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    The Twins Offense Boasts Plenty of Upside Going Forward


    Nick Nelson

    Through the first third of the season, the Minnesota Twins offense hasn't exactly been the imposing powerhouse we hoped it would be. But they bats have still been pretty decent overall, despite facing some major tribulations, and high-caliber help is on the way. 

    The outlook for this offensive unit remains bright, even if the lineup has been navigating some murky times in April and May.

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    The biggest concern for the offense heading into this 2024 campaign, as I outlined during the offseason, was the threat of regression coming for three players who were all key contributors to the offense as rookies: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. Each of the three posted an OPS+ north of 130 in 2023, during which they were worth a combined 6.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs.

    Well, that sophomore regression bug bit right on cue. Lewis missed almost the entire first two months with an injury. Wallner batted .080 in 13 games before being demoted to the minors, where he's struggled to find himself. Julien has been the most productive of the bunch, but entered play on Monday with a sub-.200 batting average, his OPS+ down 40 points from last year. Julien's unraveling plate approach is forcing the Twins to consider a similar course of action as they took with Wallner.

    In spite of these developments, through 52 games, the Twins have been almost exactly a league-average offense. Among 30 MLB teams, they rank 16th in runs scored, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in fWAR from position players. 

    In addition to the massive drop-off in production from the aforementioned sophomore trio, the Twins have also endured injured list stints from Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, as well as jarringly lackluster performance from the likes of Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Christian Vázquez. The latter, in particular, has been an extraordinary drain: Vázquez ranks last in the majors in OPS (by 40 points) among players with 100+ plate appearances, and has individually accounted for more than 5% of the team's total at-bats.

    In light of all these hindrances, it really is pretty amazing that the Twins have managed to remain in the middle of the pack as an offensive unit. It speaks to a few different things – how good guys like Correa, Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro and José Miranda have been, but also how much the bar has been lowered for league-wide production as a whole. 

    The average big-league hitter currently has a sub-.700 OPS, which provides valuable benchmarking context. We're in an environment where, say, Buxton's .250/.296/.414 slash line is better than average, even though it's not the level anyone hopes to see from him. Generally speaking, pitchers are running the show right now in Major League Baseball, and that's important to keep in mind when evaluating how teams are performing offensively.

    All of this is to say that the Twins have really nowhere to go but up. We've likely seen their floor over the first third of the season, and it still was not abnormally bad compared to the league as a whole. The distribution of their run-scoring, with a dominant 20-game run surrounded by drought-filled stretches, has certainly been unusual, but that kind of thing tends to even out in the long term. Meanwhile, reinforcements are on the way.

    Lewis is rehabbing in Triple-A and could rejoin the lineup as soon as next weekend, restoring the team's best hitter to the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Brooks Lee also started a rehab stint last week, piling up a bunch of hits in rookie ball, and is set to take the next step to Single-A this week en route to St. Paul. In spring training he was making a strong case for stealing a roster spot; Lee's switch-hitting bat looks ready to roll.

    On top of all that, the Twins also have an outfield prospect named Emmanuel Rodriguez with a 1.079 OPS as a 21-year-old at Double-A. It's only a matter of time before the ultra-patient slugger gets promoted to Triple-A, and from there it's not out of the question he could join the fold with a second-half rookie jolt akin to what Minnesota got from Julien and Wallner last season.

    It's easy to get caught up in some of the underwhelming performances we've seen and the generally uneven nature of the Twins offense. League-average production is nothing to get excited about. But it feels like what we've seen so far is the downside of this lineup, whereas going forward, it's easy to see plenty of upside.

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    8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I'm an optimist for the offense the rest of this season and going forward. Big surprise huh? LOL

    Getting Lewis back and for the rest of the season is of tremendous importance. That's a given. But ANY thought of sending down Miranda would be idiotic. He's young and doing well again. He can backup 3B, play some at 1B, and DH. You KEEP your best bats! And 1B and DH are the worst performing spots in the lineup. Period. Miranda can help with that.

    Due to Jeffers, catcher is not a bottom performing spot, despite Vazquez pretty much stinking. Being a veteran, I guess there's SOME HOPE Vazquez will improve slightly. But his defense and game calling absolutely has real value regardless. A 60-40 split between Jeffers and Vazquez should be the norm going forward, with Vaz starting against LHP as much as possible to help mitigate his overall lack of production. Considering he's not a bad bunter, I wouldn't hesitate to use him in that capacity from time to time with runners on base, similar to a pitcher batting 9th.

    I'm super excited about Emmanuel Rodriguez, what he's doing, and what he might become. And I think he's close to heading to AAA. But placing hopes on a 21yo to jump to MLB and be a savior is misguided at best. And while I have great hope/expectations for Lee, he's a few weeks away from helping with all of the time he's missed. I'd like to think he's 2nd half help if an injury happens, IF Julien doesn't rebound, or IF Farmer is somehow gone, which I doubt.

    IMO, one of the biggest keys for offense is Larnach, Kirilloff, and possibly Wallner. Larnach has made major adjustments and has been productive. Despite his lack of production recently, the contact has been decent, and he's really stung the ball with little result. He can DH and if his toe heals up more, he might play a little more corner OF. Kirilloff started hot, slumped terribly, but has been on fire the past 7 to 10 days. Can he continue his upswing? He's also, potentially, part of the DH/1B conundrum as well as a little time as a corner OF. The Wallner we've seen in 2024 is just NOT the player we've seen the past 3-4 years as he climbed the milb ladder, or what he's shown at the ML level. Can he get RIGHT for the 2nd half? All 3 of these guys are potentially important for this year, and beyond, BEFORE we even fantasize about E Rodriguez and what he might become. TWO of those THREE figuring it out really changes the complexion of the roster now, and going forward. But even ONE, helps make a difference. Larnach and AK STILL have less than 800 ML AB even though it feels like they've been around forever. 

    Roster construction with Lewis being back may crowd out any immediate idea of Keirsey coming up. For now at least. But I just can't ignore a kid on the upswing for the past couple of years who is making AAA look easy. Defense, power, and speed are impossible to dismiss. Can he HIT at the ML level? We'll never know until he gets his shot one of these days. 

    The basic principles of having offensive balance of RH/LH batters is solid. But it only takes you so far, especially when you consider A] You still face RHP 75% of the time, and B] Just how good/productive ARE those "extra" RH depth batters?

    No vitriol, but Margot has done little defensively for the club, despite past reputation and ability. He's always been pretty decent...not great...against LHP. But even in that regard, he's still about 50 points behind league average OPS. Add in poor, average at best, defense and he's taking up a roster spot with very little production. June 1st is around the corner and it's time to let loose the least productive player you have rostered. 

    Note: I've removed Vazquez from the previous comments not only due to his contract, but because he's in a different discussion as a strong catcher.

    With all due respect to Farmer as a person, a teammate, his contributions in 2023, and a still solid glove, and a fairly decent uptick with the bat the past couple of weeks, he should be considered as a possible removal come July if Lee is ready and there are no significant injuries. I'm not saying he should be on the chopping block now, but there's a real chance Castro and a fully rehabbed Lee could not only be better options, but part of the future as well.

    Lewis back, Margot goes. Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Krilloff, and Castro are your OF.

    Buxton goes down at some point, time for Keirsey to get his shot. But you also have Martin in reserve, and maybe even the versatile, hot, and late blooming Helman as an option. 

    Vazquez you treat as already stated.

    This is a club that is "oh so close" to being pretty damn dangerous with Lewis back, keeping Miranda, and SOMEONE of Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner FIGURING IT OUT, even before we talk about Rodriguez and Lee. 

    Great points Doc. Margot was a mistake from the time his contract was obtained. He has proven to be an even worse mistake by his lackluster play in the field and at bat. Even his few doubles and singles are not impressive to see. Kyle Farmer is probably going to be on the team until the end of the season. But had I been the FO of the Twins, I would not have signed Farmer to a $6 million extension in view of the owners chosing to cut payroll by $30 million. Here is a question that I would appreciate someone answering. How much of the $30 million allegedly lost due to the TV contract was recouped in the "new" tv deal? Where did that new tv money go in the Twins' budget? Will someone ask Falvine and the owners and St. Peter that question. 




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