Reviewing the Incredibly Early Returns in the Jorge Polanco Trade

Jorge Polanco went through many ups and downs during his Twins tenure, which likely made it challenging for the front office to trade a clubhouse favorite. However, the ownership group forced a $30 million payroll cut, and casualties are associated with that kind of drop. Minnesota needed room to make other moves, and there were younger and cheaper options behind Polanco at second base. The Twins traded him to Seattle for four players, including Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Darren Bowen. At this early juncture, the results have been mixed for both teams. 

Seattle’s Trade Return
Polanco’s start with the Mariners has been far below his career average. In 26 games, he has hit .163/.321/.267 (.588) with a 29.1 K% and a 17.5 BB%. His 79 OPS+ is 32 points below his career mark. His defense at second base has also taken a hit with a -2 OAA (Outs Above Average) and a -1 Fielding Run Value. Only seven qualified second basemen have a lower fWAR than Polanco. Early in his career, Polanco never missed time due to injury, but the Twins might have been ready to move on from Polanco because of his injury concerns over the last two seasons. He’s also entering his 30s this season so Father Time might be catching up to him. 

Minnesota’s Trade Return
Gabriel Gonzalez was the top piece acquired by the Twins, with MLB.com ranking him as baseball’s 79th-best prospect entering the season. Last season, he split time between Low-A and High-A where he hit a combined .298/.361/.476 (.837) with 23 doubles, four triples, and 18 home runs. Defensively, Gonzalez made most of his appearances in right field, with a handful of innings in left field. The Twins sent him back to High-A to begin the 2024 campaign, and his bat may be starting to warm up in the Midwest League. In his first eight games, he went 6-for-33 (.182 BA) with one extra-base hit. Over his last eight games, Gonzalez went 10-for-28 (.357 BA) with six doubles, one home run, and two stolen bases. Minnesota will continue to be patient with Gonzalez, but the early signs are heading in the right direction. 

Justin Topa will be the most useful piece to the 2024 Twins, but he has yet to appear with the club during the regular season. He started the season on the injured list due to left knee tendinitis. Earlier this week, he threw live batting practice and joined the Saints for a rehab assignment on Thursday. Last season, he made 75 appearances for Seattle with a 2.61 ERA and a 61-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings. The Mariners used him as a high-leverage arm last season, so the Twins will be able to ease him back into the bullpen mix because of the other relief options. 

Minnesota expected Anthony DeSclafani to begin the year as the team’s number-five starter. However, he will miss the entire 2024 season and some of the 2025 season after undergoing a flexor tendon surgery. Some fans blamed the Twins for acquiring another injured pitcher, but it shouldn’t be lumped in with those acquisitions because Minnesota had to take him on to make the trade work. There has been an apparent lack of depth in the Twins’ rotation this season, with Louie Varland struggling and the team turning his spot over to Simeon Woods Richardson. 

Seattle drafted Darren Bowen in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke. After signing last season, he pitched 55 2/3 innings and posted a 3.88 ERA with a 59-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota moved him from Low-A to High-A to begin the 2024 season, and a poor first appearance skews his numbers. He allowed five earned runs in his first start and didn’t make it out of the third inning. In his second start, he pitched five innings and allowed two earned runs on two hits with five strikeouts. The Twins will continue working with Bowen to see if he can develop into a big-league starter. (He joined Seth on Twins Spotlight days after the trade was completed.)

The Mariners have a $12 million option on Polanco for next season, so there is potential for him to provide value in 2025. However, it seems unlikely that option will be picked up with his early-season performance. The Twins will start gaining value on their side of the trade ledger with Topa set to join the bullpen, and Gonzalez and Bowen have the potential to provide future value. 

Did the Twins win this trade? What are your views of the trade's early returns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.