The Twins Have Rising Concerns with Workload Management

In baseball’s current landscape, few players like can play every day. The most unbreakable record in baseball, without rival, is Cal Ripken Jr.'s mark for consecutive games played. Players get injured, wear down, or deal with poor performance. The Twins have a couple of players where workload management might become a more significant issue if the team doesn’t start moderating playing time. Wins are great in the season’s early months, but it’s essential to be healthy in September and October. So, which players or position groups are bearing potentially problematic early-season workloads? How can the Twins strategically manage their workloads in the coming months?

Ryan Jeffers
Jeffers has been not only the Twins’ best hitter, but also one of baseball’s best hitters this season. He’s near the top of the league in multiple offensive categories, which is remarkable for a catcher. The Twins have continued to use a two-catcher rotation, with Jeffers splitting time with Christian Vázquez. Last season, this worked well to keep both players healthy, as neither player needed time on the IL. Minnesota has used Jeffers regularly at DH to keep his bat in the lineup, which might cause his body to wear down throughout the season. He’s started 19 games at catcher and 14 at DH, with 40% of his plate appearances coming at DH. 

As the season progresses, there are ways for Jeffers to get more regular rest. Minnesota’s offense has been clicking with him in the lineup on a nearly daily basis. However, there are other options for the DH spot. Royce Lewis is scheduled to return in June, and the Twins might want to ease him back into a regular role with some time at DH. Other options include Byron Buxton, José Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Miranda and Larnach have shown improved offensive improvement since returning to the Twins. Buxton is on the IL, but should return shortly, while Waller has been destroying the ball for the Saints. Jeffers has been the team MVP, but they need him to be healthy in the second half.

Chris Paddack
During spring training, Paddack openly discussed wanting to be a workhorse this season, but that is unlikely in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. He has averaged 5 1/3 innings in his seven starts while averaging 90 pitches per game. He had one clunker against Baltimore, allowing nine earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Paddack bounced back in his next start with his best performance of the year, which included 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. His fastball has been one of the most valuable in baseball, with a Run Value in the 82nd percentile, a 28.3 Whiff%, and a 33.3 Put Away%. 

The Twins have already found ways to push back some of his starts this season by shuffling the rotation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the team skip some of his starts around the All-Star break, so he gets a more extended period off. Last season, the Twins had to monitor Kenta Maeda’s innings since he was returning from Tommy John surgery. He contributed 104 1/3 innings in 21 appearances (20 starts). Paddack is already at 37 1/3 innings through seven starts. There could be some fatigue as his inning count rises, so he might need an IL stint to ensure he has innings left before finishing the season.

Bullpen
There isn’t a specific player to target for managing the workload in the bullpen, but the entire group has been used regularly to start the year. Minnesota has found itself winning regularly in recent weeks, and those wins have included a lot of close games, putting increased pressure on late-inning arms. There have been some frustrating losses recently, due to the best relievers not being available on a given night. The Twins bullpen looked great in the season’s early weeks. Still, injuries have already impacted the overall performance, with critical relievers Jhoan Durán, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, and Justin Topa missing time. Without these late-inning arms, other relievers have been forced to take on higher-leverage roles. 

The Twins rank 19th in innings pitched from the bullpen this season, but they have the highest strikeout rate and second-highest strand rate in the American League. Since the start of last season, the Twins have been the best team in baseball when leading entering the ninth inning (90-1 record, .989 winning percentage). Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has also been more strategic in using his late-inning options, including having Durán enter in the eighth if the opposition has the heart of their lineup scheduled to hit. Besides Durán, five other players have earned a save this season, including Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Cole Sands, and Steven Okert. It’s been a recipe for success, but the team needs it to last all year. 

Minnesota has valued depth at multiple spots on the roster in recent years. As the season progresses, workload management needs to be part of the team’s plan. Jeffers and Paddack are critical to their position groups, while the bullpen needs to be effective for the team to have continued success. Every win is important, but it’s even more important to be healthy entering the playoffs.

Which player or position group needs their workload managed the most? Leave a comment and start the discussion.