Week in Review: Bucking Into The Break

The Weekly Nutshell:
The final week of the first half served as a strong statement: The Minnesota Twins have put their horrific month of June firmly in the rearview, and are ready to get serious for the stretch run. After going a full month without winning a series, they've now won three straight, including two against likely playoff teams in the Rays and Cubs. 

The Twins did, however, narrowly miss a sweep over the Pirates that would have put them back squarely at the .500 mark heading into All-Star break. It's tough to complain about a 6-3 home stand, but this team has eroded so much margin for error that the missed opportunities like Sunday's 2-1 loss sting all the more. Minnesota is only a few games back in the wild-card race, but there are three teams standing between them and the final spot. They've got their work cut out for them. 

That said, the Twins are undoubtedly in a much better place than they were couple of weeks ago. Their pitching staff is fully back on track, with reinforcements on the way, and Minnesota's two All-Stars are shining brightly along with a lockdown bullpen. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/7 through Sun, 7/13
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 47-49)
Run Differential Last Week: +10 (Overall: -8)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (11.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 91 | MIN 8, CHC 1: Twins Ride Lights-Out Pitching, Late Power Outburst to Victory

• Jeffers, Castro, Bader: HRs in 8th inning

Game 92 | MIN 4, CHC 2: Early Lead Holds Up Behind Strong Work from Festa, Bullpen

• Twins bullpen: 3.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K

Game 93 | CHC 8, MIN 1: Cubs Rebound with Dominant Effort to Evade Sweep in Finale

• Paddack: 5 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 2 K

Game 94 | MIN 2, PIT 1: Ryan Outduels Skenes, Bullpen Fires Four Scoreless to Seal Win

• Ryan: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Game 95 | MIN 12, PIT 4: Buxton Hits for Cycle, Twins Blast Four Homers in Blowout Victory

• Buxton: 5-5, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI

Game 96 | PIT 2, MIN 1: Keller Shut Downs Lineup as Twins Again Fail to Complete Sweep

• Twins hitters: 1-8 RISP

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NEWS & NOTES

The Twins had a couple of scary close calls on the injury front but were fortunately able to avoid anything serious in both cases. On Wednesday, Byron Buxton got hit on the hand by a 98-MPH fastball from Cade Horton and had to exit the game. X-rays came back negative and he was able to return for a big weekend against the Pirates. On Friday, Carlos Correa rolled his ankle and went down in a heap during a tag attempt at second base. He needed to be helped off the field and didn't play Saturday, but Correa was back in the lineup for Sunday's series finale and looked no worse for the wear. Whew.

Another relief: Our long Joey Wentz nightmare has reached an end. Wentz posted a 15.75 ERA and 3.25 WHIP in eight innings for the Twins spread across six appearances, repeatedly getting shelled in mop-up duty, before being designated for assignment on Wednesday. He was claimed off waivers two days later by the Braves, who are the latest team to take a gamble on Wentz's premium velo from the left side. The Twins replaced him with another marginal major-league lefty reliever in Anthony Misiewicz, who allowed three runs in 3 ⅓ innings across two low-leverage appearances.

An exciting piece of news heading into the break: Zebby Matthews appears ready to return. After throwing live batting practice at Target Field earlier in the week, Matthews went to St. Paul to kick off a rehab assignment on Sunday. He was absolutely dominant, throwing four shutout innings with just one hit allowed and nine strikeouts. Assuming everything checks out physically in the coming days, there's a fair likelihood Matthews will rejoin the Twins rotation on the other side of the break.

HIGHLIGHTS

In the span of one week, Buxton was named to the All-Star team, selected to the Home Run Derby, and hit for the cycle for the first time in Target Field history. He accomplished the feat on Saturday night — his own bobblehead giveaway game. Buxton tallied five hits and sealed the deal with a seventh-inning home run, his 21st of the season. The spectacular effort left Buxton with a .921 OPS, ranking third-best in the American League behind MVP front-runners Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. 

Saturday's impressive win over Pittsburgh saw Willi Castro chip in three hits, including his second homer of the week. He wraps the first half with an excellent .791 OPS. Kody Clemens also launched his second long ball of the week on Saturday — a three-run bomb that staked Minnesota a big early lead. He's working his way into regular duty at first base against right-handers, which is great news for him but less so for Ty France. 

Coming off a weekend of heroics against Tampa, Harrison Bader stayed hot with another home run on Tuesday. He notched four more hits and a stolen base over the course of the week. Those four names we just covered — Buxton, Bader, Castro, Clemens — were Minnesota's four most valuable position players in the first half, and the only ones worth more than one win above replacement, per FanGraphs. It's fitting they all ended on high notes, with Buxton's the highest of all.

On the pitching side, Joe Ryan has been far-and-away the top performer on the staff. He too put an appropriate final touch on his first half, going toe to toe with young phenom Paul Skenes on Friday night and picking up his ninth win with five innings of one-run ball. Earlier in the week, Ryan got some much deserved recognition when he was named to the All-Star team as an injury replacement, joining Buxton. 

Simeon Woods Richardson is going to set up a tough decision for the Twins front office as sidelined starters begin returning to the mix. In two starts last week, SWR allowed just one run over 9 ⅔ innings, lowering his ERA to 1.46 in his past six turns. He isn't missing many bats and has had to dance out of danger at times, but still it's hard to argue with the results. The good, efficient innings are piling up. Wood Richardson is doing everything the Twins are asking of him, and then some. 

Minnesota's back-end relievers also finished the first half in top form: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Danny Coulombe, Brock Stewart and Cole Sands combined to allow one run in 17 innings of work, and it didn't come until the final inning of the week when Durán gave up an infield RBI single that ultimately tagged him with the loss. These guys worked in a lot of close games and they were brilliant. 

Teams will surely come calling on some or all of these names as the trade deadline approaches, and there is arguably some wisdom in listening to those offers, even if not acting as a full-on "seller." At the same time, the Twins' depth of high-caliber late-inning arms is one of the biggest reasons to believe they could surge in the second half, and would make them a very imposing postseason opponent. Minnesota's bullpen leads the major leagues in fWAR at the All-Star break.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins offense is maddeningly inconsistent, which is at least a step up over consistently bad. The lineup had a few nice showings, including an eight-run outburst against Chicago on Tuesday night and the 12-run stomping of Pittsburgh on Saturday. But Minnesota also scored two or fewer runs in three of the six games, and they were very lucky to come away with a win in one of them.

The final game of the first half was a microcosm of this team's shortcomings: Buxton came through with an early game-tying RBI single, and the rest of the offense could do nothing all day. Mitch Keller combined with three relievers to hold Minnesota off the board outside of that swing, wasting another stellar effort from the pitching staff.

Trevor Larnach went 0-for-4 in that game to finish the week 1-for-17. (His one hit was a big one though: a two-run homer off Skenes that was the difference in Friday night's 2-1 victory.) France went 1-for-12 in five games (only three of them starts) and has a sub-.500 OPS in his past 25 games. 

Brooks Lee was 3-for-21 with one double, one RBI and no walks. He's batting .132 in July after an outstanding month of June. The swing decisions just aren't there and he's not a guy who can produce while hacking at slop. If Lee can't get the bat revved up in the second half, it's possible Luke Keaschall could return and start eating into playing time at second base, although clearly Rocco Baldelli has a great deal of confidence in Lee. Maybe too much?

Slumps like the ones we've seen from Larnach, France and Lee are tougher to swallow due to the presence of Christian Vázquez, who is bound to start almost every other day while contributing nothing at the plate. He managed two singles in his 10-bats last week, and hasn't had a multi-hit game since the middle of May. (He's batting .140 with two extra-base hits in 93 plate appearances since then.) On the season, his .493 OPS is fourth-worst out of 302 major-league hitters with 150-plus PAs. 

There's no reason to believe Vázquez will turn around his struggles at this stage, and no reason to expect he'll stop seeing substantial playing time in the second half. This adds urgency for the rest of the lineup to pick up the slack. Minnesota's ability to emerge as a true contender in the stretch run will be contingent on guys like Larnach, Lee, Correa, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner finding their swings and powering up the middle of the Twins lineup. 

It feels like none of those guys are clicking fully, but most have at least shown flashes, and any one of them has the ability to drastically alter the club's offensive outlook if they do. And if multiple players from that group and find the groove while Buxton continues to play at an MVP-caliber level, the Twins would really be in business.

Unfortunately, they don't have a ton of time to wait on these hitters to figure it out. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

In the coming days, eyes will be on Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan at the All-Star Game in Atlanta. If you're into that sort of thing. Following their four-day break in the schedule, the Twins will resume play in Colorado next weekend as they look to make their stand in the second half. 

The roster figures to undergo some change pretty rapidly once the action gets going again. While nothing's official, Matthews will likely be activated from the injured list following his very encouraging rehab outing. That would presumably bump Travis Adams back to Triple-A; he did a solid job taking the ball and throwing strikes in a couple of bulk pitching appearances. If Matthews looks anything like he did on the mound in St. Paul on Sunday, he's going to provide a big boost.

Then things get interesting. Bailey Ober took an anti-inflammatory medication for his ailing hip, and is reportedly feeling better. He has apparently thrown off a mound multiple times so it doesn't appear he went through much of a shutdown. I would guess that the Twins want him to go Triple-A and get in a rehab start or two, putting mechanical adjustments into practice. That is probably not too far off. 

If Ober's ready to return in a couple of weeks and Woods Richardson is still getting the job done, what's the move? Especially knowing that Pablo López should also be back on the scene in a month or so. One potential pivot is that the Twins could increase their openness to flipping Chris Paddack, offloading a few million from the payroll in the process. Paddack hasn't done much to catalyze his trade market lately though — he has an 8.48 ERA in his past six starts and hasn't recorded an out past the fifth inning in any of them.

The bottom line is that the Twins can afford to be somewhat patient and measured in handling the pitching staff reinforcements. I'm not sure the same can be said on the offensive side. These sleepy one-run performances just can't happen anymore or the team's contention hopes will fade. 

Keaschall's progress toward a rehab assignment will be monitored closely. I'm also curious if the Twins might bring Austin Martin back into the fold pretty quickly here. He's looked great since returning to action in St. Paul, slashing .325/.429/.450 in a dozen games. Swapping him in for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. — who has not appeared in the first six innings of a game since June 22nd — seems like a pretty straightforward way to upgrade the talent on the roster. I get that it's nice to have a bench player who you don't mind collecting dust, but at some point the front office has gotta do something to try and jolt this offense. Martin might not do much to lift the ceiling but he can help lift the floor. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins open up the second half with a tour through the worst and best the National League have to offer. The Colorado Rockies are on pace for 125 losses, threatening to overshadow the ineptitude of the 2024 White Sox. Securing a series win or sweep will be critical, because straight afterward the Twins will head to Los Angeles for a road series against a star-studded Dodgers team that's tracking toward 100 wins. The Twins have not yet announced their pitching plans coming out of the break.

TUESDAY, JULY 15: MLB ALL-STAR GAME (ATLANTA)
FRIDAY, JULY 18: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. LHP Kyle Freeland
SATURDAY, JULY 19: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. LHP Antonio Senzatela
SUNDAY, JULY 20: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. RHP German Marquez