White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

They don't really need future luck to have a meaningfully strong rotation -- they've got one at present.  Sale, Quintana, and now Samardzija.

 

I'd argue that even with TR's guidance, the Twins draft-and-develop approach is probably more dependent on "luck" (with less yearly breakout potential) than the White Sox more aggressive approach.

How many starters in a given rotation go down for a lengthy period in a season? Two? Most teams end up using what, 7-8 starters in a season? That's the luck I'm talking about. 

If Detroit loses two starters, they have Buck Farmer and a desperate trade to make. The Whities, I'll grant, have a little more depth. But I'll take our current veteran rotation plus May, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Hu, Wheeler, and Rogers et al on a five-year plan over what the Whities have going at the moment.

The Sox will be improved, but so will the Twins. Hahn is probably taking the right approach for them, all things considered, but that doesn't make me think the Twins are in the midst of a failed strategy or something. I think the Twins, if they execute reasonably well, will have a more sustainable foundation.

I trust the Ivy League and Northwestern Kellogg School of Management guy to understand how to make the new economics of baseball work- and they've proven more than capable of extricating themselves from no longer desirable contracts just over the last year.  I think the new tidal wave of money flowing into baseball isn't fully yet appreciated.

$90M last year + $39M that they have added already would get me to $129M.  That is more than their highest payroll of all time, which was in 2012 of $127M. I don't  ever see them as being a $170-200M payroll team.  So this team plus another $10-15M in payroll does not look like a world series champion to me.  Nor are they investing in young players.

The Twins start with say $70-75M in 2016 (lose Hunter and Pelf).  We have Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Berrios (among others) and could theoretically add another $40-50M......we are going to be OK boys and girls. I would honestly not trade franchises this second if I wanted to build a contender. 

Which position would you guys rather be in over the next five years?

It's only money. Isn't there some middle ground between the Sox and Twins?

Yes - the middle ground rhymes with "The Faint Bluest Dardanelles"

I think the difference between the Sox and Twins means that in order to be competitive any time soon, the White sox had no choice but to make large FA signings and trade whatever prospects they think they can spare.

The Twins have been slowly (re)building the farm and as a result, there's less urgency in the front office to make a big reach now. The Twins will wait for the next crop prospects to arrive and then contend for a few seasons before starting over.

The owner makes money, the fans have something to hope for, almost everyone is happy.

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

 

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

Yeah, but the 87 Twins had the almighty pitching power of Mike Smithson!!!  

Dunn.  And if we're counting Zach Duke's ~$5 mil AAV on one side of the ledger, it seems only fair to include similar yearly salaries they are shedding in the form of Lindstrom, Beckham, De Aza, and Downs, not to mention Bellisario and Konerko close to ~$3 mil each.

On that Cot's site, they didn't have Dunn listed to get to the $90M because he was traded to Oakland.  I only looked at the top 7-8 paid guys and because I am lazy didn't look much below that.  The broader point remains. 

Would anyone trade franchises with them right now?  If not, we probably should not get too worked up.

The White Sox are actually at about $104 million estimated for 2015 right now.

 

Before trading for Samardzija and signing Robertson, B-Ref actually had their projected payrolls lower than those of the Twins for 2015, 2017, and 2018.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

Even with the latest acquisitions, they are still within ~10% of the Twins projected payroll for those seasons, and it is less concentrated than that of the Twins (Mauer).

I think the White Sox extend Jeff S at about $20M a year, starting as early as next year.  That puts them about $115M assuming they fill out their roster with young players.  At this point that may not be an accurate assumption.  If they are over $120M they are near their highest point.

I know I would not trade spots with them right now.  Would anyone else? 

I know I wouldn't trade stadiums with the Sox!

They're probably looking to improve at the spot anyway, but the White Sox starting catcher actually bested ours in 2014 rWAR (and is younger and cheaper with only year-to-year commitments for the next 3 seasons).

 

Similarly, their third baseman's stats actually look not dissimilar to our 3B at the same age (Plouffe two years ago, although I will grant Gillaspie looks less likely to improve defensively).

 

They've got an exciting young free swinging Venezuelan in one of the outfield corners... sound like anyone else we know?  (Admittedly they need their own Torii Hunter for the other corner and/or DH.)

 

And they've already dropped the 3 worst performers from last year's bullpen and replaced them with two guys from the top of last year's K/9 leaderboards.

 

Again, they are far from perfect, and I imagine they are still looking to add a bat or two (or three!).  But they've got a WAY better pitching staff in the immediate future, and roughly equal total future contractual commitments.  The main Twins advantage is indeed "farm system" which is important but feels a lot less dependable than an existing MLB talent advantage.

 

In a hypothetical world where a genie offers a complete organizational trade, you'd have to be tempted, right?  Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton are four of the best in the game right now, and all cheap and controlled for 4-6 seasons.  Seems like the Twins, even with the farm system advantage, would be lucky to be in a similar situation as far as top-end talent and control in the near future.

I mean, compared to a team that lost 90+ games 4 years in a row, sure the White Sox look pretty good.

I was responding more to the tenor of comments saying that Sox were now the favorites to win the division and/or serious playoff contenders this year. I don't think they have done enough yet this offseason, and we haven't seen what the rest of the league will do yet.

But if there's comparisons to be made:

I think Plouffe is better than Gillaspie, both now and when Plouffe was Gillaspie's age. I'd take Plouffe over him. Also, I'd take Sano over Gillaspie for the next decade or two.

I'd take Dozier over the current hole at 2B in Chicago, too.

I think both outfield corners in Chicago are suspect. Viciedo and Avisail Garcia are both trouble. The Twins can't really talk in that department, though, so I won't belabor that point.

Catching... ? Tyler Flowers and Nieto? I'd honestly rather have Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. If Molitor would let Pinto have more playing time in 2015 than Gardy was giving him, I like what the Twins have even more.

The Sox have a better rotation, no argument from me there. The bullpens I think will depend on what the Twins do in the offseason and how fast the 2013 and 2014 draft class moves up. 

First of all -- the five-year plan seems an odd way to put this.  Sale and Quintana were top 10 pitchers in MLB fWAR last year, and they're both young and signed cheaply for the next 5-6 seasons.  Depth is nice, but I'm not sure compiling a list of mostly B-/C+ prospects from the low minors really closes that huge gap.

 

Not to mention that there isn't anything precluding the White Sox from adding to that plan over the next five years, just like they did yesterday (adding #15 pitcher in 2014 MLB fWAR).

I get why Hahn is doing what he's doing. I said earlier that it makes sense to skin the cat the way he's doing it given their situation. But I need to correct your statement: May, Meyer, and Berrios are B+ prospects, not part of a compilation of "B-/C+ prospects from the low minors", and the others mentioned are all better than what that suggests, really. But talking about individual prospects misses the point about the  advantages of having high-level talent at all levels. If you accept the benefits of this, talking about a five-year horizon doesn't sound odd, spycake. The Shark trade illustrates this well, as the Sox further decimated a weak system for a #2-3 starter who will cost a fortune in a year. Another example: Detroit just gave up two of their ten best prospects for a #4-5 starter. Purging those same like-quality prospects from the Twins system would barely impact  their future.

Again, I'm not criticizing Hahn's approach and acknowledge he could add to the $104M payroll as a means of sustaining things in the absence of an incredible prospect pipeline like the Cubs and Twins have (although he now has fewer prospect chips, right?). But I am defending the Twin's approach and will go a step further to say it's a more sustainable strategy, even without considering the economic side of it all beyond player value.

Just scanning their yearly rosters at B-Ref, I don't see many boneheaded moves.  The Nick Swisher fiasco in 2008 was obviously the big one, losing Gio Gonzalez in the process.  Carlos Quention was a loss in 2012, although his subsequent salaries and health greatly reduce the level of boneheadedness.  I've seen the Peavy trade cited a few times in this thread, but it didn't really hurt them (actually netted them Avisail Garcia in the end).  Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson?

 

Signing Dunn wasn't a good move, but it was only cash and not a crippling amount (Nolasco money).

 

This is a team that hasn't bottomed out much or for very long since I became a baseball fan (1990).

I mean, compared to a team that lost 90+ games 4 years in a row, sure the White Sox look pretty good.

 

I was responding more to the tenor of comments saying that Sox were now the favorites to win the division and/or serious playoff contenders this year. I don't think they have done enough yet this offseason, and we haven't seen what the rest of the league will do yet.

 

But if there's comparisons to be made:

I think Plouffe is better than Gillaspie, both now and when Plouffe was Gillaspie's age. I'd take Plouffe over him. Also, I'd take Sano over Gillaspie for the next decade or two.

I'd take Dozier over the current hole at 2B in Chicago, too.

I think both outfield corners in Chicago are suspect. Viciedo and Avisail Garcia are both trouble. The Twins can't really talk in that department, though, so I won't belabor that point.

Catching... ? Tyler Flowers and Nieto? I'd honestly rather have Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. If Molitor would let Pinto have more playing time in 2015 than Gardy was giving him, I like what the Twins have even more.

The Sox have a better rotation, no argument from me there. The bullpens I think will depend on what the Twins do in the offseason and how fast the 2013 and 2014 draft class moves up. 

I think the only time to panic is if their future (2 years to 6-7 years) looks brighter than ours.  I don't think it does.

I think some are feeling left out because action is going on around the league and as usual, we are having no part of it.  But I don't think these are the types of moves we should be worrying about.  They seem to be buying high on guys, adding 30+ year olds, overpaying for average at best bats, spending where they should not be spending (closers, DH), etc.  These are not the types of decisions over time that pay off at a reasonable rate.

The Samardzija deal is actually a 6 player deal.  Sox get Ynoa, who has flopped. 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/24876421/white-sox-acquire-samardzija-ynoa-in-six-player-deal-with-as

The A's think Semien will be there SS next year. 

Manual has Ravelo as #10 for them.

Bassitt has a 3.94 ERA in 30 IP in the big's.

Phegley is a 26 year old catcher that hit well in the minors the last few.  .966 and .861 the last two years.