Twins Beginning to Accumulate Value from the José Berríos Trade

The 2021 season was disappointing for Twins fans. Minnesota was coming off back-to-back AL Central titles, with hopes that veteran pieces could keep the team’s winning window open. However, the team had a disastrous April (9-15 record) and never fully recovered, with August being the team’s lone month with an over-.500 record. The team’s front office approached the trade deadline, focusing on trading away veterans while acquiring prospects who were close to making their debuts. Joe Ryan’s acquisition from the Rays for two months of Nelson Cruz might be one of the best trades in team history. However, the Twins are just finding out what value the club received in the José Berríos trade.

Toronto’s Trade Value
Minnesota was willing to trade away Berríos because the two sides weren’t going to agree on a long-term deal. He and his agency wanted to be paid like other top-tier starting pitchers, which is understandable, especially in an age of increased pitcher injuries. Berríos has been a workhorse, not missing significant time in any season during his career. He was under team control through the 2022 season, so the Twins were trading away 44 or 45 Berríos starts.

He was one of baseball’s best starting pitchers after the trade deadline that season, as he accumulated 1.5 rWAR, which nearly matched his season total with the Twins prior to the trade. Based on that performance, the Blue Jays inked him to a long-term extension that winter for seven years and $131 million. Luckily, he signed his deal then, because his 2022 campaign was his worst as a professional. He led the league in hits and earned runs allowed, while posting a 74 ERA+. Baseball-Reference pegged him for a -0.6 WAR, his lowest total since his debut season at age 22. He bounced back nicely in 2023-24 to be among the league’s best pitchers, but those seasons weren’t what the Twins traded away; they are tied to his extension. Instead, Toronto traded two top prospects for 14 months of mixed performance from Berríos. 
Toronto’s Trade Value Gained: 0.9 rWAR

Minnesota’s Trade Value
The Twins are starting to see their value accumulate from the prospects acquired from the Blue Jays. At the time, MLB.com ranked Austin Martin (No. 2) and Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 4) as two of the best prospects in Toronto’s farm system. Martin was seen as the top prospect in the package, since he was the fifth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft after dominating the collegiate ranks. Woods Richardson had been part of two blockbuster trades before turning 21 years old, and many expected him to, at minimum, develop into a mid-rotation starter at the time of the trade. Both players were at Double-A during the 2021 campaign, so it was easy to forecast them making their big-league debuts by 2022. However, the timelines shifted after joining the Twins. 

Woods Richardson made his big-league debut in 2022 with one late-season start in Detroit. He allowed two earned runs in five innings with three strikeouts and two walks. Last season, he made one long relief appearance in April, where he surrendered five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. His spot start earlier this season was the best of his career. He fanned five batters in six frames and allowed one earned run on two hits. It was an encouraging sign after some mixed results in his minor-league career. Now, he needs to put together more strong performances with the Saints so he’s ready the next time the Twins have a rotational need. 

Like Woods Richardson, Martin took time to develop in the Twins system, with some low points in his journey. Entering the 2024 season, it became clear that the team needed to focus on the specific skills he could bring to the roster. Multiple injuries this season have opened playing time, so he’s getting his first run at the big-league level. He hasn't exploded onto the scene; he's hitting just .242/.306/.333. He's shown the ability to split the game and make plays with his legs, though, too, and his contact skills are the envy of the rest of the roster.

Defensively, he has seen the majority of his playing time in the outfield (left and center field), with a brief appearance at second base. In left, he looks like an above-average defender. His defensive flexibility is his likely calling card for a long-term utility role with the club.
Minnesota’s Trade Value Gained: TBD

Martin and Woods Richardson may have lost their prospect shine, but there is certainly room for them to provide the team with value over the next six seasons. Berríos provided minimal value to the Blue Jays before his extension kicked in, so the Twins might still end up being the winners of this blockbuster trade. 

How do you feel about the trade at this point? Will the Twins end up with more value? Leave a comment and start the discussion.