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    Potential Silver Lining of an Apparently Bad Offseason for the Minnesota Twins

    Thiéres Rabelo

    By Thiéres Rabelo

    This offseason has been an overall frustrating experience for Twins fans so far. The impact-pitching search failed in theory and not many people feel like this team is a lot stronger than last year. However, this front office could be working on a different, smarter and unnoticed solution.

    Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    With the rather unaggressive approach Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this offseason, it might as well be a part of a much greater long-term project. What if the alternative here is soon becoming as dominant over a long stretch as the Dodgers have been?

    There are undeniable similarities between what the current Twins front office has been doing in the past three years and what Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has done, both with the Rays between 2008-14, and with Los Angeles in the last five seasons.

    One thing that makes Friedman a good comparison for “Falvine” is that he managed to find success without using all the Dodgers’ big market money. Here are the three main pillars from Friedman’s system and similarities to the current Twins’ approach.

    Player development

    Last year, the Dodgers secured their seventh consecutive NL West title. They didn't do it by signing big free agents. No team in baseball has a more successful core built by homegrown players.

    Here’s a list of some of the current players either drafted and developed by the club or signed internationally: Cody Bellinger, Cleyton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. At the same time, Los Angeles still has the third-best farm system in the league. They are constantly adding and properly developing talent.

    In the last postseason, the Dodgers had the highest number of homegrown talents, with 15 of their 25 players, worth 34.4 Wins Above Replacement, also the highest among the ten teams in the postseason. The second team on both of those categories are the Twins, with 13 homegrown players, worth 28.4 WAR (you can check the full list here).

    Trading for under the radar talent

    One other feature that Friedman has been bringing to the table for his teams is the ability to make very smart trades, supplying the farm. Here are some examples:

    • In 2012, while still with the Rays, he traded veterans Wade Davis and James Shields to Kansas City in exchange for prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.
    • In 2018, the Dodgers sent veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, Jeter Downs, and Josiah Gray. While Bailey was immediately released, Gray and Downs are currently the club's #4 and #5 prospects.

    Nate Palmer wrote a great article revisiting the great deals Minnesota made in 2018, which are just a few examples of how smart the Twins have been when making trades under this current regime. A lot of those prospects still need to materialize, but the Twins can either develop those players or use them as valuable trade pieces — like the Dodgers constantly do at the trade deadline.

    Finding good deals in free agency and waivers

    This last one may not be the best comparison now, since signing big free agents is not nearly a problem for the Dodgers. But while still in Tampa and with very limited money, Friedman managed to pick up some nice bargains at free agency, like Casey Kotchman in 2011, Jeff Keppinger and Fernando Rodney in 2012, and James Loney in 2013, all of who were one-year deals worth $2 million or less.

    Falvey and Levine have done the same in Minnesota. While there haven't been big splashes yet, they have landed great, team-friendly deals. Most noticeably, Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Sergio Romo, which proved very successful.

    Even though the 2018 season didn’t pan out very well, they also had a very productive offseason, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke and Addison Reed. Those players had good track records and were very sensible signings at the time.

    Recently, Matthew Taylor showed us how dangerous it can be to bet your future to seek a World Series title, using the Kansas City Royals example. Perhaps signing Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one-year deals will not put the Twins closer to a ring this year, but I’m fine with that if it will bring the Twins closer to a dominance similar to the one the Dodgers have in the west.

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    Brazilian journalist, a Twins fan since 2009, and writing about them since 2016.

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    Featured Comments

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Eh, I can’t twist this offseason into a positive. The Twins are coming off a 101 win season, yet my excitement level is barely higher than the dark years of the past decade.

    That’s pretty dismal.

     

    If it makes you feel any better … The only playoff team from last year that improved significantly was the Yankees. It would not be unreasonable to say MN had the 2nd best off-season so far of last year’s playoff teams.

     

    Houston lost Cole and has done nothing else.

     

    Washington lost Rendon and added players that would be considered dumpster dives with perhaps the exception of Will Harris (3/24)

     

    Dodgers lost Ryu / Hill and added Treinen.

     

    Brewers lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz and added Garcia

     

    Tampa lost Garcia  / D’Arnaud and added nobody

     

    Oakland lost Roark / Bailey

     

    You could make a case Atlanta had a better off-season. The lost Kuechel / Teheran and replaced them with Hamels and Will Smith.

     

    Even everyone’s favorite STL has added a total of two one year deals for a total of $8M. Obviously, STL was not a playoff team but generally respected. Perhaps their unwillingness to participate suggests something.

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If it makes you feel any better … The only playoff team from last year that improved significantly was the Yankees. It would not be unreasonable to say MN had the 2nd best off-season so far of last year’s playoff teams.

     

    Houston lost Cole and has done nothing else.

     

    Washington lost Rendon and added players that would be considered dumpster dives with perhaps the exception of Will Harris (3/24)

     

    Dodgers lost Ryu / Hill and added Treinen.

     

    Brewers lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz and added Garcia

     

    Tampa lost Garcia / D’Arnaud and added nobody

     

    Oakland lost Roark / Bailey

     

    You could make a case Atlanta had a better off-season. The lost Kuechel / Teheran and replaced them with Hamels and Will Smith.

     

    Even everyone’s favorite STL has added a total of two one year deals for a total of $8M. Obviously, STL was not a playoff team but generally respected. Perhaps their unwillingness to participate suggests something.

    Fair, but a couple of points.

     

    1) We're fans of the Twins, not those teams.

     

    2) How many of the other playoff teams were swept 3-0 in the first rounds? It's not unfair if some have the opinion that we were starting from a place of needing more reinforcements than those teams were.

     

    At this point it looks like we're going to have to hope that the reinforcement comes from within.

    It's possible, but not guaranteed, so we'll see.

     

    I'm disappointed, but at the same time still willing to give this FO the benefit of the doubt, for now. Another sweep in the first round will start to chip away at that.

    blindeke

    blindeke 1,400

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The problem is that they should be spending $20-30M more this year than they are (so far). If Falvey and Levine cannot figure out a way to spend that money and improve the team, that is a huge disappointment.

    howeda7

    howeda7 3,705

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    If it makes you feel any better … The only playoff team from last year that improved significantly was the Yankees. It would not be unreasonable to say MN had the 2nd best off-season so far of last year’s playoff teams.

     

    Houston lost Cole and has done nothing else.

     

    Washington lost Rendon and added players that would be considered dumpster dives with perhaps the exception of Will Harris (3/24)

     

    Dodgers lost Ryu / Hill and added Treinen.

     

    Brewers lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz and added Garcia

     

    Tampa lost Garcia  / D’Arnaud and added nobody

     

    Oakland lost Roark / Bailey

     

    You could make a case Atlanta had a better off-season. The lost Kuechel / Teheran and replaced them with Hamels and Will Smith.

     

    Even everyone’s favorite STL has added a total of two one year deals for a total of $8M. Obviously, STL was not a playoff team but generally respected. Perhaps their unwillingness to participate suggests something.

    That's not comforting. It's quite aggravating. It only reiterates that indeed there is a huge window open now. Both in the AL Central and the AL overall. Yes, we would still be underdogs to the Yankees, even with another starter. But let's give ourselves a fighting chance to avoid them in the 1st round and at least have a shot if we do face them.

    MABB1959

    MABB1959 1,010

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    It would be nice to get to the ALDS or even play in a WS win or not.  These one and out with not wins is depressing.  IMO we will never get there.  Possible chance next year if Cruz can hold up and they get an Ace.  After next year our major players will start Free Agency and we will start another rebuild.  

    gagu

    gagu 134

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    While I at least think that I understand and sympathize with both ends of the basic argument, I'm leaning towards patience. Saying that the window is open now for a World Series run on one hand while on the other hand bemoaning the fact that the existing team can't win a playoff game much less a series seems problematic. If somehow a Scherzer had fallen in our lap last season, would we have been the favorite to win it all? How many pieces will it take to seriously compete on paper with powerhouses in Houston and NY? IMO, the Twins could theoretically drain the farm for prime ready talent and then only be among the top contenders.

    As someone who suffered through long, lean seasons from '71 through '83, and again from '93 through '00, I greatly appreciate the nine-year run from '01 through '10 with six division titles and only one series win. I missed a lot of details and excitement during that time trying to adjust to life in South America. Mostly just box scores back then. 

    Everyone has their own degree of hopes and expectations for their sports teams. My hopes are always high with less expectations for championships. KC won a WS, but I don't envy them, especially over the last 20 years. I'll take the eight post-season appearances and brighter future. KC was also working in a different window. The level of competition among the top teams was different in 2015. They had to face McHugh, Price, Estrada, and Harvey twice each. 2019 featured Cole, Verlander, Greinke, Strasburg, and Scherzer on two teams. Put the '19 or '20 Twins in the '15 window and I'd be all on board in giving up top prospects or breaking the bank for an ace level pitcher. 

    Sorry for rambling on in such a scattered way. I see it as a very complicated argument with no easy answers either way. This is how I view it and it works for me.

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    While I at least think that I understand and sympathize with both ends of the basic argument, I'm leaning towards patience. Saying that the window is open now for a World Series run on one hand while on the other hand bemoaning the fact that the existing team can't win a playoff game much less a series seems problematic. If somehow a Scherzer had fallen in our lap last season, would we have been the favorite to win it all? How many pieces will it take to seriously compete on paper with powerhouses in Houston and NY? IMO, the Twins could theoretically drain the farm for prime ready talent and then only be among the top contenders.

    As someone who suffered through long, lean seasons from '71 through '83, and again from '93 through '00, I greatly appreciate the nine-year run from '01 through '10 with six division titles and only one series win. I missed a lot of details and excitement during that time trying to adjust to life in South America. Mostly just box scores back then.

    Everyone has their own degree of hopes and expectations for their sports teams. My hopes are always high with less expectations for championships. KC won a WS, but I don't envy them, especially over the last 20 years. I'll take the eight post-season appearances and brighter future. KC was also working in a different window. The level of competition among the top teams was different in 2015. They had to face McHugh, Price, Estrada, and Harvey twice each. 2019 featured Cole, Verlander, Greinke, Strasburg, and Scherzer on two teams. Put the '19 or '20 Twins in the '15 window and I'd be all on board in giving up top prospects or breaking the bank for an ace level pitcher.

    Sorry for rambling on in such a scattered way. I see it as a very complicated argument with no easy answers either way. This is how I view it and it works for me.

    That's fair, but everyone is different.

    For me, the 2000's are barely a footnote in Twins history. 1991 is what I'll remember (I was a tad young for '87).



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