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    One Guy's Plan


    Seth Stohs

    The Twins are now 10-27. Thirty-seven games into the season, they are 17 games under .500 and 13.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. In fact, they are 6.5 games out of fourth place in the division already.

    That's not to say it's completely out of the realm of possibility that the Twins could turn things around and find themselves competing for a playoff spot. It's not, but it pretty much is.

    In my opinion, it's not time to give up on the season, but it is absolutely time to start thinking about 2017. And it's not even Memorial Day yet.

    So below, I will discuss one thing that I would do if I were in charge (which would be a scary thing, and I"m sure there are some people at 1 Twins Way in Minneapolis who will read that and start chuckling).

    NOTE: Let me also note that I won't even pretend to think that I know 1.) what's best for the individuals (these are just opinions) or 2.) more than those in the Twins front office or player development departments. These are just the thoughts in my head in recent days/weeks as it relates to what is best for the organization short-term and long-term.

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    As you know, I am the "Prospect Guy." From the moment a player is drafted or signed to the Minnesota Twins organization, I try to learn as much about that player as I can and follow their Twins careers. Why? I enjoy the journey. There is no specific, exact science to prospect development. Some guys sign at 17 and are in the big leagues at 20. Some guys sign at 22 and are in the big leagues for a cup of coffee at 27. Some guys sign at 16 and become stars at 22. Some guys sign at 16 and get a shot when they turn 26. And the unfortunate story for most is that they don't make it.

    No two stories are identical, and that's what makes it fun to follow. I think of myself as a guy who likes to give credit where credit is due, where credit is earned. Often, minor leaguers go through their time without getting noticed, so when they do well, I find it important that they do get recognized.

    I would love to see them all get to the big leagues, and we can all agree that we want them to do well when they get there. We don't want them held back in the minors though either.

    With that as the background, here is a plan that I might try to implement if I were in charge.

    Send the prospects down.

    What? Seth, you want the prospects sent down??

    Listen, I want what's best for the Twins, and sometimes what is best for the Twins is doing what is best for the individual players. We want our favorite Twins prospects to fly through the system. A guy has a dominant month in Ft. Myers... push him up to Chattanooga. A guy has a dominant month in Chattanooga... push him up to Rochester, or why not even the Twins? They have "nothing left to prove, right?"

    That's not necessarily the case. Listen, I can't tell you why Stephen Gonsalves is still in Ft. Myers. Maybe it's so that he can get a little bit more time working on a new pitch at a level where he can still experience success. Maybe there's an edict for him to control his walk rate?

    Why was there hesitance to bring JO Berrios up to start the season? Was it service time? The Twins haven't been a team to play that game before. Was it that he was being blocked? Not really. Was it because he was completely lacking control and command in spring training? Absolutely. He struggled badly throughout spring training. In his first two Red Wings starts this year, he walked seven and hit two more in ten innings. He had a terrific start in his third game, and he was promoted right after that.

    Right now, I would send down Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios and even Eddie Rosario.

    The last month has likely been a tremendous learning experience for Berrios. He has a tremendous maturity about him and a will to continually improve and get better. Could he continue to start for the Twins and take some lumps? Sure, and I believe that he has the type of make up that he could handle the adversity.

    Or, he could go to AAA and spend the next two months really working on his mechanics and at a level where he can still experience great success.

    It's the same thing with Byron Buxton. He has great makeup and maturity, and he struggled in the big leagues. But what is clearly best for him is spending time in AAA for a while, working on those mechanics, playing every day and experiencing success.

    There is something to be said about getting that big league service time, finding out how good it is, discovering what areas of your game you still need to address, working on those things at AAA, improving and then coming back ready.

    Jorge Polanco fits more into the Max Kepler category. These guys just need to play and there isn't currently a spot for them in the big leagues. Neither of them has enough AAA time to say that they have to be up. Polanco needs innings at all three infield positions so that he can try to improve the defense. Kepler needs time at all three outfield positions. Both can hit, but they both need to play every day.

    In AAA, I'd like to see an outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler with Adam Brett Walker getting most DH days and some occasional time in the corner outfield spots. Play that group pretty much every day until August 1st. I would also play Jorge Polanco around the infield every day. Two games a week at all three positions.

    Have Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer in the Red Wings starting rotation and encourage them to work on throwing strikes. They both have electric stuff and need to trust it.

    The other thing is that the Red Wings could win a lot of games with that group, and frankly, winning and learning how to win is part of the development process. At least it should be. Get them back in the right frame of mind.

    Now, at the big league level, you've still got some learning going on. Oswaldo Arcia can play every day, and now at 25, he's got a two-month stint to see what happens. Play Danny Santana every day, but do so all over the field - all three outfield spots and all three infield positions. See what you've got. Continue to play Miguel Sano in right field, but get him a weekly start at third base as well. Put Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly into more high leverage situations. See what you've got. Let Pat Dean be the swing man. See what he can offer now and in the future.

    However, play Trevor Plouffe every day. Play Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer every day. Move Byung Ho Park up in the lineup to get him a few extra plate appearances each month. Play Eduardo Escobar every day when he gets back to find out more if he can be an every-day player. Keep Eduardo Nunez's bat in the lineup most days, somehow. Play Kurt Suzuki in a role that you think will make him most valuable.

    Play Darin Mastroianni in centerfield to help the pitchers out. Place Glen Perkins on the 60-day DL and call up James Beresford to be the utility infielder and allow Jorge Polanco to play every day.

    Keep starting Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco. Keep throwing Kevin Jepsen into late innings.

    Hope they turn things around and maybe they can be traded in July. Can they get anything for those pitchers, maybe Trevor Plouffe or even Brian Dozier? Will a team in contention be looking for a utility player or a backup catcher and consider Eduardo Nunez or Kurt Suzuki as options? Maybe Milwaukee will want to acquire Oswaldo Arcia on the same day they call up Orlando Arcia.

    And on August 1st, turn things over to the young guys. Turn it over, almost completely. At that time, bring back Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, Polanco. Move Sano back to third base. Make Max Kepler the right fielder. Call up JT Chargois.

    The plan since Terry Ryan took over was to take the long approach through scouting and player development. Generally speaking, it is the proper way to do it. Look at teams that win. They have a core of players that come up and win. Those great Yankees teams had a core of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams. Guys they drafted/signed and developed and the guys that led the way through all those inning seasons. Look at most playoff teams. They have built a core and then supplement.

    It's just about time for the new Twins core to start getting time. The next "great" Twins team will be led by the likes of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and Max Kepler. Very soon, it's time to turn things over to them.

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    We all know that teams make deals in July.  But what's the likely return for mediocre veterans?  Find me a guy (and contract) in the class of Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, etc. who fetched a meaningful return in July.

     

    And even if they fetch something modest -- how much does that modest return have to do with their playing time in June & July?  The above names are all very much veteran known quantities -- we can't exactly predict their performance, but we know the range pretty well.  And they're mostly controlled for multiple years, so short-term streaks are much less meaningful to their July trade value.

     

    Put simply: guys like Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, etc. aren't going to fetch a top 100 prospect in July, and they're not going to fetch a meaningfully different class of prospect due to their playing time and likely performance range in the 2 months leading up to the deadline either.  Similarly, especially for those starting pitchers, teams aren't going to pick up 100% of their salary in July, and they're not going to pick up a meaningfully larger portion of their salary due to their playing time in the 2 months leading up to the leading either.

    Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

     

    Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

    Even teams trading for "hot" players don't want guys with 2-3 guaranteed big money seasons remaining.  Our three veteran SP are more likely to be August waiver trades than have LOTS of demand in July.

     

    Although I also think you are overrating the value of hotness.  Plouffe doesn't have a long-term guaranteed deal, but he is 30 years old, has over 2600 MLB PA, and has been largely the same hitter throughout.  No one is going to pay "a lot more" based on his next two months of performance (~200 PA).

     

    And of course, having 20 HR in late July will hardly be an indication that these guys are out-performing their career numbers anyway.  Dozier or Plouffe might have 20 HR at that point with no more than a 110 OPS+, within their established range of performance.

     

    And the chance that these players will turn in such a superlative performance over the next 2 months (130 OPS+/ERA+) is probably so slim that it's not worth shutting out most of your young players until August to find out.

    Edited by spycake

    That's probably part of my point. Instead of continuing to call up Polanco and having him play one out of every five games, just leave him down so that he can play every single day at AAA. Call up Beresford and let him play a couple times a week instead. Polanco has never spent more than a few weeks straight at AAA.  Same with Buxton.

     

    Seth, what have you seen from Polanco that makes you believe he shouldn't be playing full time on the MLB team? And, is this his last option year?

     

    Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

    And as always, I welcome past examples of players with similar contract/performance getting dealt in July. I think you will find your theories about demand and return being a lot higher for these guys to be untrue in reality.

     

    I think a lot less trades happen than people think......and has any team traded 3-5 players mid year? I doubt it.

    Good point!  Seth's plan seems to be, play all the veterans to prepare for a July trade -- but not is their trade value questionable, it seems particularly unlikely that more than 1 or 2 of them could actually be dealt.  (Even if we wanted to deal more, doing so would signal fire sale and probably lower our leverage quite drastically.)

     

    The better plan is probably betting now on which vets you think can be dealt and need to play in the meantime, and then still working young players in around them.  For all I know, maybe the Twins think they are doing that, but to me it seems they are doing a pretty poor job so far.

    Edited by spycake

     

    Even teams trading for "hot" players don't want guys with 2-3 guaranteed big money seasons remaining.  Our three veteran SP are more likely to be August waiver trades than have LOTS of demand in July.

     

    Although I also think you are overrating the value of hotness.  Plouffe doesn't have a long-term guaranteed deal, but he is 30 years old, has over 2600 MLB PA, and has been largely the same hitter throughout.  No one is going to pay "a lot more" based on his next two months of performance (~200 PA).

     

    And of course, having 20 HR in late July will hardly be an indication that these guys are out-performing their career numbers anyway.  Dozier or Plouffe might have 20 HR at that point with no more than a 110 OPS+, within their established range of performance.

     

    And the chance that these players will turn in such a superlative performance over the next 2 months (130 OPS+/ERA+) is probably so slim that it's not worth shutting out most of your young players until August to find out.

     

    Its still supply and demand -- mainly demand in June/July as teams realize they could use some help at a position and they don't have any internal options, they've tried out their top minor league talent in April/May, they think they that they need to make a trade - hence more demand later in the summer.  More demand means you can play one team against the other.  The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

     

    Teams also get a little more desperate, they haven't been to the playoffs in awhile or other teams in their division make a trade to improve, they get more desperate - more demand.  And once a few trades get made, the supply goes down, less players available at that position.

     

    Supply and demand.

     

    Its still supply and demand -- mainly demand in June/July as teams realize they could use some help at a position and they don't have any internal options, they've tried out their top minor league talent in April/May, they think they that they need to make a trade - hence more demand later in the summer.  More demand means you can play one team against the other.  The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

     

    Teams also get a little more desperate, they haven't been to the playoffs in awhile or other teams in their division make a trade to improve, they get more desperate - more demand.  And once a few trades get made, the supply goes down, less players available at that position.

     

    Supply and demand.

    I understand the theory of supply and demand.

     

    How does any of that apply to most of the Twins veteran trade candidates, who are guaranteed money well beyond 2016?  Teams don't trade for multiple expensive years of average-ish players in July.  Again, if you have any historical examples that say otherwise, please share, but textbook definitions of supply and demand don't say much about the real-world example of Twins players/contracts that we are discussing.

     

     

    The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

     

    Isn't this the most salient point?  The magnitude of the theoretical increase, balanced against costs of salary and less playing time for prospect, is far more important than the simple academic question of whether it is higher in absolute terms.  Maybe Plouffe could net an organization's #15 prospect on July 31st, while he could only net a #20-25 today.  But it will cost the Twins an additional ~$2.5 mil in salary to keep Plouffe until July 31st, and it will cost them 2 months MLB playing time for their own #6 prospect (Polanco) who is out of options next spring.  (Not to mention that there is risk in market factors not improving by July 31st, if more 3B solutions emerge around the league than new 3B problems develop, or if Plouffe tails off or gets injured -- a better return, or even any return, on July 31st is likely but not guaranteed.)

     

    It's much more complicated than you or Seth are suggesting.

    Edited by spycake

     

    I understand the theory of supply and demand.

     

    How does any of that apply to most of the Twins veteran trade candidates, who are guaranteed money well beyond 2016?  Teams don't trade for multiple expensive years of average-ish players in July.  Again, if you have any historical examples that say otherwise, please share, but textbook definitions of supply and demand don't say much about the real-world example of Twins players/contracts that we are discussing.

     

     

     

    Isn't this the most salient point?  The magnitude of the theoretical increase, balanced against costs of salary and less playing time for prospect, is far more important than the simple academic question of whether it is higher in absolute terms.  Maybe Plouffe could net an organization's #15 prospect on July 31st, while he could only net a #20-25 today.  But it will cost the Twins an additional ~$2.5 mil in salary to keep Plouffe until July 31st, and it will cost them 2 months MLB playing time for their own #6 prospect (Polanco) who is out of options next spring.  (Not to mention that there is risk in market factors not improving by July 31st, if more 3B solutions emerge around the league than new 3B problems develop, or if Plouffe tails off or gets injured -- a better return, or even any return, on July 31st is likely but not guaranteed.)

     

    It's much more complicated than you or Seth are suggesting.

    Does anybody thats not a baseball GM really know what Plouffe is worth now or in July??

     

    Only time will tell. 

     

    I think you're overthinking it but -- you win.

     

    Does anybody thats not a baseball GM really know what Plouffe is worth now or in July??

     

    Only time will tell. 

     

    I think you're overthinking it but -- you win.

    It was just an example.

     

    I think Seth's plan of "play all the vets, hope to trade them in July, and then call up youngsters in August" is rather under-thinking it, that's all.

     

    It doesn't take a lot of thinking to know these vets and their contracts aren't going to bring much if anything in July -- just look at past trade deadline results.  So why let that be such a big part of the equation?

    I haven't read the whole thread yet, but I essentially agree with Seth. The purpose of this season should now be to optimize the development of each prospect. Do what is best for each individual. Some are best off in AA or below, some in AAA and some in the majors. Have them play the position that is projected for them in the future. (Put Sano at 3B, for example.) The W-L record of the teams in the organization is of little to no importance, other than making the minor league playoffs provides more games for the players to get in their work.

    Edited by spinowner

    I haven't read the whole thread yet, but I essentially agree with Seth. The purpose of this season should now be to optimize the development of each prospect. Do what is best for each individual. Some are best off in AA or below, some in AAA and some in the majors. Have them play the position that is projected for them in the future. (Put Sano at 3B, for example.) The W-L record of the teams in the organization is of little to no importance, other than making the minor league playoffs provides more games for the players to get in their work.

    But they were in an August 1 timeframe in order to maximize trade value of 30+ year olds who have not been good in awhile

    Buxton: in AAA you might get an at bat against a mlb caliber player 2-3 times a series. So if you consider his numbers mashing? who is he mashing against, the MLB caliber pitcher or the plethora of flotsam that graces many MILB pitching staffs.

     

    Remember, Buxton was striking out close to 50% of the time when with the Twins this season. Bring him up again this early and all you might get is getting much closer to realizing Buxton's label which permeates his aura right now and that is unfortunately 'BUST'.




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