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After making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, the Mariners entered 2023 with high expectations. Alas, Seattle lost six of their final 10 games and finished one game behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot. It was a disappointing end for a team that many considered ascendent, with young stars like Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. As with any offseason, the Mariners will try to find ways to supplement their roster, but they face financial uncertainty.
Like Minnesota, Seattle is dealing with their own fallout from the nationwide collapse of regional sports networks. Last season, the Mariners’ payroll sat around $140 million, and the front office hopes to increase that total for 2024. Seattle now owns all of ROOT Sports Northwest, their regional sports network, and the network was attached to a price increase with the largest cable distributor in the Mariners’ region.
Seattle has already been active on the trade market, dealing away pieces with contracts that might not fit their current roster. In November, the Mariners traded Eugenio Suarez ($11.3 million) to Arizona for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala, who are not yet arbitration eligible. At the Winter Meetings, they packaged Jarred Kelenic ($750,000), Marco Gonzalez ($12.25 million), and Evan White ($7 million) for two other cheap, cost-controlled players, Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. It’s clear that Seattle needs to find ways to improve, and cutting these salaries was only the first step.
Seattle’s most significant needs are in the lineup, and they have room to add righties and lefties. After the Kelenic trade, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters that the club wanted to add two or three bats. Still, they are reluctant to deal away starting pitching, one of baseball’s most valuable commodities. Potential trade chips include Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, or Bryan Woo. So, what are some potential trades between these two clubs? All trade values are from Baseball Trade Values, based on the concept of surplus value (number in parentheses) above what the player is being paid and the years of team control.
Potential Trade 1
Twins Receive: Bryan Woo (28.2)
Mariners Receive: Max Kepler (8.3), Matt Wallner (23.1)
Woo made his big-league debut last season and posted a 4.21 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP across 16 starts. In 87 2/3 innings, he had a 93-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he allowed 13 home runs (1.3 HR/9). Seattle had Woo jump from Double A to the big leagues after he dominated that level with a 2.05 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9. Wallner and Kepler have similar skill sets, but the Mariners want to upgrade their offense and both would be better than their incumbents. Kepler’s 121 OPS+ last season would have ranked third on the Mariners, behind J.P. Crawford and Rodríguez. Wallner only got 254 plate appearances in the big leagues, but his 139 OPS+ would have been eight points higher than Rodríguez's.
Potential Trade 2
Mariners Receive: Jorge Polanco (9.4), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1)
Twins Receive: Bryce Miller (25.9)
Miller, like Woo, debuted in 2023. In 25 games, he had a 4.32 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 8.2 K/9. His 3.98 FIP was lower than his ERA, so there may be room for statistical (as well as actual) improvement. For Seattle, Polanco and Rodríguez might offer the best combination of present and future value. Polanco is under team control for two more seasons and has some defensive flexibility to fit into the Mariners lineup. Rodríguez has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the Twins organization and is projected to spend next season at Double A. Last season, Rodríguez posted an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games.
Potential Trade 3
Mariners Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Brooks Lee (33.5)
Twins Receive: Logan Gilbert (65.9)
The Twins might want to trade for a pitcher with a more established track record than the less-experienced Woo or Miller. Gilbert has pitched nearly 500 innings at the big-league level and is in his first year of arbitration eligibility as a Super 2 player. In 2023, he tossed 190 2/3 innings with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. Julien and Lee would be a tough combo to lose at this early juncture in their careers, but frontline starting pitching comes at a high price. Julien posted a 130 OPS+ in 109 games last season, while Lee combined for an .808 OPS between Double and Triple A.
Which trade is the best fit for both teams? Which starting pitcher is the right one for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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