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    Trading for a Young Starter: Sandy Alcantara


    Patrick Wozniak

    With numerous starting rotation holes to fill and plenty of other teams eager to sign free agents, the Twins seem destined to at least test the waters of the trade market. While pitchers who are nearing free agency seem most likely to be dangled by noncompetitive teams, it might be prudent to make a move for a younger, high-upside starter with numerous years of team control left.

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    Of course, most every team wants young, cheap, and talented pitching so obtaining such a starter is easier said than done. And while not expensive in actual dollars, a young, team-controlled starter would likely be costly in prospect capital. Fortunitely, Minnesota happens to be rich in prospects and there may be opportunities to “buy” a young starter without necessarily giving up an elite prospect.

    The natural place to look for the coveted young starter would be in an organization that is unlikely to be competitive in the near future. Look no further than the Miami Marlins and Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins displayed a willingness to trade away talented young pitching at last season’s trade deadline when they shipped rookie pitcher Zac Gallen to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Plus, the Twins have experience in dealing with Miami’s front office with the Sergio Romo deadline trade.

    Gallen was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm, a Double-A shortstop prospect whose stock was dropping due to inconsistency despite being a top-100 prospect. The trade was a headscratcher as Gallen, although unheralded as a prospect, was having a sensational rookie year (which continued with Arizona). This could work to Minnesota’s advantage as Miami seems to favor international bats (as they also received Lewin Diaz from the Twins in the Romo trade) and have displayed a willingness to part with young pitching (pitching prospect Chris Vallimont was included in the Romo trade) as they have little chance of being competitive in the near future.

    Alcantara would be a cheap young piece the Twins could add to their rotation, which would not only potentially fill a rotation spot for years to come (he’s under team control for the next five seasons), but allow Minnesota to allocate its financial resources to signing additional free-agent pitching. Plus, there is a lot to like in Alcantara.

    Alcantara throws both a four- and two-seam fastball along with a slider, changeup, and curve. He throws hard, averaging 95.6 on his four-seamer and 95.3 on his sinker, and would give pitching coach Wes Johnson plenty to work with. Alcantara showed the ability to go deep into games as he threw two complete-game shutouts and tallied 197.1 innings on the year. Also encouraging is the fact that he seemed to get better as the season progressed, pitching to a 2.78 ERA and allowing just a .595 OPS from August onward (74.1 innings).

    The biggest thing holding Alcantara back has been his lack of strikeouts combined with spotty control. In the first half of 2019 his K-BB% was just 5.3 % but that did rise to 11.6% in the second half and was up to 15.2 % in September/October. He has the stuff to get more strikeouts and working with Wes Johnson could go a long way toward maximizing Alcantara’s potential.

    The Twins have plenty of young international bats that may intrigue the Marlins, including Wander Javier, Gilberto Celestino, Yunior Severino, and Misael Urbina. Any of those young hitters alone are unlikely to be enough to acquire Alcantara, but including one of them in a package with another prospect or two in the 5 – 10 range might work.

    Outside of the Marlins and Alcantara there are plenty of tanking teams that may be willing to part with young pitching and the Twins would be wise to do their due diligence. Filling the rotation will be neither cheap or easy but it is imperative that Minnesota be ready to explore every opportunity.

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    A package of Gordon, Duran, and Rooker sounds like a decent starting point. Marlins get a younger replacement for Alcantara, that probably fits better with their timeline of contention, and two potential everyday players for the right side of their infield. Probably could add a lottery ticket like Sands to the deal, but maybe they’d want more certainty in a young bullpen arm like Littell.

    Starting point?? Duran wouldn’t be traded for Sandy straight up. Nor would Rooker. Sandy projects as back the rotation or bullpen type

    Edited by AZTwin
    Starting point?? Duran wouldn’t be traded for Sandy straight up. Nor would Rooker. Sandy projects as back the rotation or bullpen type

     

    I think I worded that incorrectly, I meant I think that the offer I proposed might be right around what it would take to get a deal done. However, I don’t disagree that that might be an overpayment, although I think Alcantara’s potential is worth overpaying for. I mean, he is a first time all-star with 5 years of control left... Personally, if all it took was Duran, I’d seriously think about pulling the trigger; leaving Gordon and Rooker for another trade (maybe another starter).

    Starting point?? Duran wouldn’t be traded for Sandy straight up. Nor would Rooker. Sandy projects as back the rotation or bullpen type

    I would value Duran more. Rooker? Probably not. Corner outfielders are more fungible than 4th starters.

    Trying to project trade values is nearly impossible, but I think a good way to try to test ideas is by imagining you were a fan of the other team you're dealing with.

     

    The Marlins are a rebuilding team that lost 105 games. Alcantara was their second-best player and won't become a free agent until 2025. He's one of the few building blocks that org has who's shown he can produce at the MLB level. Why trade him? Only if you make for damn sure you're getting excess value in return.

     

    Not sure this actually matters anymore in Miami, but trading him for a player in the lower levels would send such a terrible message. If I was a Marlins fan, I'd at least want someone who's had success at the Double-A level. Someone who could potentially contribute sometime in 2019. Actually, probably more than one of those guys.

     

    Is there a match with the Twins? Again, it's nearly impossible to say for certain, but I'd prefer to use those assets to acquire more of a known commodity at this stage of the Twins' competitive cycle.

    If Wes Johnson and the brain trust see something they could tweak, a guy that throws complete games and has 197 inning seasons would definitely be worth a #6-#10 prospect. Especially for a young guy still learning.

    Too many people think what a rookie player shows is their best. Usually you don’t know what you got until years 3-5. After a meeting with my pitching gurus, I’d make the proposed trade

     

    Trying to project trade values is nearly impossible, but I think a good way to try to test ideas is by imagining you were a fan of the other team you're dealing with.

     

    The Marlins are a rebuilding team that lost 105 games. Alcantara was their second-best player and won't become a free agent until 2025. He's one of the few building blocks that org has who's shown he can produce at the MLB level. Why trade him? Only if you make for damn sure you're getting excess value in return.

     

    Not sure this actually matters anymore in Miami, but trading him for a player in the lower levels would send such a terrible message. If I was a Marlins fan, I'd at least want someone who's had success at the Double-A level. Someone who could potentially contribute sometime in 2019. Actually, probably more than one of those guys.

     

    Is there a match with the Twins? Again, it's nearly impossible to say for certain, but I'd prefer to use those assets to acquire more of a known commodity at this stage of the Twins' competitive cycle.

    Who then would you propose Tom?

     

    What I would hate to see is us overpay in trade for a proven commodity, Robbie Ray is one example that comes to my mind. Or continuing to fill our rotation with dregs such as Martin Perez. Hopefully we can sign a Cole or a Wheeler along with a Pineda or a Hamels and feel at ease about the rotation.

     

    Just being honest, I know nothing about the Marlins. I just don't pay attention to them. So I know pretty much nothing about Alcantara either. But this is the kind of thinking they should be employing. While peripherals may be poor, he showed improvement, is young, controllable and high velocity is always good. Im betting Johnson would love to work with all of that. But there remains real questions here. I'm thinking 1 top 10 guy and 1 in the second 10 and maybe a toss in. Fair? Too high?

    That's pretty much my thinking too. I don't know much about Alcantara but these are the types of not-so-flashy trades that the Twins need to make at this point, hoping for another Odorizzi or something even more impressive. Gotta take the chance and even give up some good prospects, but we need more arms.




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