TD Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

lightfoot789 · February 19, 2015

Greatest TD headline of all time: WHOOPS, I FORGOT ABOUT BUXTON! More than one commentator has commentated about Sano, Walker et al about swinging at down and out sliders. The standing joke at our house was always, how do you get Torii Hunter or Michael Cuddyer out? Walk the bases full, and throw them three breaking balls in the dirt!

That being said: Walker has 6 Grand Slams in the last 2 seasons alone. He is also hitting almost .350 with bases loaded over that span. Who would have thought? Sano is a much better hitter and I would expect that most teams don't want to leave the bases loaded with Sano coming up. Dangerous proposition

lightfoot789 · February 19, 2015

The Twins Director of Player Personnel was on MLB network (radio)today and stated that any of the guys on the 40 man roster should be playing for a spot on the 25 man roster. He also said that if they show they can play then the Twins will bring them up. [We need people who can contribute] All these young pups are auditioning for 2015 basically. And it could be ASAP. Based on Spring Training

jimmer · February 19, 2015

I own some beachfront property in Kansas :-)

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

Platoon · February 19, 2015

That being said: Walker has 6 Grand Slams in the last 2 seasons alone. He is also hitting almost .350 with bases loaded over that span. Who would have thought? Sano is a much better hitter and I would expect that most teams don't want to leave the bases loaded with Sano coming up. Dangerous proposition

Not only was I being semi sarcastic, i was in no way suggesting that as a way to effectively get hitters out. I was pointing out that many young hitters come to the majors with that malady. And it is often exposed when they try and do to much in a big situation. The only cure is time and patience. And I remember both Hunter and Cuddyer as prime examples!

Platoon · February 19, 2015

I own some beachfront property in Kansas :-)

The guy who sold it to you is now the Director of Player Personnel for the Twins!

jimmer · February 19, 2015

The guy who sold it to you is now the Director of Player Personnel for the Twins!

how did you know? :-)

lightfoot789 · February 19, 2015

Not only was I being semi sarcastic, i was in no way suggesting that as a way to effectively get hitters out. I was pointing out that many young hitters come to the majors with that malady. And it is often exposed when they try and do to much in a big situation. The only cure is time and patience. And I remember both Hunter and Cuddyer as prime examples!

I got your semi sarcasim (truly). And in no way do I expect either to actually have that kind of productivity with the bases loaded when they arrive. I agree that the only cure is time and patience. I was merely talking the potential with those type of players. Sano is sooooo much further along than Walker in regards to both cure and patience. I'm willing to let Sano do his thing this year and put in some of that time, as we as fans put in that patience.

Thrylos · February 20, 2015

one concern with Sano is his strikeout rate. In the two rookie leagues, he struck out in over 26% of his plate appearances. In 2012 in Beloit, he struck out in 26% of his plate appearances. In the first half of the 2013 season in Ft. Myers, Sano struck out 25.1% of the time. After his promotion to Double-A, he struck out 29.3% of the time. Few players are successful with these kinds of strikeout rates, and yet, those who have been successful have generally been power hitters. However, I think that if Sano can, after a couple of seasons in the big leagues, reduce his strikeout rate to below 25%, he can be elite.

The strikeout rate on 20 year olds is overstated and does not really stand alone. You got to look at the K/BB ratio as well.

Here are a few age 20 (and a couple 21 year old) season numbers:

Sano: 27.2 K%, 2.18 K/BB
M. Cabrera: 24.3% K%, 3.36 K/BB
H. Killebrew: 39.4% K%, 3.90 K/BB
Mike Schmidt (21) : 24.6% K%, 2.44 K/BB
A. Belle (21): 27% K%, 2.84 K/BB

and here is the kicker:

PA/HR (same seasons with age in parenthesis) :

Belle (21): 15
Sano (20): 15.1
Killebrew (20): 22
Cabrerra (20): 28.3
Schmidt (21): 33.5

Oh, and one more guy:

Bo Jackson. Age 23 (AA): 38.2% K%, 3.68 K/BB, 30.3 PA/HR

Sano is THAT good folks... And his ceiling is above all the aforementioned.

USAFChief · February 20, 2015

I am very excited about Sano and really hope he can stick at 3B. Here are my best case/worst case for his career. This assumes he stays healthy throughout his career which is never a given.

Best case - Mike Schmidt (granted a much weaker fielding one) - This means he sticks at 3B. Hits .265-.270. Averages about 35 HR a year. .380 OBP and an OPS around .900. Averages 80-90 BB a year. I think his K numbers will be more the first half of Mike’s career, 23-27%, versus the last half where he brought his career average down to 19%. Averages an o WAR of 5 per season.

Worst case – Adam Dunn. He plays OF or DH. Dunn’s career average was .237 but was more in the .250 range until the last few years. .364 OBP, .854 OPS. Averages 33 HR a year. 80-90 BB a year. K’s 28% of the time. Averages about 2.8 o WAR per year.

Do you really believe the "worst case" career for Sano is over 8000 MLB PAs at an .850 OPS?

I would think the worst case is "finishes professional career without a MLB appearance."

That's not likely, but that's worst case.

DocBauer · February 20, 2015

Sano is young. He's athletically gifted, not just powerful. He is a former SS. He has a cannon for an arm. He wears his size and weight well. He's improved defensively not only season to season, but half season to half season. Granted, there might still be some growing pains at the milb AND ML level, but why are so many so quick and almost eager to move him off 3B before he even plays a single inning at the ML level?

Is there some perception that he simply can't play the position that I've never heard of or read? Is there some perception that he will suddenly rise to ML stardom faster by being moved to and playing an unfamiliar positon such as 1B or OF? Even if that were true, would you really sacrifice an amazing talent at the 3B spot for 6 more months of ML time playing a so-so OF?

tobi0040 · February 20, 2015

I don't see Miguel's ceiling as being above Miguel cabrera's. You are talking about a career 320 hitter. I just don't see that kind of BA to go along with the power and walks. I know someone will say that BA is outdated, but I don't see if Miguel is a 270 hitter how the other metrics like ops will match cabrera's.

tobi0040 · February 20, 2015

Chief,

I had the caveat that I am assuming health and longevity. If Sano has that I think he hits enough for at least one of the 15 DH positions, 30 1b positions, etc. I really do. I think he clubs 30 plus hr a year and racks up some walks. So even if he hits 250 he has a job and can rack up an ops of 850.

Thrylos · February 20, 2015

I don't see Miguel's ceiling as being above Miguel cabrera's. You are talking about a career 320 hitter. I just don't see that kind of BA to go along with the power and walks. I know someone will say that BA is outdated, but I don't see if Miguel is a 270 hitter how the other metrics like ops will match cabrera's.

Age 20 (because that is the last Sano season) seasons OPS accumulative:

Sano: .990

Cabrera: .906

Now, please, tomorrow, or whenever they are going to post Buxton as the Twins' number one prospect, make the same argument about Buxton's OPS vs Sano's.

Thank you.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Thrylos

tobi0040 · February 20, 2015

Let me start by saying their is a lot of room between not as good as cabrera and a really good baseball player.

But best case was Sano debuting last year at 21 without surgery. Cabrera came up at 20. Had a 793 ops and followed up that with an 879 at age 21. The guy won a triple crown and is 15th all time in ops. He is an all time great.

Personally I just don't think Sano will ever have the batting average that will allow him to exceed a career 960 ops. But I still think he is going to be really, really good

Edited February 20, 2015 by tobi0040

tobi0040 · February 20, 2015

Age 20 (because that is the last Sano season) seasons OPS accumulative:
Sano: .990
Cabrera: .906

Now, please, tomorrow, or whenever they are going to post Buxton as the Twins' number one prospect, make the same argument about Buxton's OPS vs Sano's.

Thank you.

I don't think you can compare buxton and sano on ops. Scouts think buxton can win 2 or 3 games with defense per year and swipe 50 or more bases (and a solid lock on his position). So he has some things going for him to close the ops gap. Edited February 20, 2015 by tobi0040

nytwinsfan · February 20, 2015

I don't think you can compare buxton and sano on ops. Scouts think buxton can win 2 or 3 games with defense per year and swipe 50 or more bases (and a solid lock on his position). So he has some things going for him to close the ops gap.

Absolutely. Sano's OPS has a higher upside, no question, but Buxton's overall value has a higher upside.

Seth Stohs · February 20, 2015

TJ surgery has changed over the years and players are coming back a lot faster than before.
[wish I had some player references for that right now, but I don't]
With a few weeks of stretching out his arm in sunny, warm FLA and a month or 2 of AA playing time, I think there is at least a possibility of Sano being ready for MLB around the All-Star break.
At 260lbs, his weight does bother me some. MiLB and baseball-reference both have him at 235lbs. But who knows when was the last time he was weighted?

Ironically, there are three examples listed in the article, and a link to almost all of the Tommy John surgeries in history with date of surgery and date of return.

His weight has been listed on this site and in the Prospect Handbook and other places several times in the last year, including in the article.

Seth Stohs · February 20, 2015

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

I'd move him up to AAA... If he were hitting .270/.360/.570, I'd probably call him straight up to the Twins.

DJL44 · February 20, 2015

The Twins Director of Player Personnel was on MLB network (radio)today and stated that any of the guys on the 40 man roster should be playing for a spot on the 25 man roster. He also said that if they show they can play then the Twins will bring them up. [We need people who can contribute] All these young pups are auditioning for 2015 basically. And it could be ASAP. Based on Spring Training

I'm so tired of Spring Training auditions. Spring Training is a terrible time to judge ballplayers. Hicks has flopped twice out of the gate but "won" the job in Spring Training.

dxpavelka · February 20, 2015

Agreed, outfield is not crowded, but on the other hand, the lack of quality defensive OFs is all the more reason Sano should not be playing there.

We currently have a solid but not spectacular 3B. You could move him to OF or you could move Sano. We are thinking of Sano as a 3B because that is what we have been told that he is. My guess is that his best position will be AB. Just because one of the two guys may end up switching positions doesn't mean it HAS to be one or the other. Whichever move is best for the overall makeup of the team is the one that should be made. We are a long way from having any kind of clue what that move is.

nytwinsfan · February 20, 2015

We currently have a solid but not spectacular 3B. You could move him to OF or you could move Sano. We are thinking of Sano as a 3B because that is what we have been told that he is. My guess is that his best position will be AB. Just because one of the two guys may end up switching positions doesn't mean it HAS to be one or the other. Whichever move is best for the overall makeup of the team is the one that should be made. We are a long way from having any kind of clue what that move is.

I'm not sure what you're saying, but my point is that Sano has a better chance of being a 3rd baseman with decent defense than he does being an outfielder with decent defense. All the evidence (including his 250 pounds which will make him slow in the outfield, strong arm, and quick hands) points to that. And we don't want Sano playing 1st or DH and taking at bats away from Vargas and Mauer (I personally might be ok with him taking ABs away from Mauer, but it isn't going to happen). So those are our options. By all means, let's wait awhile and make sure Sano is back on track from his injury, but assuming that once he shakes off any rust he continues to rake, then the choice is an easy one. Trade Plouffe, whose bat probably won't play in a corner outfield position other than as a platoon against lefties.

Ncgo4 · March 2, 2015

I don't necessarily buy into the Buxton is a higher prospect than Sano. A 35 HR guy with 110 plus RBI's and potentially very good 3rd base play is not easily replaced as the MVP on a team, any team. Buxton hitting .325 and 40-50 steals and scoring 100 runs is very good but does it rate him above my fantasy Sano? Now if Buxton can get up to consistently hitting 20 dingers then we've got a fight on our hands.

In any case I'm excited as heck by both. Plus they seem to have very different personalities. Miguel Hunter and Byron Mauer.

Minniman · March 2, 2015

Having given up on Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy at much older ages than these guys makes me think we should let this ride.
200 games.

The Twins, with Gardenhire, wanted all of their players to hit the same way. That did not work out so well for Gomez or Hardy, and it did not work for David Ortiz either.

When the Twins had Mount Crushmore, all of the hitters hit differently. Hrbek, Puckett, Brunansky, and Gaetti were all a change of pace at the plate. None of them were afraid to take a big swing with two strikes and players on base. Dan Gladden and Chili Davis hit differently too. Some of these players were pull hitters, some hit the other way, some protected the plate, and others let it rip.

This is how Dan Gladden sees it, and I agree:

Gladden (Strib): “You know what, here’s one thing I hope can kind of get rooted or maybe even changed to an extent, and that is the philosophy of the Twins. … You’ve heard it: ‘You’ve got to hit the ball the other way.’ It’s almost like everybody who puts a Twins uniform on, they’re taught to go the other way. … A guy like Arcia right here, what are we hearing? ‘He’s trying to pull the ball. He’s trying to pull the ball. We need to have him go the other way.’ Arcia to me is a dead-red pull guy, so let’s teach him to pull the ball rather than try to teach him to go the other way and hit doubles and singles — which he can do, but that’s not his game. … We had Jim Thome here, kind of a one-dimensional, one-field type guy. David Ortiz, when we heard after he left, they told him to pull the ball and that’s what he’s done. I think the philosophy — you need to be able to evaluate the player. Vargas is a guy that should have opposite-field power.”

http://blog.startribune.com/sports/randball/interesting-critique-of-the-twins-way-by-dan-gladden-on-tuesday-radio-broadcast

tobi0040 · March 2, 2015

I don't necessarily buy into the Buxton is a higher prospect than Sano. A 35 HR guy with 110 plus RBI's and potentially very good 3rd base play is not easily replaced as the MVP on a team, any team. Buxton hitting .325 and 40-50 steals and scoring 100 runs is very good but does it rate him above my fantasy Sano? Now if Buxton can get up to consistently hitting 20 dingers then we've got a fight on our hands.

In any case I'm excited as heck by both. Plus they seem to have very different personalities. Miguel Hunter and Byron Mauer.

Are you indicating Sano could be a very good defensive 3B? I have not heard anyone make that prediction. Most indicate he may struggle to stay at 3B because he is too big and does not have the footwork.

Seth Stohs · March 2, 2015

Are you indicating Sano could be a very good defensive 3B? I have not heard anyone make that prediction. Most indicate he may struggle to stay at 3B because he is too big and does not have the footwork.

i think, personally, that he can play the position adequately and maybe even pretty well for a while. At some point, hopefully in his late 20s or early 30s, he probably won't, but worry about that when we/they get there. He's a good athlete.

Ncgo4 · March 6, 2015

All this talk of him as a bad fielder is way premature, every analyst I've read saidhe seems to not have any real problems with good hands or movement. The only question was his attention span on each play. He's a big guy, no question, but he's not fat, just really big and broad. No reason at all that for the next 10 years with a cannon of an arm he couldn't remain a good 3rd baseman.

He seems very driven and I can't imagine that he won't stay in shape. If that proves to be wrong, then we're in fo a disappointment. But until then, worry about his hitting and strike outs. That's the real key to any stardom.

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