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    The Painful Truth?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Terry Ryan has formed a rock-solid reputation during his decades in the game of baseball, in large part because of his integrity and honesty. Say what you will about the man, but he will always give you his sincere opinion.

    Sometimes, that honesty isn't so refreshing.

    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today Sports

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    Here are three quotes that Ryan has provided on three separate occasions since the season ended:

    “We’re not broke here, we’re bent. We’ve got some issues, and we need to make better decisions. But I feel a heck of a lot better about this club and moving forward than I did a year ago,” Ryan said. “I don’t think we’re all that far away [from contention]. I don’t want to punt on 2015, but it’s still going to be a struggle.”

    - Conference call with season ticket holders (via Star Tribune)

    "No one said this is going to be easy. It’s going to take a lot of work and a little time,” Ryan said. “But the worst thing that could happen is, yeah, we’ve had four bad years. I don’t want it to turn into 14 bad years. Sometimes you make decisions that ultimately are going to benefit you down the line that don’t look exactly like what you want right now.”

    - Phil Miller story from Tuesday's Star Tribune

    "There isn’t any shortcut to this thing. I’m not going to pretend that this thing’s going to come together in the next six months. We’ve got a lot of work to do, I know it. I’m not going to hide and I’m not going to pretend. … I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but for everybody’s sake the sooner that we get this thing going in the right direction, the better."

    - Interview with Parker Hageman for the upcoming Offseason Handbook

    Hey Terry, maybe lighten up a little and leave the doom and gloom to the bloggers, eh? The season ended two weeks ago, for crying out loud! Is there a need to keep not-so-implicitly suggesting that we're likely to be in for another rough one next season when the sting of this year's 92nd loss remains so fresh?

    On some level, I can appreciate what TR is doing. He's being frank and stern in his assessments of a roster that -- objectively -- still appears to be a ways off from contention. He doesn't want to blow smoke after four straight miserable years. I'll take that over the delusional rah-rah Tim Brewster rhetoric.

    But while I'm sure Ryan is more hopeful than the above quotes would indicate, it sure seems like I have more faith in the ability of this team to be competitive next year than he does -- and I'm no eternal optimist.

    Hopefully his actions this offseason don't match his words, but Phil Miller's story in Tuesday's Star Tribune emits little optimism on that front.

    In the article, Ryan and team president Dave St. Peter share the same sentiment: payroll is likely to remain more or less static heading into 2015. In fact, St. Peter would only go so far as to say "we don't see it going down significantly."

    Team execs bristle whenever the payroll topic is brought up, and I'm not one to wave the "spend money because you owe the taxpayers!" torch, but they've got to at least acknowledge that they bring this upon themselves.

    In 2013, the Twins ranked 22nd in the majors with an Opening Day payroll of $76 million. In 2014, thanks to big signings like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, that number rose to $86 million. But despite the splurge, Minnesota's MLB rank dropped to 24th, because every single team that had sported a lower payroll in 2013 spent even more during the offseason.

    If the Twins stay at $86 million or drop slightly, they'll likely be passed by a couple more teams, because with substantial new revenues flowing into the game from new TV mega-deals that kicked in this year, small-market franchises are spending more.

    That said, it's not the payroll rank relative to other teams that bothers me, nor the dubiousness of this supposed "50 percent of revenue" standard. I'm just dispirited by the messages being conveyed.

    I wouldn't advocate "spending just to spend," and I fully recognize that the Twins are in a position where they basically they have to roll with what they've got, but they have an acute need in left field with no answer in the pipeline.

    I'd like to think that Ryan will at least aggressively pursue a quality player there to supplement his emerging core, but going after the most highly sought assets -- whether in free agency, or trade, or the international market -- requires a willingness to spend.

    To see both the general manager and team president downplaying that whole notion so early in the offseason, at a time where fan morale is dreadfully low and the team is hemorrhaging season ticket holders, seems rather bizarre.

    I'm depressed from reading this stuff as a fan. I can only imagine how the players must feel.

    A friend reminded me of a quote that Glen Perkins shared back in June, after the Twins signed Kendrys Morales:

    “It means a lot to the guys in here,” closer Glen Perkins said Sunday of the signing of Kendrys Morales to be the Twins’ new designated hitter. “Making moves like that, taking chances on making us better, it goes a long way for giving guys confidence, and knowing we’re all on the same page.”

    Hopefully Ryan and the Twins will heed these words from their All-Star closer, and reconsider their stated offseason course. This roster ain't so bad. They need some pitchers to bounce back, but there are some nice young arms ready to make an impact, and the offensive unit is quite strong with elite prospects set to join soon. Youthful teams can emerge from the abyss quite quickly, as the two squads presently facing off in the ALCS can attest.

    Don't sell these kids short. Give them some help. Or at least feign making an effort. When all you've got to sell is hope, it'd be nice to put a little out on the shelf.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Uh, I specifically mentioned Hughes and Suzuki in the context of being the good moves.

     

    And regardless of the specifics of the White Sox situation, their (relatively modest) cash-only risk on Abreu was mutually exclusive of their prospects and farm development.

    Uh, I didn't see anything in the Hughes/Suzuki sentence that connoted "good", but good, we agree, as I thought we might, about good moves like hughes and Suzuki versus bad ones like Bartlett and Kubel.

     

    This is a good topic for another thread, but you are seeing the Abreu move as mutually exclusive of their farm development, and a modest risk. I see it as 100% a reaction to their farm system, but I also saw it as a huge but understandable risk for them to take. Fortunately for them, they hit the jackpot, so give them credit. Now they just need to take the same type of gamble 2-3 more times, and voila, they're in the hunt for a wild card slot. I'll take my chances on Sano and Buxton getting us there faster, for a lot less, with a better chance to stay there.  ;)

    Edited by bird
    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Here's an idea.....maybe Ryan, when making statements about the team in prior years, was just giving his opinion about things.  He doesn't know exactly how things should or could play out, so he is offering up how he sees at that time.

     

    Take free agency: some people act like he should just say "We are going to sign a high end pitcher".  Well, he might try his best to make that happen and, newsflash, finds out that people with choices don't want to come here, even for the same amount of money.

    Well, acquiring talent is part of his job.  If he's been trying for 3 years and has been shutout (or the biggest spend he could make was Ricky Nolasco), that's hardly a mark in his favor as GM of a MLB team.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Or, they rapidly promote Rodon, AND sign a FA. It isn't just about FA for the Sox. I think I read recently (KLAW maybe?) that the White Sox have a very good farm system, top to bottom......like in the top 10.

     

    Well, we were discussing Abreu, because last year it WAS just about FA for the Sox, as their farm system had zero to offer for 2014.

     

    But yes, it appears the Whitie's farm system, which was ranked #28 by at least one source last year, is improving rapidly. And as you of all people know, mike, this is because they don't stink at developing players, unlike the Twins. It has absolutely nothing to do with the draft order.

    Edited by bird
    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,005

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Well, we were discussing Abreu, but yes, it appears the Whitie's farm system, which was ranked #28 by at least one source last year, is improving rapidly. And as you of all people know, mike, this is because they don't stink at developing players, unlike the Twins. It has absolutely nothing to do with the draft order.

     

    I've never said that. Here is what I've said (like, almost word for word):

     

    1. It is easier to draft at the top of the draft. I acknowledge that.

    2. If your strategy is to largely ignore elite FAs, and to not trade for expensive MLB players, you need to be BETTER than other teams at drafting and developing to remain relevant. If you are just as good as everyone else, you probably shouldn't have your 6 figure or 7 job.

    3. In the time Beane has been the GM, they've never lost 90 games. They have never had to tank to remain competitive (though it hasn't worked every year).

    4. The Cards and other teams have found ways to consistently draft late, and develop players. I have no idea if it is luck or skill.

    5. I think that something went wrong in the draft for this team. I don't know that it is JUST drafting late. They missed on a lot of high picks for several years, including years with more than 2 supplemental picks. It appears that their picks after round 1 are better the last few years. A change was made in scouting director, I think, and it appears to be working.

     

    I have never once failed to acknowledge that draft order matters.......I have consistently said that if you won't/don't sign many FAs, you need to be better than other teams, not just the same as them. I have also said that four straight years of 90+ losses indicates something is wrong in player development, as does the need for 80% of your SP staff being from outside your org.......

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,261

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Hate to rehash old comments, but sometimes, they can have a direct, affecting correlation to new comments. Therefore.......

     

    2010, our Twins were a top ML club, division winner and playoff participant with a 94 win team and virtually everyone back for 2011. Everyone felt the Twins were again a top team and division/playoff contender for 2011 with almost the entire team back plus or minus a few alterations.

     

    We all know what happened in 2011. Ryan's fault? Gardy's fault? FO not spending enough on payroll? No, no and no. No fault, no double talk, no cheapskates as the Twins had the highest payroll in their existence to keep the team together.

     

    2012 is debatable. Some would say after such a horrible and snakebit and disappointing season such as 2011, the Twins should have been smart enough and long sighted enough to blow the team up then and begin over. However, the Twins perspective was to make a few moves, simply get healthy again, and keep the team at its 3rd HIGHEST PAYROLL EVER while looking for a rebound season.

     

    So when we talk about 4 consecutive losing seasons, payroll and responsibility, we need to keep perspective and not simply get lost in vitriol over consecutive disappointments.

     

    Now, if Ryan ever has been blindly naive, or disingenuous with the fanbase, it would be for 2013 and 2014. But as forthright and optimistic as Ryan has generally been, I wouldn't have expected him to just announce to everyone that the team was going to probably lose, that few if any prospects were ready yet, so just hang on.

     

    Right now, it appears the FO is talking out of both sides of their mouth, and they probably are in fact. But the season is just ended, team winter organization meetings just started, and we're a long way from actual trade and FA season. Not sure why the Twins would tip their hand to everyone out there at this point.

     

    Rightly or wrongly, I'm putting my faith in actions and not early rhetoric. The Twins made moves to add to the team, and payroll last season. They attempted additional moves that didn't end up happening that would have added more, and in some cases, substantially more. And once again, they did add more with the Morales signing. So for now at least, when I hear two different sets of numbers and perspectives coming out, this early in the game, while examining recent trends by the team, I'm going with the more expensive and optimistic comments that have been presented.

     

     

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Elaborating on how much better the Sox, among most other teams, are so much better than the Twins, who by your account stink at developing players despite having a high draft order:

     

    After Rodon, of the next half-dozen top Sox prospects, NONE were ranked among Sickle's updated top 75 prospects. I think SIX Twins were. The highest grade given any of them was B- and two were C/C+. The lowest ranking for the Twin's half-dozen top prospects, excluding Buxton, was a B+, with Sano ranked as A.

     

    Their Tim Anderson (B-) is our Gordon, ranked #42

    Their Montas is our Meyer, ranked #31

    Their Micah Johnson is our Polanco

    Their Hawkins, our Sano

    Their Spencer Adams, our Berrios

    Their Tyler Danish, our Kohl Stewart

     

    And our next six probably grade out ahead of all, or at least most, of the Sox  #'s 2-7: May, Burdi, Thorpe, Rosario, ABWIII, Rogers.

     

    Give the Sox credit for Abreau and some good trades to shore up a declining team, and for a good draft in 2014. But please, don't insinuate that they're somehow upstaging the Twins right now.  

    Linus

    Linus 9,149

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Well, acquiring talent is part of his job.  If he's been trying for 3 years and has been shutout (or the biggest spend he could make was Ricky Nolasco), that's hardly a mark in his favor as GM of a MLB team.

    Obviously.  The article was written about the the manner in which Ryan was expressing himself, not his track record in acquiring talent.  My post was specifically addressing the point of the article which is, fans' reaction to things that are said by TR. 

     

    If you want to rip into his track record, go ahead.  I'm pretty sure its been done before but that's not what I am talking about.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    And I'm sorry, my friend, but you have ignored the possible impact of the draft order VERY consistently throughout all our friendly conversations over the years, not once acknowledging it when I brought it up. But at least you're finally acknowledging that you have to go back a few year to find a draft year that busted, so that's progress. :)

     

    Now, if we can temper things a bit from "they stink at developing players" to something more in line with reality and fairness...

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,005

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Uh, where did I or anyone say the Sox were better right now? The place they are better, imo, is that they have been more aggressive in promoting players, and in signing FAs. No place did I say they were better. someone else might have......I did say there was a path for them to get better, that involved both their farm system and signing FAs (just as I'd say for the Twins).

    James Richter

    James Richter 208

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    While I'm not certain what TR was getting at with the decisions that "don't look exactly like you want right now" line, it made me think of Nolasco. Based on comments I've read here over the past few weeks, it seems nearly universal that he's a failure with nothing to offer over the remainder of his contract, already a sunk cost. Gang, his full season xFIP was 3.99, and his post-DL xFIP was 3.71. His BABIP allowed this year was .050 higher than his career average. It is completely reasonable to expect him to have a 2015 much more in line with his track record, and that our perception of TR's decision to sign him will be much more favorable 12 months from now.

     

    I wish TR hadn't stated an intention to stay competitive right before signing Correia and Pelfrey 2 years ago. To me, it didn't signal that he was disingenuous so much as that he didn't understand what kind of SP would actually make a difference. He took a step forward by selecting Hughes and Nolasco, but then he signed Pelfrey again, and for 2 years. I'm not sure I want him tying up a bunch more money on veteran FAs until I see some consistency in his ability to properly value the players on the market.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,005

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    And I'm sorry, my friend, but you have ignored the possible impact of the draft order VERY consistently throughout all our friendly conversations over the years, not once acknowledging it when I brought it up. But at least you're finally acknowledging that you have to go back a few year to find a draft year that busted, so that's progress. :)

     

    Now, if we can temper things a bit from "they stink at developing players" to something more in line with reality and fairness...

     

    No, I haven't. I've typed those words many times.

    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Check out Gleeman's take on all this.  I tend to agree with him, as he suggests the Twins' FO has a distorted view of themselves...

     

    http://aarongleeman.com

    The fact that Terry Ryan is still in position to be making these decisions makes my days thinking about the Twins' future glum.   Great article by Gleeman.

     

    As the Nats tried to convert from being a patsy to the contender they are, they knew that it was important to get good free agents........ not Nolasco and Pelfrey types.... but really good established players.  The had several years of rejections, as the top free agents wouldn't sign with them, but they kept at it.  Starting with Werth, who they may have paid too much for, it started to come around.  One might have to pay too much for the first signee, but that will get the momentum started.  The Twins have an attractive group soon to arrive, and now is the time to invest in the Ace that will help lead the staff to the promised land.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    This is a good topic for another thread, but you are seeing the Abreu move as mutually exclusive of their farm development, and a modest risk. I see it as 100% a reaction to their farm system, but I also saw it as a huge but understandable risk for them to take. Fortunately for them, they hit the jackpot, so give them credit. Now they just need to take the same type of gamble 2-3 more times, and voila, they're in the hunt for a wild card slot. I'll take my chances on Sano and Buxton getting us there faster, for a lot less, with a better chance to stay there.  ;)

    100% a reaction to their farm system?

     

    Is that why over half of MLB teams have bought international FA during the last 3 years?  Were all of them reacting to their farm systems, or did they see an immediate risk-reward opportunity that wasn't available to them anywhere else?

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Obviously.  The article was written about the the manner in which Ryan was expressing himself, not his track record in acquiring talent.  My post was specifically addressing the point of the article which is, fans' reaction to things that are said by TR. 

     

    If you want to rip into his track record, go ahead.  I'm pretty sure its been done before but that's not what I am talking about.

    That's great, but to use your charitable interpretation of TR's comments, you have to look at his actions too

     

    I don't think anyone EXPECTING to play meaningful games in September would settle for the Twins recent offseason hauls.  I have no doubt he was HOPING to play those meaningful games, but hope is cheap.

    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Check out Gleeman's take on all this.  I tend to agree with him, as he suggests the Twins' FO has a distorted view of themselves...

     

    http://aarongleeman.com

    That was then:

     

    http://aarongleeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pohlad-ryan-st.peter_1.jpg

     

    This is now (or was this a photo of today's CDC hearing? Either way, the "fan reaction" behind the pictured trio is hilarious.... and is also about the same for both organizations):

     

      http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/facepalm-triple.jpg

    Linus

    Linus 9,149

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    No, I don't have to look at his actions in this thread because that is not what the article is about.  Perhaps you should re-read it.

     

    My interpretations are not charitable: they are stating something very obvious.  No matter what he says or how he says it, he is going to be criticized.  I don't think there is much argument there.  If you think there is, better spend some time re-reading the 9000 threads doing exactly the same.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    100% a reaction to their farm system?

     

    Is that why over half of MLB teams have bought international FA during the last 3 years?  Were all of them reacting to their farm systems, or did they see an immediate risk-reward opportunity that wasn't available to them anywhere else?

    Yes, because they were rather low on other options to dramatically improve in 2014. They outbid everyone for Abreu because they needed to react to their rather gloomy situation. And remember, the Sox had a scandal with their international scouts awhile back, which hurt their credibility internationally. So they needed a big score, and to their credit, they got one.

     

    As for the question about teams "buying international FA over the past 3 years? Not sure what you'd be driving at, but I'd guess ALL teams are participating in international markets, and dong so does not constitute the kind of reactive move winning the Abreu bidding war suggests.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    For a second there, I was certain you were talking about the Twins...

    Well, the Sox had few minor league players to rely on. Remember, you and I had the conversation in the spring about Eric Anderson, Matt Davison (acquired for one of their very top prospects, Addison Reed), and Micah Johnson. Johnson and Davidson really disappointed big time, and Micah Johnson is probably not a true impact player, and was certainly not enough. The Sox wisely went the trade route and "overbid" for Abreu.

     

    The Twins, OTH, expected to have Sano and Buxton until late in the offseason, but they also had other options, as we saw play out with May, Vargas, Santana, and a few others. So they took the same route of using FA to get Nolasco and Hughes, but Ryan decided against trades to further improve 2014, for better or for worse, depending on your viewpoint.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    As for the question about teams "buying international FA over the past 3 years? Not sure what you'd be driving at, but I'd guess ALL teams are participating in international markets, and dong so does not constitute the kind of reactive move winning the Abreu bidding war suggests.

    I don't think all teams are participating in Cuban or Asian free agent markets, no.

     

    Over half of MLB teams have bought notable Cuban or Asian free agents since TR took over in 2011.  I do not think they were reactive.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    No, I don't have to look at his actions in this thread because that is not what the article is about.  Perhaps you should re-read it.

    Pretty sure Nick examines TR's past actions in his article, and also discusses future actions he hopes for.

     

    But I will simply drop this line of discussion rather than tell you to re-read anything.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    The Twins, OTH, expected to have Sano and Buxton until late in the offseason, but they also had other options, as we saw play out with May, Vargas, Santana, and a few others. So they took the same route of using FA to get Nolasco and Hughes, but Ryan decided against trades to further improve 2014, for better or for worse, depending on your viewpoint.

    "Expected to have" Sano and Buxton, the former having never appeared in AAA, the latter never in AA?

     

    Hughes/Nolasco do not equal Abreu, either.  The money is similar, but the upside was much larger with Abreu (and the possible benefit, as he's signed for 6 years).



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