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    Projecting The 2020 Twins Line-Up


    Cody Christie

    As Seth, Jeremy and I put the final touches on the 2017 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, it's always fun to look to the future. There are plenty of changes that could be coming with the new baseball operations department. The future is still a little cloudy with the trades of Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana looming.

    The players on this list are subject to change. Minnesota could always add players on the free agent market or trade for other players that would be a better fit in the line-up. For now, here is a look at how the Twins could come together for the 2020 season.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

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    C: Mitch Garver

    The Twins recently signed Jason Castro to a three-year deal that runs through the 2019 season. Garver will be given every opportunity to evolve into a starter during the duration of the Castro contract. He ended this season at Rochester and hit .329/.381/.434 with six extra-base hits in 21 games. His defense and game management is praised by pitchers and coaches throughout the system.

    1B: Miguel Sano

    Joe Mauer's contract will expire at the end of the 2018 season. This could give the Twins the opportunity to move Miguel Sano to a less demanding defensive position. At first base, he can worry less about his defense and concentrate on hitting the ball over the fence. Other players might fit into the first base picture with Sano getting some DH at-bats.

    2B: Travis Blakenhorn

    When the Twins took Travis Blakenhorn with a third-round pick, there were high expectations for his future. This season he was 2.5 years younger than the competition in the Midwest League. He combined for an .850 OPS between two levels. He was originally drafted as a third baseman but he played more second base this season. It will take him time to adjust to a new position but he should be ready to go by 2020.

    3B: Jorge Polanco

    With Sano shifting off of third base, the Twins will need to find another option at third base. Polanco has made big league appearances in each of the last three seasons. Last year in 69 games, he hit .282/.332/.424 with 23 extra-base hits. His defensive time at shortstop left a little something to be desired as he committed 11 errors in 189 chances. Many believe he will eventually end up being shifted to a different position especially in the wake of Dozier being dealt. He could end up at second base or third base.

    SS: Nick Gordon

    Minnesota took Gordon with the fifth overall pick in 2014 with every intention of him being the team's future shortstop. There are still questions about his ability to stick at the position in the long-term. Offensively, he continues to show an advanced approach at the plate. Like the other infielders on this list, he might eventually need to move to another defensive spot. However, he has the best chance of staying at SS.

    RF: Eddie Rosario

    Out of all the players on this list, Rosario is one of the first that would move out of a starting spot. It seems likely for him to move into a fourth outfielder role. At this point, there weren't any other prospects in the Twins system that are knocking down the door in the outfield. If the Twins can get an outfielder from the Dodgers in a Dozier trade, he might be a better fit for the Twins in the long-term.

    CF: Byron Buxton

    Buxton finally seemed to put it all together during last September. He hit .287/.357/.653 with nine home runs, six doubles and two triples. His defense continues to be outstanding in center field. Many Twins fans hope Buxton has become an All-Star caliber player by 2020. He can help to turn the franchise around by becoming one of the best players in baseball.

    LF: Max Kepler

    Kepler showed some positive signs during his rookie campaign but he also left some room for improvement. In 24 games from June 10 to July 5, he hit .284/.347/.580 with six home runs and eight doubles. Throughout the rest of the season, his average dipped to .228 but he still got on base over 30% of the time. If he can continue to mature at the plate and make more consistent contact, he should be a solid MLB regular.

    DH: Daniel Palka

    During his first season in the Twins organization, Palka showed the prestigious power he'd shown through most of his professional career. He surpassed the 30 home run mark for the first time in his career and he had an OPS over .845 for the second consecutive season. He's played corner outfield spots and first base so he could split time at first base with Sano or take over a corner spot from Rosario.

    Change will be a common theme in the years to come. The next wave of prospects is getting closer to Target Field. Who do you think will fit into the Twins long-term plans? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    The numbers don’t fit your point. You’ve taken Rosario’s entire MILB career, which involves two levels Wade hasn’t reached. You’ve also supposed they’re both going to hit .250 in the majors when Rosario has had a better average throughout the minors and has hit .268 through two MLB seasons.

     

    LaMonte Wade’s A and A+ slashes

     

    .280/.410/.396/.806 (207 AB)

    .318/.386/.518/.904 (110 AB)

     

    Eddie Rosario’s:

     

    .296/.345/.490/.835 (392 AB)

    .325/.377/.498/.875 (237 AB)

     

    Those guys are pretty similar in OPS through the only levels they’ve both done so far. Therein lies the rub – Lamonte Wade has not reached the upper levels of the minors or the majors so it’s easier to get excited about him, we haven’t seen the warts. Rosario was pretty decent at keeping K numbers down in the low minors but starting in AA, those strikeouts started to creep higher and the walks stagnated. Wade will also likely start to walk less and strike out more. Will he always have a higher OBP than Rosario? Likely. But he’s at a deficit when it comes to power potential and average so that’s more of a wash.

     

    I think it’s also important to look at those ABs. Wade’s A+ numbers are based on 110 at-bats – that’s a very small sample size and also represents a big jump in slugging (lots of doubles) that may not be sustainable. He’d have to keep up the slugging this year to even keep pace with Rosario.

     

    It also doesn’t take age into effect. Rosario is only 27 months older than Wade but is entering his third significant major league year while Wade is still in high A ball. People forget this in the woes about the very real weaknesses of Rosario’s game but he’s still absurdly young. He’s not likely to walk more but it’s conceivable that he’ll learn to control the strike zone better and put more balls in play. He’ll also likely gain some strength so some 20+ HR years are also a very real possibility.

     

    That’s really another thing about this 2020 team – we look at it and think “Ugh, Rosario still starting?” but forget that this will be a Rosario in his prime age 28 year and who is still two years removed from free agency. That should be a wildly different Rosario than the one we love and are frustrated by today. Rosario may not be a perennial All-Star but he’s got a lot of room to grow into a really nice piece for the Twins.

     

    Wade may end up that too but to me he seems more like a nice 4th OF type.

    Very well stated! Who knew Dozier would hit 20+ home runs repeatedly? 42? Saying Ugh about having the same core hitters in 3 years is forgetting the growth potential of Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco. Some may not grow into that potential. Rosario could be a Cuddyer type player. Buxton could become Delmon Young. (Yes I vommitted in my mouth saying that) Wade might not make the majors but I am inclined to bet on him. We really just don't know though and no amount of analytics can 100% forecast any of it.

     

    Are Robbie Grossman and Kurt Suzuki?

     

    You're going to have to play who you have available to you. Seeing this spelled out, I'm thinking everyone's pitcher heavy Dozier trade proposals perhaps should shift to include at least one bat who may contribute here.

     

    I thought I would be more excited to see this projection, gosh almighty this team needs to restock.

     

    How can that be? We have been TERRIBLE for 5 of the last 6 years...the farm should be STACKED by now.....(btw, Sano, Polanco, and Kepler were all in the farm before that....).

     

    This is how I see it: 

     

    C Mitch Garver/ Rainis Silva
    1B Kennys Vargas / Lewin Diaz (after deadline)
    2B Jorge Polanco
    3B Nick Gordon
    SS Engelb Vielma/ Wander Javier (after deadline)
    LF Max Kepler or LaMonte Wade
    CF Byron Buxton
    RF Daniel Palka / Amaurys Minier (after deadline)
    DH Miguel Sano

     

    and Arraez, Blackenhorn, Rortvedt, Kirilloff knocking on the door.

     

    Come on Thrylos! We know who you watch.

     

    Where's Niko Goodrum?

     

    Very well stated! Who knew Dozier would hit 20+ home runs repeatedly? 42? Saying Ugh about having the same core hitters in 3 years is forgetting the growth potential of Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco. Some may not grow into that potential. Rosario could be a Cuddyer type player. Buxton could become Delmon Young. (Yes I vommitted in my mouth saying that) Wade might not make the majors but I am inclined to bet on him. We really just don't know though and no amount of analytics can 100% forecast any of it.

    I think this is a very valid point, however, I cannot believe Byron Buxton will ever be Delmon Young. (I understand it was basically  a suggestion that we be cautionary).

     

    I thought I would be more excited to see this projection, gosh almighty this team needs to restock.

    There's two recent top 10 prospects, a top 30ish prospect (Kepler), a top 50ish (Gordon), and a top 100 (Polanco) in that lineup. That doesn't seem too bad to me, especially with high upside guys like Lewin Diaz and Wander Javier who should be in the mix by 2020 as well.

     

    Polanco's arm isn't good enough for short but is for third base. Isn't third further away from first than shortstop.

     

    No, the throw from 3rd is often shorter as they play near the bag.  It is a straight throw with more time for your footwork as well.  If the short stop goes to his right, it will more likely be a longer throw.




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