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    Updating Narratives Surrounding the 2026 Twins

    The Twins have flirted with .500 to open the season, but the process behind that record reveals which preseason expectations have been accurate and which are already shifting.
    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Image courtesy of ​© Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

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    The Twins opened the 2026 season with the kind of inconsistent play that leaves everyone searching for answers. Hovering around the .500 mark is not inherently disappointing, especially for a team many projected to be fighting for relevance in the American League Central. In some ways, a middling record at this point in the season should be viewed as acceptable.

    The bigger issue is how the Twins have arrived at this point. The team can look dominant for a week, only to give those gains right back over the next two weeks. Over the course of a 162-game season, hot streaks and slumps begin to even out, exposing the strengths and weaknesses that define the roster. The early returns for the Twins suggest that some preseason assumptions are correct, while others warrant reconsideration.

    With that in mind, here's where some of the biggest narratives surrounding the 2026 Twins stand after the opening weeks of the season.

    Starting Pitching
    Preseason Narrative: Before Pablo López’s injury, the Twins looked like they had the makings of a top-10 rotation. Once he went down, expectations shifted, and the group looked more like a middle-of-the-pack unit that would need several young pitchers to step forward.

    Early Season Results: Twins starters rank seventh in fWAR, 11th in xERA, eighth in FIP, and 15th in WPA.

    That is a very encouraging start for a group that entered the year with major uncertainty. Outside of a rough outing on Friday, Taj Bradley has looked like one of the American League’s best starters and has given the Twins the type of impact arm they desperately needed. Mick Abel was beginning to build momentum with back-to-back strong starts before landing on the injured list, showing flashes of being a playoff-caliber starter.

    Connor Prielipp’s debut was another reason for optimism. The raw stuff looked every bit as electric as advertised, and he showed signs of developing into a frontline starter if the Twins continue stretching out his workload. Even Joe Ryan has room for improvement. He has not yet pitched at the All-Star level fans have seen from him before, which leaves open the possibility that the rotation could be even better in the coming months.

    Current Narrative: The Twins have enough young talent and enough upside in this rotation to believe it can remain a strength for the rest of the season.

    Lineup
    Preseason Narrative: With Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall expected to anchor the offense, the Twins needed a handful of post-hype prospects to finally break through and provide stability throughout the lineup.

    Early Season Results: The Twins' hitters rank 18th in WPA, 20th in fWAR, and 11th in wRC+.

    Those numbers paint the picture of a lineup that has been productive enough in spurts but not nearly consistent enough to carry the team. Austin Martin has been one of the best stories on the roster. After ending 2025 on a high note, he has carried that momentum into this season and has emerged as one of the Twins’ most valuable hitters. In fact, he leads the team in WAR, giving the lineup a boost few expected entering the year.

    Trevor Larnach has also made the most of limited opportunities. Even with the Twins facing a heavy dose of left-handed pitching, he's tied with Buxton and Ryan Jeffers for second on the team in WAR, giving the club meaningful production whenever he is in the lineup.

    The issue is that the rest of the supporting cast has not shown up. Matt Wallner, James Outman, Keaschall, and Kody Clemens have all produced negative WAR so far. That's unsustainable, for a team with little offensive margin for error. The Twins do not have the star power to absorb multiple dead spots in the lineup. If several lineup spots continue to provide little to no value, the offense will eventually crater.

    Current Narrative: Martin has emerged, but the Twins still need several post-hype bats to start producing, or the offense will drag this team out of the race.

    Bullpen
    Preseason Narrative: The expectation entering the season was simple: this bullpen was going to struggle, and it had the potential to be one of the worst units in the league.

    Early Season Results: The Twins' bullpen ranks 18th in fWAR, 23rd in WPA, 24th in xERA, and 14th in FIP.

    Those numbers suggest the bullpen has not been a complete disaster, but it remains one of the weakest links on the roster. The most concerning part has been the way the group is being deployed.

    Justin Topa leads the American League with 15 appearances, making him the most frequently used reliever on the staff. That level of reliance would be understandable if he were a dominant late-inning option, but that has not been the case. Anthony Banda is tied for second on the team with 12 appearances and owns an ERA north of 9.00, yet he continues to receive meaningful innings.

    Meanwhile, Cole Sands is tied with Eric Orze and Taylor Rogers with 10 appearances despite clearly being the Twins’ best relief arm. Rather than using Sands aggressively in high-leverage situations, the Twins have often held him back, waiting for ideal moments that never develop. For a bullpen with limited dependable options, that strategy makes little sense. The Twins need to be maximizing their best arms, and right now, they are not.

    Current Narrative: The bullpen remains a major weakness and may ultimately be the factor that keeps the Twins from contending.

    The early season has not completely changed expectations for the Twins, but it has sharpened the focus on where this team stands. The rotation has looked better than many expected, giving the organization reason to believe it can build around its young arms. The lineup has shown flashes, but too many hitters are underperforming to trust the group as currently constructed. The bullpen, meanwhile, looks every bit like the liability many feared in spring training.

    That combination explains why the Twins have flirted with a .500 record, but also why they're currently trending away from it, in the wrong direction. There are enough strengths here to remain competitive in the short term, but the weaknesses are obvious and persistent. If the lineup doesn't improve and the bullpen continues to cost the team winnable games, the Twins will slide out of the race, regardless of how well the rotation performs.

    For now, the preseason narratives are evolving, but not disappearing. The rotation is giving the Twins hope. The lineup is running out of excuses. And the bullpen remains the biggest threat to whatever chance this team has of staying in contention.

    How do you view the team’s current narratives? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    Linus

    Linus 9,184

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Ironically the bullpen might be easiest to fix. The hitting and fielding problems can only be fixed by inserting new players in the lineup. We all thought that would be the up and comers in St Paul but none of them are hitting enough to be an improvement offensively. Several would provide immediate defensive help but they won’t get the chance if they can’t hit. With the bullpen you could insert Rojas, Festa when he comes back, and some combination of SWR / Preilipp / Mathews. That would be a marked improvement over the current pen. Of course that assumes the Twins are still in it and trying to win. 

    Greglw3

    Greglw3 975

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Just how bad do you want the defense to be? I think that would be worse than Bell.

    E Rodriguez defense in LF over Larnach is a big improvement and Austin Martin in RF over Wallner in RF is a big improvement plus Gray over Lewis at 3rd would represent some def. improvement and Culpepper would likely be an improvement def. over Keaschall at 2B.

    Plus the offense would improve markedly with Martin full time over Wallners .180 avg and avalanche of strikeouts, and E-Rod instead of Clemens would be an offensive advantage.

    So is all that defensive and offensive benefit outweighed by what Larnach may offer defensively at 1B?

     

     

     

     

    lF

    1 hour ago, ashbury said:

    It's easy.

    • Bell: his best position is probably DH. Install him there.
    • Wallner: he profiles more as a DH going forward.
    • Larnach: I guess you could DH him.

    Oh wait. I think I'm beginning to see the problem.

     

    RpR

    RpR 3,685

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, ashbury said:

    It's easy.

    • Bell: his best position is probably DH. Install him there.
    • Wallner: he profiles more as a DH going forward.
    • Larnach: I guess you could DH him.

    Oh wait. I think I'm beginning to see the problem.

    How does Wallner striking out as Designated Hitter help?

    karcherd

    karcherd 1,690

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The solution will not come from Gray, Arcia or Kreidler, they are only band-aids.  Gray is not a defensive upgrade over Lewis.  And he will exposed quickly if he plays every day.  He is the Kody Clemens of 2026, he has a few timely hits and everyone thinks he will do that on a daily basis.  Lewis needs to play this year, if he can't improve than they need to make a decision before next season on whether to move on or not.  Keaschall has 68 games at 2B in the major leagues, give him time to see if he can improve his defense.  Other players have improved after coming up, not everyone is a finished product especially with the Twins philosophy of anyone can play anywhere.  This is not helping the players develop in the minors be ready when they come up.

    I am frustrated with the hitting and the defense but unless you have clear upgrades for the infield and not AAAA types, you need to ride with Lewis, Lee and Keaschall.

    RpR

    RpR 3,685

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, karcherd said:

    The solution will not come from Gray, Arcia or Kreidler, they are only band-aids.  Gray is not a defensive upgrade over Lewis.  And he will exposed quickly if he plays every day.  He is the Kody Clemens of 2026, he has a few timely hits and everyone thinks he will do that on a daily basis.  Lewis needs to play this year, if he can't improve than they need to make a decision before next season on whether to move on or not.  Keaschall has 68 games at 2B in the major leagues, give him time to see if he can improve his defense.  Other players have improved after coming up, not everyone is a finished product especially with the Twins philosophy of anyone can play anywhere.  This is not helping the players develop in the minors be ready when they come up.

    I am frustrated with the hitting and the defense but unless you have clear upgrades for the infield and not AAAA types, you need to ride with Lewis, Lee and Keaschall.

    Rather than putting in band-aids that can make things better to continue to use players that are just plain lousy is stupid.

    If you wish to watch a clown show, you idea will work.

    karcherd

    karcherd 1,690

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    26 minutes ago, RpR said:

    Rather than putting in band-aids that can make things better to continue to use players that are just plain lousy is stupid.

    If you wish to watch a clown show, you idea will work.

    I am not interested in 10 or 15 games maybe being a little better.  I want them to get better this year and going forward.  Playing Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall will provide information if they can be part of the team going forward.  And if not they can hopefully make better roster decisions for next year for replacement players.  It is way too early to give up on these three players completely.

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,592

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    18 minutes ago, RpR said:

    Rather than putting in band-aids that can make things better to continue to use players that are just plain lousy is stupid.

    If you wish to watch a clown show, you idea will work.

    Have you noticed that we’re on pace to miss the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 years? In an era of baseball where literally being slightly above .500 punches your ticket to the big dance. 

    We have been relying on these 1 year band aids that don’t do anything but keep an organization in purgatory. You may not like it but we have to get worse in order to get better by playing younger players. We’re stuck in sports purgatory otherwise winning 75-80 games not accomplishing anything. 

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,592

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, karcherd said:

    I am not interested in 10 or 15 games maybe being a little better.  I want them to get better this year and going forward.  Playing Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall will provide information if they can be part of the team going forward.  And if not they can hopefully better roster decisions for next year for replacement players.  It is way too early to give up on these three players completely.

    Some people can’t be reasoned with. RpR would have benched rookie Tony Oliva for 29 year old Jim Snyder in 1962. 

    soyouresayingtheresachance

    soyouresayingtheresachance 136

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    The AAA guys are mostly struggling in AAA. Roden looked ready before he injured his shoulder. Rodriguez is hitting for power and drawing walks but batting .239 while striking out 1/3 of the time. Everyone else is a mediocre AAA batter.

    I agree, they aren't performing as you'd like, but the manager that watched them succeed last season is waiting at Target Field to (hopefully) unlock that potential we've seen. 

    RpR

    RpR 3,685

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    36 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Have you noticed that we’re on pace to miss the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 years? In an era of baseball where literally being slightly above .500 punches your ticket to the big dance. 

    We have been relying on these 1 year band aids that don’t do anything but keep an organization in purgatory. You may not like it but we have to get worse in order to get better by playing younger players. We’re stuck in sports purgatory otherwise winning 75-80 games not accomplishing anything. 

    I would rather watch veterans trying their best than watch a losing rookie clown show.

    RpR

    RpR 3,685

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 hours ago, karcherd said:

    I am not interested in 10 or 15 games maybe being a little better.  I want them to get better this year and going forward.  Playing Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall will provide information if they can be part of the team going forward.  And if not they can hopefully make better roster decisions for next year for replacement players.  It is way too early to give up on these three players completely.

    Sacrifice the season to see if the three are not the Three Stooges, would be an obtuse move.

    RpR

    RpR 3,685

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Some people can’t be reasoned with. RpR would have benched rookie Tony Oliva for 29 year old Jim Snyder in 1962. 

    I met, and shook the hand of Lenny Green is the Fall of 1961.

    I was in awe, but as a nine year old that  is normal, while at the  same time one on the air gent said of the Twins:  They have Green outfielder in Center, a Lemon in Left Field and a Battey Catcher.  they did pretty good.

    If you do not like what  I post, do not read it.



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