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    Joe Mauer’s Cooperstown Case: Examining the 2024 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot


    Cody Christie

    Joe Mauer is a newcomer on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot that was announced on Monday. The hometown hero had detractors during his illustrious career. Let’s dive into the ballot and take a look at his candidacy.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

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    On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the candidates for the 2024 ballot, which includes 12 newcomers and 14 holdovers from last season. Twins legend Joe Mauer is among a strong rookie group on the ballot, including Adrian Beltre, Chase Utley, and David Wright. Beltre is a lock to be elected on the first ballot, while Mauer and Utley also have strong cases to join him in Cooperstown. Here’s a look at Mauer’s candidacy and how the rest of the ballot impacts his election chances. 

    Mauer’s Cooperstown Case
    Mauer played his entire 15-year career for his hometown team after the Twins drafted him with the first overall pick in the 2001 MLB Draft. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 (.827) with a 124 OPS+ on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only one to win three batting titles. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. 

    His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. He missed the season’s first month with a back injury but quickly made his presence felt with a home run in his first game back. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 (1.031) with a 171 OPS+. He set a major league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News, a member of Seattle’s BBWAA chapter, gave Miguel Cabrera a first-place vote, which was all that kept Mauer from being a unanimous selection. 

    Catcher is an underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, which makes Mauer’s candidacy even more interesting. JAWS is a system to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging their career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR. Using JAWS, Mauer is the seventh-best catcher in MLB history, with every catcher ahead of him already elected to the Hall of Fame. Mauer is one of the best catchers of all time, and the only question is whether or not he will be elected on his first ballot. 

    Breaking Down the Ballot
    Among the newcomers to the ballot, Beltre is one of the top all-around players in baseball history. He recorded 3,166 hits and 477 home runs and won five Gold Gloves, including two Platinum Gloves. There is a genuine possibility that he will become the second player in history to be elected unanimously (Mariano Rivera). JAWS ranks him as the fourth-best third baseman of all time behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, and Wade Boggs. Utley’s case is more up in the air because his JAWS total ranks just outside the average of the Hall of Famers at second base. He was a six-time All-Star and won four consecutive Silver Slugger awards from 2006-09.

    There are also some likely inductees among the holdover candidates from last year’s ballot. Todd Helton received 72.2% of the vote last season, which fell just short of the 75% needed for induction. In his career, he was a .316 hitter with 2,519 hits and 369 home runs. According to JAWS, Helton ranks 15th among first basemen, which is ahead of the average of the 24 players at his position. Billy Wagner landed on 68.1% of the ballots in 2023 and is down to his final two ballot cycles to reach 75%. His 422 saves are sixth on the all-time list, and he was a seven-time All-Star. Relievers are among the least represented groups in the Hall, and Wagner ranks sixth all-time in JAWS. Every reliever ahead of him has already been elected to Cooperstown. 

    Prediction
    Beltre, Mauer, and Helton will be elected during the current voting cycle. Utley will do well in his first year on the ballot but will need multiple years to be inducted. Wagner will climb over 70% this year before being elected in 2025, his last year on the ballot. 

    The 2024 inductees will be named on January 23rd, 2024, on MLB.com and MLB Network. The induction ceremony will occur on July 21st, 2024, starting at 1:30 PM in Cooperstown, NY. Should Twins fans start planning their trip? Will Mauer be elected on the first ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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    21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    That must be why they elected Bernie Williams, Don Mattingly, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens so quickly.

    The only bias I've seen in HoF voting seems to be an anti-Detroit bias. There are a lot of Tigers who deserve to go in who can't get any traction.

    Alex, Andy & Roger are all stained by roids.  

    So far, Mauer appears on track to be a unanimous selection: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!54244&authkey=!AGrU1OUsbz4WHyU

    Both ballots posted include him.

    (Then again, both are listed as "sample," so maybe the file is just being set up to test formulas. At any rate, that's the link if folks want to follow along.)

    8 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    Fisk was also on the ballot during a very different time, though. You had more sentiment from voters about being a "first-ballot" HoFer being more special and have additional criteria for some voters. You still had obsessions about unanimous elections, and you had writers still giving players courtesy votes. There was also less understanding of defensive statistics as well.

    There's enough room on this year's ballot for Mauer to get in, but the biggest barrier will be voters who don't use more of their slots. The other barrier will be Joe's lack of post-season success, which wasn't really his fault (and he was denied a signature moment against  the Yankees by Phil Cuzzi on what remains a staggeringly bad call) by some voters might hold it against him in the same idiotic way Dan Barreiro used to hold Mauer's walks against him.

    (Yes, I'm repeating my shots at DannyB; his near-vendetta against Mauer remains shameful, and I'm convinced half of it was because Mauer had no interest in appearing on his show, which makes it even worse)

    Not that Mauer was not above criticism during that time, but there was a subtext (or maybe more of just text...)  that it was really personal to him.   I remember thinking, Dan - did he steal your lunch money or something?   

    I listened to him pretty regularly until a Pete Rose interview.  Not that Pete isn't deserving of getting asked some very tough questions, but he called in to talk about a charity, where I suspect some interview parameters were discussed beforehand.   Dan completely ignored the reason for the call and thought kept trying to confront him as it was 1990.  Rose was clearly irritated but calm and remained until the end of allotted time.  Dan kept getting more indignant and self-righteous.  I remember thinking, this isn't trying to get a good interview, it is to get people to notice his performance and tell him how bad-ass he is, which the other KFAN people later did.  I thought he just sounded unprofessional  Again, not a Rose apolgist, but it did not seem like the tie or place to do an ambush interview, and Rose came off calmer and more mature than Dan.   [long digression there].  After that, my patience for his act grew much shorter.  It did not help that Dan Cole was extended to 2 hours (I think he is good for about an hour) and 5 hours of the 2 Dans was a bit much.

    Completely unscientific guess - think Mauer will get in year 2 to 5.

    On 11/22/2023 at 5:15 AM, Parfigliano said:

    Catcher with....3 batting titles.  5 silver slugger.  3 gold gloves.  That alone should get him in on 1st ballot 

    Catchers with a WAR of above 50 should be in the HOF. That is what the 'books' show, so JM should get in...at least at some point if he is treated fairly.

    The comments sections at The Athletic show some of the weird local sentiment I was talking about. They've got a HoF piece up and there are people saying their MN fans and really throwing shade at Mauer, especially when baseball fans from other parts of the country are like "yeah, seems like an obvious first-ballot guy to me". There's this lingering bitterness that seems based on Mauer getting a huge contract and then not winning a World Series. As if he was responsible for the low payrolls the Pohlads kept, or the bad decisions made by various GMs, or the critical injuries (not just to Joe but Morneau, Liriano, etc), or even Phil Cuzzi.

    Joe Mauer was an MVP, a 6-time all-star (who deserved them all), 3-time batting champion, 3-time gold glover (should have been 4 with one at 1B in 2017) and did it while spending his first 10 seasons as a primary catcher. Look at what catchers hit these days and think about what Mauer would be worth. A truly great player. I'm still amazed he managed to hit .324 in 2013; that team had nobody else hitting (Morneau was sapped by injury, Dozier hadn't figured it out yet, Willingham was cooked and there was just nothing else there). Mauer only got IBB'd 7 times that season and I'm amazed it wasn't 20. He was on pace for another MVP-caliber season before it ended prematurely.




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