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    How the Twins and Mets Match Up on a Pete Alonso Trade

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    The MLB trade deadline is eight weeks away, and according to both the current and projected standings, the Twins are borderline to make the playoffs. Can Pete Alonso power Minnesota to a second-half surge?

    Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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    The New York Mets have struggled this season, sitting well below .500 despite baseball’s highest payroll. It seems likely that the club will shed salaries by the trade deadline, and Pete Alonso is a logical trade candidate. He is being paid $20.5 million in his last year of arbitration eligibility, and then he'll become a free agent, so he will be a rental piece for an acquiring team. There are extra layers to acquiring Alonso, especially for a team like the Twins. So, what will it cost, and can the Twins find a way to add one of baseball’s biggest sluggers?

    What will it cost to acquire Pete Alonso?
    Other teams (besides the Twins) will be interested in adding Alonso for a potential playoff run, so the acquiring team must offer the right prospect package. Would the Twins offer one of their top five prospects to acquire him? Twins Daily’s top prospects include Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa, and Gabriel Gonzalez. From the team perspective, Jenkins and Lee are likely untouchable, while Rodriguez and Festa have seen their stock rise during the 2024 campaign. Gonzalez or another top-10 pitching prospect like Marco Raya might be enough to headline a package. There would likely need to be other players involved from outside the team’s top prospects, though.

    The Mets can also leverage the qualifying offer process in any deal for Alonso. If New York keeps Alonso, they will assuredly extend him the qualifying offer, which comes with draft pick compensation if a player signs with another team. A compensation-round pick is valuable, including more money added to a team’s draft pool. A team trading for Alonso must provide New York something worth more than the potential draft pick they would acquire if he leaves. It’s also worth noting that an acquiring team can’t extend a qualifying offer to Alonso, because of the rules in place as part of the collective bargaining agreement.

    What are other trade considerations?
    New York is paying Alonso over $20 million this season, so he will still be due close to $7 million for the season’s final two months. Minnesota cut payroll this winter because of the uncertainty surrounding their television rights. There might not be room to add Alonso’s contract, absent the Mets sending some money to pay down the end of the deal. To do this, the Twins might have to send more value in prospects to make up the difference. However, there is another way to make the money work. 

    To balance the money, the Twins could include a veteran player with a higher salary. Minnesota shopped their veterans this winter, and Jorge Polanco was the only player traded. Christian Vázquez would be due a little over $3 million for the season’s last two months, plus the $10 million remaining on his contract for next season. Vázquez’s offensive performance has dipped in 2024, but he continues to provide strong defense, with a Fielding Run Value and framing in the 82nd percentile or higher. Perhaps New York would be interested in adding catching depth to offset Alonso’s contract; they did recently DFA catcher Omar Narváez. However, the Twins would still need to include multiple prospects to make a competitive offer.

    How does Alonso fit with the Twins?
    Alonso has seen a slight drop in his home run production this season, after averaging more than 40 home runs in the five full seasons played since he came to the big leagues in 2019. He’s been an All-Star the last two seasons, including finishing in the top eight for the NL MVP in 2022. In 58 games this season, he is hitting .239/.315/.477, with a 130 OPS+. Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ primary first baseman this season, posting a 92 OPS+ in 54 games. However, his bat has improved recently, with an .841 OPS since Apr. 25.

    One of Minnesota’s most significant weaknesses this season has been the struggles of the team’s left-handed bats. Alonso is a right-handed hitter with almost identical splits against lefties (.867 OPS) and righties (.862 OPS) for his career. His OPS has dropped to .778 this season versus right-handed pitchers, but it’s 33 points higher against right-handed starters. He’s an impact bat who can make a difference for the stretch run.

    Home runs help to win games in October, but Alonso has been limited to three playoff games with the Mets. New York lost the Wild Card Series to San Diego in 2022, but the club won the middle game when Alonso hit a homer. Minnesota needs to be creative at the upcoming trade deadline, and adding Alonso can bolster the lineup. However, he might be one of the biggest bats moved this year, and plenty of teams will be interested in his services.

    Should the Twins try to add Alonso? What should the team be willing to give up? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

    I doubt the twins make a big move at the deadline, and definitely not for a rental. We're not winning a world series this year and they know it. I'd say give Miranda the bulk of the starts at 1st base as an audition for the starting role next season. Dump Margot, Farmer and Santana and call up the guys in the minors playing well like Keirsey, ERod dnd maybe Festa. Then next off-season look to pick up a front end starter, maybe a bullpen piece and some legit backups and we might have a chance.

    The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

    The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,014

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

    The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

    What level prospects will you give up to get an elite SP and Alonso? You're losing 3-4 top 15 guys on the odds those two make this a great team, for half a year?

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    What level prospects will you give up to get an elite SP and Alonso? You're losing 3-4 top 15 guys on the odds those two make this a great team, for half a year?

    I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject.

    Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,605

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    I believe JD Martinez can only DH at this point so he'd lock out Miranda, Larnach, and Buxton and Lewis on their rest days.  That doesn't even include lost DH at-bats for Jeffers.

    I don't care. He's a better bat than Miranda, Larnach or Buxton. They can sit the bench on their rest day.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,014

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject.

    Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).

    Ah, I misunderstood your post. 

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Since I'm not going to pay money for baseballtradevalues, I'll go ahead and estimate that one:
    Alonso = July30+ = 1.0 WAR = $8MM, assuming the Mets eat Alonso's salary.
    Gonzalez is probably enough to get Alonso IMHO.

    Somebody might be willing to overpay for him, though. Personally, I expect Wallner/Larnach to be far better than Alonso at this point.

    Far better? He's at a 128 OPS+ and 125 wRC+ currently (good for 36th and 43rd amongst qualified hitters), and has a career 136 OPS+ and 134 wRC+. What are you defining as far better? 140+ OPS+ or wRC+? There were 10 qualified hitters in all of baseball last year with a 140 or better wRC+. 29 with a 125 (Alonso's current number) or better. 10 and 32 hitters for OPS+ of 140 or 125. Pete Alonso was 33rd in baseball in 2023 in OPS+ and 41st for wRC+. And you think Wallner/Larnach will be far better than that? I hope you're right. It'd be great to have a borderline MVP candidate or 2 on the roster. Personally, I don't think either of those guys are top 30 hitters in baseball.

    Finlander

    Finlander 251

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    $7M for two months of Alonso makes no sense for a team that chose Margot over better OF backup candidates due to financial constraints.

    Tampa Bay has difficulties this season, and they are constantly operating under very tight budgetary conditions. I'd prefer to see the Twins target someone like Yandy Diaz, who has a great bat and is quickly pricing himself out of reach of TB. The Rays have dropped in the standings with a very difficult path to the playoffs this year. They have IF prospects that they'll need to clear space for (Caminero, Aranda, Mead, Isaac), so they may shop Diaz and/or Paredes. Twins should have TB on speed dial. A deal for a player like Diaz would be more worth parting with a high prospect or two than Alonso.

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    Far better? He's at a 128 OPS+ and 125 wRC+ currently (good for 36th and 43rd amongst qualified hitters), and has a career 136 OPS+ and 134 wRC+. What are you defining as far better? 140+ OPS+ or wRC+? There were 10 qualified hitters in all of baseball last year with a 140 or better wRC+. 29 with a 125 (Alonso's current number) or better. 10 and 32 hitters for OPS+ of 140 or 125. Pete Alonso was 33rd in baseball in 2023 in OPS+ and 41st for wRC+. And you think Wallner/Larnach will be far better than that? I hope you're right. It'd be great to have a borderline MVP candidate or 2 on the roster. Personally, I don't think either of those guys are top 30 hitters in baseball.

    Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just now, chpettit19 said:

    Dang, I hope you're right. That would be very nice.

    Yeah, I'm very high on Wallner, and I thought he was a sure fire scrub before he learned how to take walk one day a couple years ago, lol. I believe it'll depend on his mental state, but the way he covered the plate last year, how he wasn't weak against really any pitches and how much power he showed left me highly impressed. I found he was pretty similar at the plate to Bryce Harper in a lot of ways.

    Wallner's weak inside against pitches, but he crowds the plate so hard it's almost a given.

    If he turns into a dud, I'll be surprised and highly disappointed.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Just now, bean5302 said:

    Yeah, I'm very high on Wallner, and I thought he was a sure fire scrub before he learned how to take walk one day a couple years ago, lol. I believe it'll depend on his mental state, but the way he covered the plate last year, how he wasn't weak against really any pitches and how much power he showed left me highly impressed. I found he was pretty similar at the plate to Bryce Harper in a lot of ways.

    Wallner's weak inside against pitches, but he crowds the plate so hard it's almost a given.

    If he turns into a dud, I'll be surprised and highly disappointed.

    I think there's a lot of room between dud and borderline MVP. I think he falls in there. Streaky power hitter who gets sliced up by teams that can attack his weaknesses (mostly inside mixed with soft away like Houston shredded him with in the postseason), but punishes teams that can't consistently beat him in.

    If he turns into a 145 OPS+ hitter I'll be surprised and thrilled. Not saying it's impossible, but don't think it's likely. I'd be happy with a 120 OPS+ for him with a spike season here and there where he gets to 135+.

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 6/5/2024 at 10:33 AM, bean5302 said:

    The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

    The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

    You think 1 SP puts them on the level of the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies?  I don't think one SP even puts them on the level of Cleveland.  We need to accumulate talent to get over the hump.  Throwing away 6 year assets for 1/2 year assets in support of a mediocre team is not the way to get over the hump.

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

    You think 1 SP puts them on the level of the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies?  I don't think one SP even puts them on the level of Cleveland.  We need to accumulate talent to get over the hump.  Throwing away 6 year assets for 1/2 year assets in support of a mediocre team is not the way to get over the hump.

    You're right. An SP1 wouldn't make the Twins substantially worse as a team so they'd still be better than the extreme luck fueled Guardians. As far as on par with the best teams in baseball, probably not, but the 1987 Twins had the 9th best record in baseball. They were an average team with only a couple real good pieces. You have to make the playoffs before you can win playoff games.

    Now, what would an SP1 cost? That depends on team control, contact AAV and how they're pitching up to the deadline point.

    If Blake Snell were to rebound and have a great 5-8 start history before the deadline while being healthy, what would he cost? Probably not a ton. He'd be viewed as a potential rental with a big negative in the player option.

    If the Diamondbacks are out of it, Zac Gallen would require a lot more prospect capital. He's cheap this year and he'll be under market value next year. Probably 1 top 3 prospect, plus another 1 of our top 5s, plus 2 more of our top 10s.

    But, Falvey will do this. His job is on the line as his contract is over this year, and Joe Pohlad made it clear the team's expectations have shifted from making the playoffs/winning the division to advancing in the playoffs.

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 78,972

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    On 6/5/2024 at 6:42 PM, bean5302 said:

    Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.

    Nonsense.

    There is zero chance Wallner or Larnach are better than Alonso in 2024.

    None.

     

    FargoFanMan

    FargoFanMan 299

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 6/4/2024 at 7:15 PM, rv78 said:

    The Twins aren't going deep in any playoff scenario if they even make the playoffs this year. You need at least 3 legit shutdown starters to make a deep playoff run and their 4 best, Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober are hit and miss at anytime. As we saw last year with Sonny Gray, all it takes is 1 bad outing to end a playoff run and Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober do that consistantly. No point in trading prospects away for a 1/2 year of a big bat that won't make enough of a difference. A hot player at the right time like, Wallner or Larnach or Kirilloff or Miranda or Lewis will accomplish the same thing as adding Alonso. Stay the course, keep building from within, let the youngsters play, and add a true verifible ACE starter. It's the last piece to the puzzle, another HR bat won't matter.

    Agreed somewhat. Although I think the Twins need a game changing LH hitter instead. Kepler has been good at times but too inconsistent to balance out C4, Lewis, Jeffers etc. the switch hitters in Castro and Santana work for the regular season but in the playoffs maybe not. As far as another “playoff caliber” starter… Always! Time will tell who’s available and who’s injured come deadline time but as we found out last October even a “playoff caliber” starter (sonny gray) can lay an egg and a “playoff caliber” lineup (astros, rangers) can carry a team as well. 



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