is kinda fun. How different is it to flip a bat than pump your fist as you round second base in a ****ing huge situation? It's not.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    This is one of the (many) things that I don't understand about sports. Some people get outraged over someone kicking their ass and flipping a bat in response. Me? I don't care. If you get enjoyment from it, good for you. I simply do not care about it. And I generally don't protest things I don't care about.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're spot-on why Clinton didn't absolutely annihilate Trump... but I think she wins if she doesn't make so many left-leaning people say "meh" and take a pass. Sure, the cities showed up but we're so much more liberal that it doesn't matter. What Clinton failed to do was inspire the people who are leftist but not rabid about it, which is part of your point. She couldn't inspire left-leaners who aren't in cities because she didn't talk to them. In fact, she called many of their friends and family "deplorables". I'm sure some agreed with that take but it was absolutely awful politicking. But the bigger problem going forward is that the Democratic party has abandoned the rural (mostly white) vote entirely. They don't need to cater to them at the expense of others, they just need to talk to them like they're people and address their real problems in honest ways. What the Democratic Party badly needs is a 40- or 50-something Bernie Sanders with a sharp wit to just harass and **** with Trump on his level. Damn you, Al Franken.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    He's 25 and it's midseason in a year where half of baseball is intentionally tanking. The front office probably thinks there's a good chance he'll be claimed. Not that I'm terribly worried about losing Granite but he's not the type of guy I give up for no reason.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    This is a weird take. The Twins aren't terrible while huge swathes of baseball are absolutely putrid this year. The Twins also have a nice mix of good young players which they are obviously not going to trade. You want to talk about how little they think of some teams? The Royals are the worst team in baseball and have two players on the list. The Orioles are in a virtual lock with the Royals and have six players, though (obviously) of higher value than the Twins (again, because the Twins aren't trading everything on the roster while the Orioles basically need to move 25 players if possible). The White Sox are the third worst team in baseball and have three players on the list.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not ready to punt on 2019 by trading both Odorizzi and Gibson (particularly Gibson). This team is going to have a boatload of money going into the offseason and it's unlikely 2019 Cleveland is better than the current Cleveland team. The rest of the division is a joke and will continue to be a joke next season. We can talk about competing with New York, Boston, and Houston but I just want to see the damned postseason again. The risk of competing and losing players next season outweighs the modest returns on those players this season, IMO. Build the best damned team you can, run with it, and hope the young players take the necessary step forward.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    A completely fair take and the way I am leaning right now. Dozier is the better player, that shouldn't even be in question. Whether he's more valuable to this particular team is the real question.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I really don't understand where some of you are getting Escobar's "consistency". OPS by year: 2015: .754 2016: .618 2017: .758 2018: .834 First/Second half OPS splits: 2015: .688/.816 2016: .658/.573 2017: .759/.757 2018: ?? In only one year was Escobar pretty consistently okay... unless you also want to give him credit for "consistency" the year he was consistently awful. But even in that consistently "okay" season, he was so far below Dozier's season line that the two are not comparable in value. I like Escobar but let's not build fake narratives to support keeping him.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    My post was too short. In two weeks, the Twins will know whether to sell. If Dozier is still rolling, they’ll also have a better trade piece on their hands if selling is the obvious answer.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but I suspect we’ll learn a lot in two weeks.
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