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    The Table Setter, Dec 8: Cultural Historians, Utility Players, and a Unicorn


    Matthew Trueblood

    It feels like, after a stressful (if ultimately inactive) week and a flurry of movement as the Winter Meetings broke up, the league took a breather on Thursday. So much the better. Let's have a casual Friday baseball chat.

    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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    Another former Twins pitcher has found a new home, with Jorge Lopez signing a one-year, $2-million deal with the Mets. His moment as a dominant reliever for the Orioles a few years ago feels beyond recapture by now, but he's a conscientious and talented person. All the best to him.

    What Kind of Decade Has it Been?
    This will seem to come from left field, but let me ask you: How is baseball doing at reflecting and shaping America? I like to go back and re-read old things I've written, sometimes, to improve and to remind myself how much I once sucked (the better to take a patient pen to the work of my talented colleagues here). Last night, I came upon this post from late 2012, when Jacques Barzun's death coincided with the World Series.

    It got me back to thinking about what I wrote at the time--in essence, that I hoped the game was starting to turn back toward its country and have a better impact on it. I'm having a very hard time evaluating the last decade-plus, in that way. There have been some external occurrences in our world that make it hard to parse cause and effect, even when it's clear that baseball has been associated with some change. I am glad, though, that I feel like the game has made some important progress in demographic representation and equity during that span. Obviously, there's a long way left to go.

    The Skill of Finding Good Utility Guys Cheaply
    I really liked Hunter McCall's piece yesterday about the Twins' affinity for the high-volume utility man. We know the value of guys who can hit enough to work their way into the lineup more than half the time, while working their way around the diamond to deliver defensive value and keep people fresh. 

    I find it especially noteworthy, though, that (in contrast with half a decade ago, when the team brought in Marwin Gonzalez as a very expensive version of that player) Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are developing a knack for finding, acquiring, and/or developing valuable, versatile guys on the cheap. It's not just Willi Castro (who signed a minor-league deal last winter), nor Nick Gordon, nor Luis Arraez. They also signed Donovan Solano very inexpensively during spring training back in February. As Hunter noted, they have Castro, Gordon, and Austin Martin from whom to choose for 2024.

    It's pretty hard to reliably find a utility or platoon guy in free agency. You want someone who can play multiple positions, and play them well (who's ever hoping for below-average defense?), but not play any of them so well that they can find a market as a regular at just one position. You want someone who crushes opposite-handed pitching, but who struggles against same-handed hurlers, because otherwise, they're going to command the money that goes with being a credible full-time player. It's a tough needle to thread. That's why each developmental win that yields that kind of player is valuable, and why I'm impressed that the front office nailed it with both Castro and Solano last offseason.

    Is It Cold in Shohei's Shadow?
    Yes, we're still waiting to hear where Shohei Ohtani will spend the next decade of his life. (Although, joy of joys, it sure sounds like whatever deal he ends up signing will include some opt-outs, so maybe we'll have the chance to do this elaborate free agency lambada again in a few years.) It's clear that this unresolved situation is still holding up some significant segment of the market, but will it have any impact on the Twins when he does decide?

    I'm not sure it will. We know the Twins are planning to keep their heads and their payroll low for most of this winter. We know how they slow-play the market even in more typical winters. That said, we also know that they want to trade for a starting pitcher this winter. There are a fairly insane number of starting pitching transactions hanging and hinging on this decision. 

    The chain reaction goes:

    • Ohtani signs.
    • Based on who gets him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto's market gains clarity.
    • Yamamoto signs, and everyone left without one of the Big Two starts scrambling to find a chair as the music stops.

    Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, and still more starters are alleged to be available on the trade market. At this point, I'm pretty sure those floodgates can't open until Ohtani's choice pushes Yamamoto in some definitive direction. The Twins probably aren't in on any of those names, but whichever guys they do end up targeting, they're probably not truly on the market until a couple of those names move. Thus, alas: Yes, Ohtani is stalling the Twins, too.

    Happy Friday. Let's talk baseball.

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Matthew,

    I know you say the Twins PROBABLY aren't in on any of those 4 names (I don't at all see Bieber or Cease, mostly for in-division trades of that level just aren't common) but if you had to guess, what type of names could you see them in on?

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the past decade as well. Your writing is very much appreciated.

    Have a great day!

    2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, and still more starters are alleged to be available on the trade market. At this point, I'm pretty sure those floodgates can't open until Ohtani's choice pushes Yamamoto in some definitive direction. The Twins probably aren't in on any of those names, but whichever guys they do end up targeting, they're probably not truly on the market until a couple of those names move. Thus, alas: Yes, Ohtani is stalling the Twins, too

    I was thinking yesterday about how expensive it is to buy those extra years of control. I wonder if targeting a pitcher with 1 year of control each year might be optimal. The Twins couldn’t put a package together to acquire someone Burnes two years ago but now it is feasible. Glasnow and Bieber are almost reasonable. They would constantly be trading out good but not their best prospects. They would get some resupply with comp picks.

    Why not trade Festa and Miranda (or Schobel) for Glasnow or Bieber and do it again next year and the year after?

    1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

    I was thinking yesterday about how expensive it is to buy those extra years of control. I wonder if targeting a pitcher with 1 year of control each year might be optimal. The Twins couldn’t put a package together to acquire someone Burnes two years ago but now it is feasible. Glasnow and Bieber are almost reasonable. They would constantly be trading out good but not their best prospects. They would get some resupply with comp picks.

    Why not trade Festa and Miranda (or Schobel) for Glasnow or Bieber and do it again next year and the year after?

    I'd keep Festa and bet on him being good for TC for multiple years.  Not trade him for maybe 2 years of a guy probably about to start or already in his downhill run.

    39 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

    Glasnow seems like a lousy, lousy fit.

    He is only 1 year, expensive at $25M, has an injury history, and is not a FA so will require substantial trade capital.

    Bad, bad and more bad for the Twins.

    That was my initial thought and then I looked at alternatives.

    Glasnow is projected for 3.8 WAR. His salary is 25 million which really helps. Think of that value as cash in the deal to avoid prospect cost. At 25M his surplus value is only 12.8. Festa can headline a deal at that level. At the end of the year Glasnow can be offered a qualifying offer with a comp pick in return.

    What are the alternatives? The prospect cost of a pitcher with three years of control projected at 3.8 WAR will be very high. Still using Glasnow as an example, he is project for 37.8 in value. Over three years that is 113.4. A player like this would likely just be entering their ARB years. That might be 35M over 3 years. The prospect cost for getting a similar pitcher with three years of control is 78.4. That would cost Lewis plus a little more or it could be Lee or Jenkins plus Julien to get there.

    I would rather trade a Festa each year than a Lewis every three years. It does have payroll implications but that is mostly year 1 when the three year player’s arb award is low.

    If Glasgow is a risk then go after Burnes or Bieber. Risks can be found in all. It is the concept of targeting players with one year of control every year that I am considering. The prospect cost is much lower and comp picks will come back.

    1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

    Glasnow seems like a lousy, lousy fit.

    He is only 1 year, expensive at $25M, has an injury history, and is not a FA so will require substantial trade capital.

    Bad, bad and more bad for the Twins.

    It's certainly not a perfect fit salary wise. But he is a full year removed from tommy john, and SHOULD be plenty motivated to reach free agency in 10ish months.

    The Twins would have to trade capital that would amount to equal what they think he would produce for them in 2024, along with knowing that they would get a pick once he leaves after receiving the QO next offseason (assuming that.)

    It's not substantial if you are comparing it to an arm with his kind of talent who has 3 years team control remaining, but it still would cost a bit. 

    I'd be in favor of Glasnow being a Twin in 2024. 

    2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    Why not trade Festa and Miranda (or Schobel) for Glasnow or Bieber and do it again next year and the year after?

    Trades totally depend on the pitcher and ask and of course everyone knows that. So, looking at the year, context, and details we should understand that Glasnow is too much money, unless we completely do not take the Twins at their word. Bieber would be a trade in division and he has struggled with injuries the past couple of years. David Festa is the Twins top starting pitcher prospect. The Twins are more likely to trade Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez, which I would disagree with unless the return was a George Kirby/ Logan Gilbert deal. For 2024 money is an issue (according to the Twins). Certain players will be difficult to acquire. The Twins need to be judicious about which prospects are available. 

    There are still potential trades to be made, but I'm guessing that these transactions will be more from the position players side than the pitchers. Teams trade from surplus and pitching is dear within the Twins system.

    Don't get me wrong-I like Glasnow as a pitcher, who wouldn't?  But the Twins are trying to cut payroll.  Why would they pay Glasnow $25M for 1 year when they could have had Gray back for that price, Cy Young runner up?  I know more years, but he is a known commodity.  Or Maeda for 2 years at that price.

    I think Glasnow is a long shot based on the money.  Happy to be wrong! :)



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