Is José Miranda the Twins' Best Option at First Base?

Minnesota Twins star third baseman Royce Lewis began a rehab assignment with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints Saturday, joining the squad to face the Toronto Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in beautiful upstate New York. Lewis's return to the diamond indicates that the 24-year-old franchise cornerstone will soon be joining the big-league club, with the expectation that the 2017 first-overall pick will return to form as a steady offensive force at the top of the lineup. The Junipero Serra Catholic High School product's return will be celebrated as a cause for renewed optimism about the lineup. However, Twins' decision-makers will be tasked with deciding which player to remove from the 26-man roster to make room for Lewis.

At first glance, demoting a young position player like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, or Edouard Julien makes the most sense. All three players have minor-league options, and all have struggled to produce offensively for most of May. However, Larnach and Kirilloff have recently provided an uptick in offensive production. Also, Julien has long been regarded as a mainstay in the team's lineup, which could make demoting him an uncomfortable blow for him and the team.

The team could also designate a struggling veteran player like Manuel Margot, Carlos Santana, or Kyle Farmer for assignment. However, the Twins' front office values having adequate depth and will go to great lengths to keep veterans around. Newfound injury or other unforeseen circumstances could make the club's impending decision moot, but in all likelihood, a tough call is around the corner. However, there is one position player with minor league options who deserves immunity from the threat of demotion: José Miranda.

Since taking over as the team's near-everyday third baseman in early May, Miranda has hit .279/.313/.467, with 34 hits, five home runs, and four walks over 125 plate appearances and 38 total games. Miranda has generated a 122 wRC+, which places him fourth behind team leaders Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, and Carlos Correa. Despite exhibiting shaky defense at third base, the 25-year-old has become one of the team's most well-rounded hitters, reverting to the player he was during his breakout 2022 campaign, wherein he hit .268/.325/.426 with 119 hits, 15 home runs, and 28 walks over 483 plate appearances and 125 games.

The Twins and those who follow the team have welcomed Miranda's early career renaissance with open arms. However, no matter how much Miranda produces at the plate, third base will rightfully be handed back to Lewis once he returns from the IL. Lewis's immediate insertion into the hot corner doesn't mean Miranda needs to lose at-bats or get demoted to Triple-A St. Paul. Yet, figuring out where to play the hot-hitting right-handed bat will present a unique challenge for Twins decision-makers. Miranda could naturally slot in as the designated hitter against left-handed starting pitchers, though the team will face right-handed starting pitchers considerably more often.

Miranda could play third base when Lewis needs a day off or is the designated hitter. Both avenues are natural fits, yet neither would present a meaningful opportunity for the former second-round pick to continue contributing to the Twins' inconsistent and often stagnant offense.

Interestingly, ample opportunity could present itself at first base. According to Baseball Reference's spreadsheet showing position-by-position performance for each team, the Twins rank 18th in MLB at first base with -0.5 Wins Above Average (WAA). Most of the team's production at first base has come from the duo of Santana (177 plate appearances) and Kirilloff (32 plate appearances). Miranda generated four plate appearances at the position, having played 8 1/3 innings while starting against the Baltimore Orioles on April 17. Nevertheless, the stereotypically offensively rich position has left much to be desired for Minnesota, and Miranda could provide production--something the relatively lifeless duo of Santana and Kirilloff have yet to achieve this season.

Miranda has long been considered a defensive liability at third, who needed to produce huge numbers offensively to justify playing significant time at the hot corner. Interestingly, despite being a lackluster defender at third base, Miranda is perceived as a worse defender at first base. As rare as that is, his advanced metrics match the eye test. In 2022, Miranda had 154 attempts at first base. In these attempts, he managed a 71% success rate against a 74% estimated (expected) success rate, resulting in -4 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA). In contrast, he had 91 attempts at third base, resulting in a 62% success rate and 61% estimated success rate, earning 1 OAA.

Miranda played only 2 1/3 innings at first base in 2023, leaving us nothing to analyze. However, his performance at third base dropped precipitously, garnering a 71% success rate against a 76% estimated success rate, resulting in an uninspiring -6 OAA over 109 attempts. Admittedly, Miranda did have a significant shoulder injury that limited his ability to throw and ultimately required the Puerto Rican native to undergo surgery. Yet, despite fully recovering from that issue, Miranda is still struggling at third base, generating a 65% success rate and a 69% estimated success rate. Miranda's performance at third base has earned him -3 OAA through 71 attempts.

With Miranda being one of the most stable and well-rounded offensive contributors on the team, Lewis nearing a highly anticipated return from the 10-day IL, and Santana and Kirilloff leaving much to be desired out of first base, the Twins ought to give Miranda a real chance at first base, even though they've been reluctant to play him at the position. Santana's excellent glove work could allow them to get him into games late for defense, after Miranda's superior bat gives the team a lead with which to work.

How would you distribute Miranda's playing time upon Lewis's reinstatement, positionally? Who should get the boot from the roster in the process? Sound off below.