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    Santana Shines Among Sad Starter Group

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    On Tuesday night, the Twins suffered their 12th loss in a row, as a league-worst pitching staff continues to drag them to new depths.

    Lost in the wreckage is the ongoing strong work from Ervin Santana, who has been a lone bright spot in the starting corps this year.

    Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, USA Today

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    Santana's latest pitching line, from Saturday's start in Toronto, doesn't really capture how well he pitched. The righty ended up being charged with six earned runs, but three crossed the plate after he came out of the game with two outs in the seventh inning.

    The stats from his previous 11 outings cast no such deception regarding the quality of his performance. During that stretch, Santana posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while holding opponents to a .202/.241/.285 slash line.

    Though it didn't end well, he battled impressively against a locked and loaded Blue Jays lineup during Saturday's start. It marked his fourth in a row pitching into the seventh or beyond.

    Even with the runs charged after he left inflating his numbers a bit, Santana still ranks among the top 15 American League starting pitchers in both ERA (14th, 3.54) and WHIP (12th, 1.20). By those basic result-based measures, he has been a No. 1 starter this season. To say he's been the standout in a miserable rotation doesn't really do his excellent campaign justice.

    It started out inauspiciously enough, but Santana's contract has thus far proven to be a rare free agent hit for the Twins. In 41 starts with the club, he has outperformed his career numbers almost across the board, gobbling up innings and providing the veteran stability that Terry Ryan sought when he inked Santana to a franchise record FA deal two winters ago.

    The 33-year-old hurler figures to be an interesting factor in the organization's offseason planning. On the one hand, his trade value is undoubtedly as high as it will ever be and the Twins – descending toward one of the worst finishes in team history – may be facing a complete overhaul of the pitching staff. On the other hand, swapping him for prospects would signal pretty clearly that they don't expect to be competitive in 2017.

    Are they really willing to do that with an already tenuous hold on fan interest, which according to some was the driving force behind Ryan's dismissal?

    In my opinion, the Twins need to make a reasonable effort at repairing their broken pitching unit on the fly in efforts to bounce back strong next year. The only way they can really do that while trading Santana is if the return includes young impact arms that are big-league ready or close.

    But is that even realistic? What team is needy enough for pitching that they'd deal for Santana, but at the same time has good controllable young starters they're willing to give up? Perhaps a contender that is eyeing an all-in push for 2017, but it seems unlikely.

    Even if you don't expect Santana to keep up at this rate forever, it's still hard to envision a deal that helps the Twins more than it hurts them in the short-term. Unless they're willing to blow the whole thing up and surrender the next couple years, there probably isn't going to be an offer out there that makes sense. At least, that's my take.

    What would your approach be with Santana this offseason? Build around him, or ship him out and rebuild from the ground up?

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

     

    Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

    Edited by jimmer
    wsnydes

    wsnydes 15,971

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Yeah, but I've been on the consider trading Sano or Buxton side of thinking before, and it's so unpopular that i understand why someone would rather not go there. I think you guys hit the nail square. Trade for immediate pitching, or trade for future pitching. I've said we should consider both options and take the largest return. See where we sit then, and adjust our timeline accordingly. My sneaking suspicion is that sano brings back the most franchise changing return... if nothing we offer brings back a haul, I'm not sure what we can do. Ride out another season and cross fingers on gonsalves i guess.

    I know that we've disagreed on the point about Sano and Buxton (or other prospects) in other threads, but for me it was always about the timing of it.  I'm also not convinced that one of those guys would net enough of a haul to make this team competitive next season.  But to the point I'm trying to make, you'd also need to be able to fill the hole you just created.  Trading Buxton this offseason would not only be selling low, but it would also leave this team without a CF again.  So if this is the route that is taken, Sano would have to be the guy dealt.  They have several in-house options and he's at least looked the part of a major league hitter.  That would clear a logjam at DH/1B, and bring players that should be able to help next year.  I still think the best this team can realistically hope for to be a .500 team, but you have to get there before you become a legitimate competitor.  You do have to start somewhere, however.  Trading Dozier and Santana now is that start.

     

    I don't see trading Dozier and Santana as an all out forfeit of next seasons competitiveness.  Not doing anything, or very little would be.  I also feel that trading the Sano's or Buxton's would have a much larger public reaction to the negative regarding next year's competitiveness.

    Edited by wsnydes
    wsnydes

    wsnydes 15,971

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Keeping "long term familiar family faces", even though they are clearly at their peak trade value is how you end up with a guy like Glen Perkins.

    Teams like the Twins (i.e. teams not being the Yankees or Red Sox) need to maximize the trade value of its players far more often than they do.  Their inability to do so over and over again has resulted in this very situation.  I'm not sure how many people really get this.  That's how the A's were able to extend their run in the early 2000's and the Ray's a tad later.  

    Jham

    Jham 2,506

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

     

    Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

    On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but fewer seats as result. Dozier has an outside shot at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him... Edited by Jham
    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but but fewer seats too. Dozier has a sit at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him...

    I imagine his peak will be next year or the year after.  Can't discount his body type and how that will affect him down the road.

    troyhobbs

    troyhobbs 288

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Remember that if it weren't for the amazing record we had in May, which is in the first half when Sano wasn't even on the team, we wouldn't have been within shot. We were 41-37, and 4.5 games back in the division pre-Sano and 42-42 with Sano, ending up 12 games back in the division. We can't pretend we made some great surge after promoting him.

    They were tailspining before Sano was called up and then tanked at the end of the year again but he did provide a brief surge. More so than any other individual in the lineup anyway
    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,005

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh.

    So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

     

    Weren't we talking about Ervin Santana, who is only signed for 2 more years, and is in his 30s?

    troyhobbs

    troyhobbs 288

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

    On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but fewer seats as result. Dozier has an outside shot at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him...

    That's awfully presumptuous. How many HRS did Dozier hit when he was 23? Edited by troyhobbs
    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    They were tailspining before Sano was called up and then tanked at the end of the year again but he did provide a brief surge. More so than any other individual in the lineup anyway

    I thought they just went back to being mediocre in June like they were in April (and really most of the months other than May). Admittedly, my memory isn't what it used to be.

     

    Sano did play really well, though.

    troyhobbs

    troyhobbs 288

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I thought they just went back to being mediocre in June like they were in April (and really most of the months other than May). Admittedly, my memory isn't what it used to be.

     

    Sano did play really well, though.

    Ya I'm just going off memory too so could be throwing non factual things out there a little loosely. So long as a couple people buy it...
    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Hosken Bombo Disco 18,612

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted (edited)

    This team is going to lose 100+ games, and is giving major playing time in August to never will be's like Albers, Dean, O'Rourke, and Schaefer.

    I mean, if this team is not still far away, then I don't know that you'd ever say a Twins team was.

    Left-handed batters have 16 plate appearances against O'Rourke this season, with 0 hits. That would be something to build on going forward. I don't know if the "loogy" is still a thing or not, or ever was, but I sense that Molitor and Allen don't really believe in the value of that stuff even if it was.

     

    Edit that maybe those 16 PA were against Schafer types or there were some screaming line drives. I don't know. Just looked at the surface: 16 PA, 0-12, 2/5 BB/K

    Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Keeping Santana seems like a very TR move - let's keep him and hope 4 other starters exceed any past results and reach their absolute ceilings and the offense maintains or improves slightly we can be a .500 team competing for a wild card spot.

    I hope the Pohlad's didn't fire TR just to appease fans and just hire someone who will keep the same philosophy. 

    We are going to lose 100 games this year and have been dreadful for most of the past 6 years. We need to rebuild a SP rotation for 2018/2019 that can hopefully coincide with our top hitting prospects developing. Since prospects miss all the time, we need to fill that pipeline with 2-3 more SP's in the AA/AAA range.

     

    Actually, trading Santana seems like a TR move.  Trade him without doing anything to address the hole it causes.  Sign a washed-up player to replace Santana who is worth about 50 cents and act like it was a successful move when the player performs at a 55 cent level.

     

    Meanwhile the other teams will use that $1 player like Santana, who sure might perform at the 90 cent level instead, and beat the Twins with their 55 cent players every day of the week.

     

    If the Twins actually could solve a logjam at SP by trading Santana, then sure let him go.  But the Twins will still have Hughes, so they will be keeping the worse option.  Also, there are no young players ready to step in for Santana.

     

    It was mentioned by someone that the A's found success by trading older players for younger ones.  Sure, but they were SMART about it.  When the A's were good at this, they didn't create holes by their trades.  They had someone ready to step in.  They traded for others who could fulfill the role.  Who the heck are the Twins going to trade Santana for that would not be a net loss to the team?  The  team's holes are too cavernous for this trade to fix.  

     

    Edited by Doomtints
    Craig Arko

    Craig Arko 17,314

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Just thought I'd throw it out there, Twins have past Braves down here and is now, officially (for one day at least) the worst team in Mlb and if draft held today, will get the no. 1 draft pick. Yes, great news Let's celebrate.

    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Hosken Bombo Disco 18,612

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

     

    Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

    This is the view from 35,000 feet, and it is certainly valid. But looking at Dozier, I don't see any reason he shouldn't continue hitting home runs for years. Look at the Blue Jays guys. Donaldson, Batista, and Encarnacion are all older than Dozier and continue to mash year after year (Batista having a down year). If that is the "plateau" Dozier is entering... :)

     

    That said, trading Dozier for the right MLB starter is definitely a good debate. I just don't think you should. Santana is a different story. He is having one of his best seasons but he is the only thing we got until these younger guys start showing something. I don't know.

    Jham

    Jham 2,506

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Weren't we talking about Ervin Santana, who is only signed for 2 more years, and is in his 30s?

    Yeah Santana is a tough call. Unless we get a really nice return I keep him. We had a framework in place at the deadline. So we sort of know the market. Have to look up the deal. I mean, there's risks with golding or trading guys. Santana is a really close call. Hopefully it would be a win either way. We went young and left Kenny Rogers out and he made like 3 more all star games. We held on to Blackburn and he turned into a pumpkin. We traded Silva and that didn't work out either way. I'm thinking keep him since our pitching is so thin. Make your moves with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, our Buxton. I would also require controllable upside pitching in return, not necessarily a mlb ready pitcher. IE continue getting younger. I was against a tear down rebuild. And asked to keep the core a month ago. Now I think we probably saw the market for esan and doz and it didn't bring back the necessary return. I think we flip Sano or Buxton for legit pitching prospects, look for progress next year, and make a 2018 push. Santana makes more sense to deal after next season or at the next deadline.

    Jham

    Jham 2,506

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    That's awfully presumptuous. How many HRS did Dozier hit when he was 23?

    Which part...  Mostly I was wondering aloud.  I did presume to say Sano's swing was not going to change.  I've mostly never seen anyone retool their swing.  Dozier's actually 1, Bautista another.  I'm not even sure Dozier's swing changed as much as his approach.  I didn't follow Dozier's swing when he was hitting .300 with little power in the minors.  But you'd assume his swing changed. 

    I would guess the team has tried to get Sano to level out his swing so that he can catch up to high heat, cut k's, and generate more back spin, but from what I've heard, he's pretty reluctant.  

     

    On a complete aside, I wish I knew why lefties can get away with that swing, but righties tend to need more straight to the ball swings...

     

    Edited by Jham
    gheggs42

    gheggs42 39

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Yeah Santana is a tough call. Unless we get a really nice return I keep him. We had a framework in place at the deadline. So we sort of know the market. Have to look up the deal. I mean, there's risks with golding or trading guys. Santana is a really close call. Hopefully it would be a win either way. We went young and left Kenny Rogers out and he made like 3 more all star games. We held on to Blackburn and he turned into a pumpkin. We traded Silva and that didn't work out either way. I'm thinking keep him since our pitching is so thin. Make your moves with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, our Buxton. I would also require controllable upside pitching in return, not necessarily a mlb ready pitcher. IE continue getting younger. I was against a tear down rebuild. And asked to keep the core a month ago. Now I think we probably saw the market for esan and doz and it didn't bring back the necessary return. I think we flip Sano or Buxton for legit pitching prospects, look for progress next year, and make a 2018 push. Santana makes more sense to deal after next season or at the next deadline.

    I too think they will trade Sano because they have too many players that play the same positions, that combined with the reports of his work ethic and poor defense, etc. I think we see Plouffe return at 3rd, sigh, and Mauer/Park/Vargas at 1B and DH next year. I do not think they will give up on Buxton, yet. 

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Which part... Mostly I was wondering aloud. I did presume to say Sano's swing was not going to change. I've mostly never seen anyone retool their swing. Dozier's actually 1, Bautista another. I'm not even sure Dozier's swing changed as much as his approach. I didn't follow Dozier's swing when he was hitting .300 with little power in the minors. But you'd assume his swing changed.

     

    I would guess the team has tried to get Sano to level out his swing so that he can catch up to high heat, cut k's, and generate more back spin, but from what I've heard, he's pretty reluctant.

     

    On a complete aside, I wish I knew why lefties can get away with that swing, but righties tend to need more straight to the ball swings...

    Because barring a platoon, lefties get to face opposite handed pitching twice as often as righties do.

    Against opposite handed pitching you can be longer with your swing because you pick up the ball a lot earlier.

    magiklair

    magiklair 66

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    The twins desperately need pitching. If they could trade Santana for some high upside pitching prospects. That is something to look into. They may want to trade Dozier as his value will probably never be higher. He could probably fetch a nice return as well. It all depends on what you can get for Santana and Dozier…



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