If the Twins Won’t Spend, They Need to Trade Ryan Jeffers Now

Derek Falvey keeps saying he wants to add to the roster, to keep the starting pitching intact, and that he intends to compete. That said, the Twins don’t seem to be any closer to telegraphing intentions around payroll, and who knows when we will learn the identity or viability of the limited partners they hope to bring on. With the winter meetings right around the corner, if the Twins aren’t going to spend enough to fight for more than a .500 record, they should be actively shopping Ryan Jeffers as he enters the final year of team control.

Being a catcher is a tough gig, with a lot of complexity to it. Beyond the physical toll of crouching, taking foul balls off the body, and having to pop up quickly to fire a throw to second, they need to call the game for an entire pitching staff. In today’s game, that means having a relationship with 13 different pitchers, plus the dozen or so more that spend a day, a week, or a month on the roster. Catchers have to be familiar with each pitcher’s repertoire, have a feel for proper sequencing for them, and quickly gauge the relative effectiveness of their arsenal on any given day. That’s…a lot.

If you are a manager of people in your daily life, you know how difficult it is to be up to speed with the personalities, strengths, and needs of the people who work for you. Now, imagine being dropped into a new environment without the luxury of time to get to know people. It’s tough, right?

By nature, any team trading for a starting catcher at the deadline is in the hunt. Time is dwindling, and every game matters. There aren’t months, or even weeks, to ramp up. There isn’t time to study film, or receive several bullpen sessions. Further, any team looking to trade for a catcher is doing so for a reason. Probably, it’s because they either lost their starting catcher to injury, or he has been ineffective at the plate to the point of needing to be relegated to backup duty. These factors combine to mean that the pool of teams looking to trade for a catcher is limited, indeed.

Because of all of these factors, starting catchers are very rarely traded mid-season; it just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

In fact, as best as I can tell, only seven starting catchers have been traded at the deadline in the past decade. Jonathan Lucroy was dealt twice, in 2016 and 2017. Martin Maldonado was traded twice, in 2018 and 2019. Austin Nola, in 2020, went from the Mariners to the Padres. Yan Gomes moved in 2021. Austin Hedges was traded in both 2020 and 2023. Old friend Wilson Ramos found a new home in both 2018 and 2021. Finally, old friend Christian Vasquez was traded from the Red Sox to the Astros in 2022. That’s not many trades at all, compared to any other position.

Based on all this, it’s safe to assume that hoping the stars align for a trade at the deadline is not a good bet. It’s also safe to assume the Twins do not intend to give Jeffers a qualifying offer next offseason. And, I can’t imagine them looking to sign him to an extension as he would surely command somewhere between $10 and $15 million a year over at least three seasons.

Jeffers is an above-average hitter at a tough position, is well-liked, cerebral, and is expected to be above-average at using the ABS challenge system to his advantage behind the dish. While he struggles with pitch framing and pop time, he would still have very real value to any team looking to upgrade at catcher.

Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 2.0 fWAR, the same as the best free agent catcher currently available, J.T. Realmuto. The latter, per The Athletic, is due for a three-year, $45 million deal even as he enters the twilight of his career. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Jeffers is expected to cost around $6.6 million in his final turn through arbitration and comes without that pesky multi-year aspect, which many teams would presumably like to avoid heading into the uncertainty of the 2027 CBA negotiations. There is surplus value to be had, and plenty of teams would pay for that.

It’s time for Falvey to pick a lane, but if it’s a rebuild, whatever he wants to call it, it’s time to trade Jeffers before losing him for nothing at season’s end.