How the Twins' Shifting Tendencies Will Change in 2021

In 2020, the Miami Marlins shifted almost 42 percent of the time against right-handed batters, the highest frequency in the majors. Against lefties, however, only four teams shifted less often than Don Mattingly’s Fish. They were the only team in baseball who shifted more often against righties than against lefties, in absolute terms.

Meanwhile, the Giants, Reds, and Mariners all shifted less than 11 percent of the time against right-handed batters, but over 64 percent of the time against lefties. They were clustered near the bottom of the league in terms of shifts against half of all hitters, but just as close to the top of the league against the other half.

The Twins shifted seventh-most in baseball in 2020. They deployed more shifts against lefties (55 percent of the time) than against righties (31.6 percent), but in relative terms, that meant that they leaned toward righties. They were seventh in the league in shifting on righties, but 11th against lefties.

That was in a season in which Josh Donaldson was often unavailable. This winter, they went out and added Andrelton Simmons as Donaldson’s partner on the left side of the infield. Meanwhile, whatever hopes the team harbored for the players they have shoved across to the right side of the diamond, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco do not look like a strong pairing.

Expect the Twins to become much more similar to the Giants, Reds, and Mariners in 2021, in terms of defensive positioning. They might still not reach those extremes, but one reason for building as strong a left side as Simmons and Donaldson should be is to reduce the need to shift against righties. Against lefties, on the other hand, the availability of Simmons only increases the team’s incentive to shift. Putting a player with his skills on the side of the diamond where the ball is most likely to be hit is a no-brainer.

Many things go into the process of mapping defensive alignments and strategies. It would be too simplistic to say that the Twins will stop shifting against right-handers because of their Fielding Bible Award-caliber shortstop and third baseman, and we can’t assume they’ll dramatically increase their rate of shifts against lefties, either. However, the direction in which both of those numbers are likely to move seems clear, and they should combine to move another number. Expect the Twins to turn more of their ground balls into outs in 2021, after they fell short of their own goals in that area in both 2019 and 2020.

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