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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been looking at the blog section of the site lately and see that it hasn't gotten any TLC since launch. I made some small changes to how the blogs are listed in the mobile section of the site this morning and that got me thinking... I'm not a blogger. I should ask you bloggers what you want changes you'd like to see made to the site. I'm open to any suggestions, though obviously, time constraints may apply to whether the requested changes are feasible or not. So, what would you like to see? More customizability in the blog sections, better image support, different sorting methods? Give me your feedback on anything blog-related and I'll compile the most requested changes and see what I can do about it. Please don't suggest "carry over blog comments to the front page", though... I'd love to do that and it's a long-term goal but it simply isn't feasible right now. It'll get done at some point but that change will require a complete rethinking of how comments are generated and posted.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not really fair. Going into last spring, people on this board had convinced themselves that Gibson had zero chance of making the rotation out of ST because the Twins already had "their guy" chosen on March 1. I'm willing to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt here. I hope it's an open competition until mid-March and then they start narrowing it down as we approach April. I just want to see the best guy get the job (though I'm hoping that "best guy" is Trevor May).
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    As if on cue, BP releases catcher framing analysis back to 1988. Mauer rates pretty well. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25514
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Martinez was regarded as an awful catcher and moved away from the position because nobody wanted him to catch. Mauer was regarded as a very good catcher and moved away from the position because he rattled his brain one too many times. Maybe not such a good comparison. If not for Mauer's FBS*, he'd still be crouching behind the dish, racking up caught games. *Fuzzy Brain Syndrome
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    ICK. ICK ICK ICK.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks for looking into this, Parker. I never bought into the "the shift is killing Mauer!" sentiment. Sure, he lost some XBH in 2014 and that hurts his slugging percentage quite a bit... But his BA? I don't buy that. He might lose a hit here and there but that doesn't explain away a .050 BA drop.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    He doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. In 2014, the median team OPS out of catcher was ~.675.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I studied projections, player models, and then compared it to division opponents. After hours of grueling study and number-crunching, I have determined that this is what it will take to return the Twins to competitiveness in 2015:
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the Twins are in a *much* better position to eat those contracts (annual rate, length of contract, Twins payroll capacity vs. Royals, etc) but it would have been *much* smarter to sign one James Shields than Santana/Nolasco, IMO. Doubly so when you look at the triumvirate of May/Meyer/Berrios the Twins have coming through the system. The Twins shouldn't be dipping their toe into Scherzer waters but I'd rather have one guy like Shields/Sanchez than the duo of Santana and Nolasco.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd stand up and cheer if that happened. It'd make them formidable in 2015-2016 but I can't see that deal working out in the long run (then again, I don't think the Nolasco/Santana signings are going to work out in the long run for the Twins, either).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Probably the most competitive division in baseball for that reason. No team stands out as a clear favorite, no team is penciled in for 90+ losses (some think the Twins might end up there but I don't really buy it, I think they're good for at least 75 wins). If the Royals manage to get Shields back, they're the only threat for 90 wins, IMO.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins had some solid young players in 2010. Mauer and Morneau, obviously. My point isn't that the Tigers will implode, it's that given the average age of their best players, it's not out of the realm of possibility. I think Detroit will be one of three ALC teams in the 81-85 win range: DET, KC, CLE. You can even toss the Whities in there if a few things break right for them. Obviously, the ALC won't have four teams in the 81-85 win range but going into the season, I think most of the division has a reasonable shot at that mark (including the Twins if things really go right for them). One of the teams will "break out" a bit and be better than that but on paper, this division is *really* tight.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see them finishing outside the top three if their luck is neutral. But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season. That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    That'd make them instant favorites in the Central by a pretty healthy margin, IMO.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeesh. Somehow I missed that Scherzer went to the Nationals. Yeah, I no longer think Detroit is going to win the division.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Look at where Bourn derives the bulk of his fWAR and then rethink why you believe he's ripe for a bounceback. Here are his DRS numbers from the past several years: 11, 30, -3, 24, 3, -6. So we have a guy with a middling bat, mediocre/subpar on-base ability, a guy who gets a lot of his offense from his legs and derives most of his WAR from defense. This same player is entering his age 32 season at an up-the-middle position. And you expect him to bounce back? I look at that guy and see a pretty routine - and expected - player decline.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Why should we expect a bounceback from Bourn? His numbers in 2014 (albeit in a shortened season) weren't far off his career numbers. He's basically a league average player that has two outlier seasons with a high WAR. He's a defensive-oriented up-the-middle player with a mediocre bat who is entering his age 32 season. If anything, Bourn is due to regress any minute now and when he does, there's a good chance it'll be ugly. He's a player on the wrong side of 30 who relies on his legs for offense. He doesn't hit for average, he's not particularly disciplined, and he doesn't have great power. I agree that Kipnis is probably due for a rebound season.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    That's all fine and dandy and I do believe that good bullpens tend to overperform pythag records over a season but... The Royals were 22-25 in one run games last season. This argument doesn't really pass the smell test. IMO, bullpens can help pythag record differential but +5 is a pretty huge difference. I wouldn't put money on the Royals repeating that a second time. Add in the loss of Shields and his annual consumption of innings and things start to stack against the Royals repeating their 2014 campaign. It's not impossible because they're young and have room to develop but it's somewhat of a leap to just wash away 9+ wins between pythag and Shields and assume they're on the verge of a 90 win season (again, that's my argument... not whether the Royals will be good, whether they'll be as good or better than last year).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I think they'll be a pretty good team but they were lucky last year. Based on runs scored vs runs allowed, they were +5 wins over a luck neutral team. I didn't say everything went right last year. I said they need to compensate for 8-9 wins between luck and James Shields to be better than they were in 2014. That's a difficult hurdle to overcome. Not impossible but pretty difficult.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Until I read this. You're killing me, birdwatcher.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably my favorite statement in the history of the Twins Daily forums.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's going to require a lot to go right and virtually nothing to go wrong for the Royals to be better in 2015. They lost James Shields and finished +5 in Pythag last season. That's 8-9 games they need to compensate for in 2015 if luck-neutral. I expect the Royals to be around 85 wins. Good, not quite good enough to make the playoffs unless they get pretty lucky or the rest of the division falls completely flat.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I should add that if any team is going to completely implode in 2015, I think it'll be the Tigers. The Royals might slip but I think they'll still be good/decent. On the other hand, Detroit is primed for a couple of players to fall off a cliff.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are favored for last place and for good reason. If I was putting money on the Twins passing anybody, it'd be the Indians and/or White Sox, not the Royals. I'm not much of a prediction person but I see the ALC shaping up like this: DET KCR CHW CLE MIN (better but still last... maybe 75-78 wins) I hope it finishes more like: DET (they're old and can't sustain this forever so one more good year then collapse) KCR (gonna be a threat for awhile) MIN (progress!) CLE (just not in love with this team) CHW (not sure what to think of the Whities right now) I think this division is going to be *really* tight. No 90 win teams, no 90 loss teams. There's a good chance 88-89 wins takes this division.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Even if you do find a "summer job", chances are it's for peanuts because who needs a highly-paid employee for just a few months of the year? It's hard to find short-term development work (under three months) and development is a great fit for short-term employment based on the need employers have to ramp up/down project cycles. And even despite that fact, most employers would rather hire someone to develop 40 hours a week (whether they need it or not) than hire a part-time or temporary employee.
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