Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    Trevor Larnach is on the Clock


    Cody Pirkl

    Trevor Larnach has an above-average slash line in 2023 but hasn’t been the hitter we expected. As he’s carried by walks and showing very little power, could we see it cost him his roster spot soon?

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Trevor Larnach was drafted in the first round of 2018 and was praised for his advanced knowledge of the strike zone and impressive power. As he approaches a full season’s worth of plate appearances at the big-league level, he’s been a perplexing hitter, and with so many other options, the Twins could be on the verge of giving someone else an opportunity.

    Larnach’s big league-level timeline is clouded by two injuries that weighed down his production and ultimately cost him his seasons in 2021 and 2022. Still, he’s accumulated a near-league-average slash line according to his 98 wRC+ across nearly 600 plate appearances. The main takeaways we can draw from Larnach so far in his big league career is that he’s prone to strikeouts but also excels at walking and getting on base. Add in his body type and he has all of the makings of a power-hitting corner outfielder… except the power, that is.

    Larnach has just a .373 slugging percentage through this point in his career. He’s on about a 15-home run pace as a whole. His .145 Isolated slugging is equivalent to Cedric Mullins in 2022. The slash line may technically be above league average for 2023, but at this point, it’s coming almost exclusively from walks.

    Larnach’s approach at the plate is intended to make pitchers work and force them into throwing pitches he can drive. He’s done a great job of getting himself into those situations, but executing when he gets there is a problem. He lacks the ability to cause chaos on the base paths when walked, and the bat-to-ball skills and strikeout rate are too poor to not capitalize on damage-worthy pitches when he sees them. He’s a very smart and polished hitter in regard to his approach, but not finishing the job when he gets pitches to hit is arguably outweighing his on-base ability

    Alex Kirilloff lurks in Triple-A St. Paul. Larnach was discussed as a potential send-down as his rehab stint neared a close, but the Twins ultimately decided to keep Kirilloff in the minors to continue working back from his wrist surgery. At the time many argued that Larnach didn’t have much to prove at the minor league level given his ability to hold his own in the MLB. This can still be argued. If the former 1st round pick with a 65 raw power grade continues to show such little thump, the Twins are likely to explore other options. It may be a need for a swing change or a mental reset to start trying to drive the ball again. Either way, it’s possible that the Twins soon decide Trevor Larnach’s power-hitter approach without the power doesn’t belong in the Major Leagues.

    The Twins have too many left-handed corner options to give a shot to. The aforementioned Kirilloff will likely continue to kick down the door to the MLB. Matt Wallner continues to torch Triple-A, and while his swing-and-miss profile is a more extreme version of Larnach’s, there’s almost no chance of him providing such little power at the plate if he can come up and adjust to Major League pitching.

    Time may be ticking for Trevor Larnach to find his power stroke. His plate approach is polished and he leads the team in RBI, but if he continues to fail in the slugging department, the Twins will begin to wonder whether their wealth of other options can provide more. At some point soon, they may decide to put that theory to the test.

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    36 minutes ago, DFlow said:

    This is a nonsensical article. Larnach is cheap (four years of team control), plays solid defense, and already has a better bat than Kepler. He’s taking solid at bats compared to the rest of the roster. I’d rather keep him long term and would end the Kepler charade once and for all.

    Can guarantee the Twins don't feel the same way and it's not an either or. There are at least two other options in Triple-A they could try if Larnach continues to struggle.

    2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

    I'm definitely in agreement on Larnach>Wallner. I think the likeliest scenario is that when Kirilloff's 10 days are up and Larnach is still doing what he's been doing, the decision simply becomes too easy. I'd hope if he gets sent down he could start driving the ball again, seems like he's just fighting everything off to keep his head above water right now. 

    I think trading for a bat is definitely in the cards closer to the deadline. Too many inconsistent hitters across the lineup and bats usually don't cost too much. 

    Crystal ball time here; if you could pick a player (not Ohtani or someone else higher end with a no trade clause) that COULD be available that you would hope for personally, who would you want the Twins to acquire to help the offense? 

    I'm hoping for someone who has some pop, is a good clubhouse presence, and would hopefully help the defense as well in a corner spot. 

    Anyone come to mind for you?

    I think Gordon has played well enough lately to save his roster spot just before the clock struck midnight on his career.  Good for him.   I’ve changed my mind from jettisoning Gordon all together to sending down Larnach for Kirillof.

    An injury will present itself soon enough to get Larnach back up if he performs.  

    Glad to see a clarification of "on the clock" doesn't mean give up on.

    I've watched a good number of games so far. Larnach is getting fed a steady diet of breaking balls and offspeed stuff. He's actually showing adaptability due to his BB and OB%. Even with his struggles, he still leads the team in RBI...or did before today I believe...which indicates a few key hits, and even some sacrifice flies, which shouldn't be dismissed when looking at the Sox game Wednesday when the hitters in front of him couldn't get the ball out of the infield with the bases loaded!

    The issue is, and I agree with Cody, when he is working the count, there have been a few FB, along with some middle of the plate offspeed stuff, where he is more than capable of punishing the ball, but is missing. I don't think he has anything to prove at AAA. I'm not so sure that just continuing to get ML plate appearances and working with Popkins isn't the best route. BUT, maybe he's pressing? And THAT is why I'm willing to think he might be better off with a stint at St Paul if he doesn't heat up the next few weeks. He wouldn't face the same kind of "stuff" at that level, but he might just RELAX and start to drive the ball with all the natural power he has. 

    I wouldn't send him down tomorrow. I think I'd still give him a little more time. You often don't learn until you also fail some. But sometimes a mental re-set with less pressure can be a good thing. And it's just crazy that the Twins have a former top prospect like AK sitting at AAA just waiting for a chance now that he might FINALLY be healthy, as well as a bat like Wallner just sitting there also. 

    Wallner split his time in 2022 between AA and AAA, about 60/40, and raked at both levels before flashing a little at the ML level. He was the Twins milb hitter of the year, deservedly so in 2022, but is sitting as the 6th or 7th OF option at this point, despite having a great start to 2023. When have we ever been able to say we have a talent like that playing the waiting game? 

    I wouldn't demote Larnach just yet, IMO, because things could "click" suddenly as they did for Miranda last year. Remember when he was sent down for 24-48hrs and brought back due to I jury and he suddenly started hitting? (Boy, I sure wish he would start doing that again)! With young, talented players you sometimes have to live with growing pains. And if you don't, you often sacrifice the future for an immediate present. But the Twins are blessed with talented options just waiting for opportunity. But yeah, if he doesn't figure it out soon, I'd be in favor of a re-set and get AK or Wallner up for opportunity. They TOO deserve said opportunity. 

    He’s a guy who needs to be sent down and then shopped at the trade deadline.  
     

    He had all this trade value going into the season and think they could have got something for him.  
     

    He reminds me of a guess hitter like Jason Kubel but when he guesses right he doesn’t hit bombs!  
     

    I hate guys with “power potential” based on body type but never show it before getting the big league call.  Then we are so surprised when they don’t hit for power in the majors.  
     

    Realistically you have a week or two to figure this out before both Kirilloff and Wallner kick down the door

    When Gallo was signed, the assumption, I think, was that AK would play 1B and Gallo would man a corner OF spot.  I thought Larnach was headed to AAA to rebound from a mostly lost season due to injury.  If Kiriloff is ready, and Larnach looks like he could use a "reset" I honestly don't know what they're waiting for.

    I saw a put Gallo in LF note above, but has anyone looked at Gallo's numbers lately? He is down to 206 and seems in free fall.  His concentrated power output gives everyone a rosy picture of his potential, but he is still the same old Gallo.  Larnach is a mess, I am so disappointed.  His plate approach looks terrible - wishing to walk is not a good approach.  But add them to Correa's slow start, Miranda's lack of production, Vasquez coming down to earth, Taylor just being who he is; Castri 189 and Gordon 161 means the lineup just stinks everywhere we have to hope for warm weather and hot bats.  But saying that Farmer coming back will be a plus is funny when he is batting 226.  The team is batting 228.  So which problem do we address first?  

    18 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    Crystal ball time here; if you could pick a player (not Ohtani or someone else higher end with a no trade clause) that COULD be available that you would hope for personally, who would you want the Twins to acquire to help the offense? 

    I'm hoping for someone who has some pop, is a good clubhouse presence, and would hopefully help the defense as well in a corner spot. 

    Anyone come to mind for you?

    I've been a longstanding Christian Walker fan with the DBacks. He really impacts the ball and plays gold glove caliber 1B which can push Gallo to the outfield. Of course this would require a few things to happen, including Arizona to not be contenders and Kirilloff not working out or Buxton moving back to the OF. 

    2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

    I've been a longstanding Christian Walker fan with the DBacks. He really impacts the ball and plays gold glove caliber 1B which can push Gallo to the outfield. Of course this would require a few things to happen, including Arizona to not be contenders and Kirilloff not working out or Buxton moving back to the OF. 

    This is probably a dumb idea, but why not try for someone like Eloy Jiminez? He is signed through 2024 with a few club options attached. He is mostly a dh at this point, but he is a good right handed hitter when healthy. Chicago certainly will be looking to sell before the July deadline, and maybe they wouldn't be looking to help the Twins out. Just a thought.

    18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    This is probably a dumb idea, but why not try for someone like Eloy Jiminez? He is signed through 2024 with a few club options attached. He is mostly a dh at this point, but he is a good right handed hitter when healthy. Chicago certainly will be looking to sell before the July deadline, and maybe they wouldn't be looking to help the Twins out. Just a thought.

    In a vacuum it's a good fit depending on whether they plan to have Buxton ever move back to the outfield because like you said, probably don't want Eloy in the field. The wild card of that one is that since he isn't a rental it may take more than just low level prospects and those types of trades always get tricky in division. I'm sure the Twins don't want to aid the White Sox too much in their rebuild.

    On 5/4/2023 at 12:29 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

    The point those two are at in their careers are very different though and Larnach's lack of power spans his entire career to this point and there are options to replace him. I just fear the Twins don't give him much more leash.

    Uhhhh…wow Cody. When you’re right, you’re right. Got any thoughts on the stock market?




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...