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    The Positive of Reducing Payroll


    Cody Pirkl

    The Twins are cutting and potentially slashing payroll this winter. While this will undoubtedly result in a rightfully negative response, it will create opportunity. Which players stand to benefit from the Twins reducing payroll?

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    If the reports hold that the Twins are attempting to cut payroll from over $150m in 2023 to $125-140, the expectations for activity this offseason can be lowered significantly. The downside of this is obvious. The Twins likely can’t afford to bring in a proven slugger like Rhys Hoskins for first base. Safer Sonny Gray replacements, such as Eduardo Rodriguez or Aaron Nola, can be all but written off. There will be plenty of negativity around this news, and it’s all warranted. However, the payroll reduction will create opportunities for some players within the organization, likely the sole positive of pulling back on spending.

    Austin Martin
    With center field as one of the primary needs this offseason, Martin could be part of the solution. It would be great to sign Kevin Kiermaier or bring back Michael A. Taylor, but these names may price themselves out of the Twins' plans due to requiring multiple years or a one-year deal at a premium.

    Willi Castro became a passable center fielder in 2023, and they still hope that Byron Buxton will return to the field at some point. Austin Martin would be the fallback option, undoubtedly getting a big chance to stick in 2024 if everything stays the same.

    Martin slashed .263/.386/.405 in St. Paul last season, and the Twins are high on his ability to handle center. He stole 16 bases in 59 games, and his six homers were the most he’s hit in a season in professional ball. Martin’s skill set would be a great complement to the Twins' lineup with his ability to get on base and lack of strikeouts, and he could even become a platoon leadoff hitter against lefties if everything breaks right.

    Yunior Severino
    Even after Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder injury proved less significant than initially thought, the Twins likely need more confidence in the former top prospect’s ability to lock down first base for 2024. A right-handed option to platoon is a reasonable ask to insulate the position. Such a role may be less of a priority with limited funds available. 

    Severino has little to prove after leading the minors with 35 homers in 2023. He got off to a rough start in his Triple-A debut but finished with a slash line of .233/.320/.511, and the Twins saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster after the season. 

    Severino is a strikeout-prone light tower power hitter with a defensive profile likely to slot in best at first base. His ability to switch hit makes up for some of his lack of versatility, and he could carve out a career for himself as an all-or-nothing slugger capable of being a legitimate offensive weapon when he’s running hot. At 24 years old, Severino’s time may come in 2024, as the first call-up should Alex Kirilloff miss more time.

    Jair Camargo
    To combat the financial limitations, the Twins may not only spend less but look to shed salary from places they can afford to add elsewhere adequately. Should they decide to do so, Christian Vazquez becomes a prime candidate to ship out to another team. After not appearing in a single postseason game, it’s obvious Vazquez is the backup to Ryan Jeffers, and his total collapse offensively in 2023 makes him more replaceable despite his still great defense.

    Camargo profiles as a perfect backup catcher: He spent all of 2023 in St. Paul, hitting .259/.323/.503 with 21 homers in 90 games, he has received solid reviews on his defense and pitch calling, and his raw power gives him enough of a floor to be an asset to an MLB squad for several years.

    Camargo would likely debut in 2024 regardless after being added to the 40-man. Trading away an MLB catcher may push him onto the Opening Day roster.

    The Twins have internal options should they slash payroll, as in addition to the listed names above, they have several other young players on their way. Deshaun Kiersey Jr. may create a strong career for himself in center field. Several pitchers, such as David Festa, could see an earlier debut should the Twins shop in the bargain bin to replace Sonny Gray. At least with the deflating news comes the excitement of young players potentially debuting.

    Are there any other internal options that stand to benefit from the payroll decrease? Let us know below!

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    16 hours ago, Linus said:

    Yea the whole notion is kind of silly. If you want to play young players then play them. You don’t need a payroll cut to justify it. 

    While I agree, it's kind of like arguing that the Twins should have a $200m payroll. We can say that's what they should do, but it's just not how they operate and therefore isn't worth arguing. If they signed Carlos Santana this winter and he hit .150 while Yunior Severino had a 1.000 OPS in Triple-A, it's probably July before they even consider making a change. Unfortunately that's how they operate.

    1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

    Counter point: Twins sign the next Joey Gallo at $12m this winter and maintain the same payroll. That player is one of the worst players in baseball and gets a guaranteed roster spot all season because they're a veteran making money. Meanwhile 2024's version of Matt Wallner is stuck in St. Paul for half of the season and it's a terrible look when they finally get called up and have clearly been ready for months. We just saw it play out in 2023, just playing devils advocate.

    It's obviously unacceptable that the payroll appears to be getting cut. Sure these options already existed, but we know the Twins wouldn't have used them until they had no other choice if they signed potentially washed up veterans, regardless of performance on either end.

    I'd rather the Twins go out and sign Cody Bellinger for CF or Aaron Nola to replace Sonny Gray, but it doesn't appear that's going to happen, so these are the players that likely stand to benefit. Some of them could turn into valuable MLB players. That's worth discussing.

    Obviously, if you assume they make a bad signing the dollars don't help.  That risk obviously exists for any team.  Just look around the league at all the free agents who are mediocre or worse.  BTW .... There were 150 position players with a lower WAR and 230 with a lower wRC+.  The whole "one of the worst" players in the league is way over the top.

    There is a bright side or upside of giving some young guys a shot.  It's definitely the silver the lining.  

    On 11/13/2023 at 10:05 PM, ashbury said:

    Flip side is that none of the outside talent brought in exactly set the world on fire in 2023. 

    Maybe the lesson, with Joey Gallo exhibit A as evidence, is that the FO ought not to be trusted to spend one penny on anyone not already on the roster.   :)

    They've done pretty well with Pablo Lopez, Nelson Cruz, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Kenta Maeda.  They've also added Lewis, Jeffers, Julien, Ober, Lee, E-Rod, and Jenkins to the organization during their regime.

    I'm not suggesting the FO should be trusted implicitly and/or completely, but if you really think they shouldn't be allowed to add players to the organization, then they quite obviously need to be fired.

    2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

    They've done pretty well with Pablo Lopez, Nelson Cruz, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Kenta Maeda.  They've also added Lewis, Jeffers, Julien, Ober, Lee, E-Rod, and Jenkins to the organization during their regime.

    I'm not suggesting the FO should be trusted implicitly and/or completely, but if you really think they shouldn't be allowed to add players to the organization, then they quite obviously need to be fired.

    I'll have to locate a better emoticon than :) when I want to suggest that not every word is meant literally and exaggeration is being used as a different way to make a point.  :roll::roll::roll::roll:

    So, to be more direct, no, I don't advocate a house cleaning in the FO.  Last off-season after two losing seasons I felt that a big change had to be at least on the table if 2023 turned out to be more of the same.  I even felt this if they slid into the post-season due to a weak division but then made a quick exit in the post-season.  Fair or not, two entertaining wins over Toronto and then a creditable showing versus a good Houston team are enough for me to keep going where they're going.  My concern that the franchise was being driven into the ditch is lessened - I'll save for another time my remaining concern.

    And no, my point isn't to hamstring Falvey and Levine's moves, beyond what ownership seems to be doing to them already for 2024 (the topic of the article).  It just seemed fair to point out the converse of the statistical ranking of the batters in 2023 was due in part to Gallo, Farmer, Castro being no great shakes with the bat. (Jury on Castro being a little bit out, but he's on the roster for his versatility.)  The ranking I was responding to was for 2023, and for hitting only (not overall position play), so there's no need to turn this into a retrospective of past years, nor of the pitching acquisitions.

    It was a joke, to make a point.  Didn't land, oh well.  🦄

    On 11/14/2023 at 1:46 PM, Major League Ready said:

    Obviously, if you assume they make a bad signing the dollars don't help.  That risk obviously exists for any team.  Just look around the league at all the free agents who are mediocre or worse.  BTW .... There were 150 position players with a lower WAR and 230 with a lower wRC+.  The whole "one of the worst" players in the league is way over the top.

    There is a bright side or upside of giving some young guys a shot.  It's definitely the silver the lining.  

    Gallo was absolutely one of the worst players in the league. He's a below average fielding outfielder at this point and about average at first base by DRS and Outs Above Average. There may be players with worst offensive stats, but teams will be willing to give just about anybody else a shot to play corner infield over Gallo who will be average at best defensively while posting a below average slash line (his was only positive because of the first two weeks of the season) while approaching a 50% strikeout rate. Not to mention his absolutely brutal baserunning. The Twins probably could have gotten the same production or better down the stretch from Yunior Severino if they'd switched him to first base earlier in the season. Gallo was pretty much the worst case scenario for how a big chunk of salary can be used. He did very little on the field to help the Twins win for the last 5 and a half months of the season.




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