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    Here Comes the Injury Bug: Who Can Backfill in the Bullpen?


    Cody Pirkl

    The Twins' bullpen has taken some hits in the last week, and some of the group's health concerns are already showing up. Who could we see stepping into more prominent roles?

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    While the timelines are not yet clear, the Twins have lost two pieces of their potential bullpen puzzle in the last week. The relief corps was projected to be one of the best in baseball this season, but a few of their depth options will already be unexpectedly pushed into more playing time. Who could stand to benefit?

    Matt Canterino may not have slotted into an Opening Day role, but he was looked at as a potential impact addition to the bullpen sometime this season—if he could finally stay healthy. Instead, he’s been shut down again with shoulder issues, which caused him to miss all of 2024. While his status remains in question, it’s fair to wonder whether this early recurrence of his shoulder woes foreshadows another lost season. Indeed, Canterino's career itself might soon be in jeopardy.

    On the other hand, Justin Topa was fairly likely to make the Opening Day roster, after missing most of 2024 himself. A piece of the Jorge Polanco trade, Topa has yet to make an impact with the Twins after a fantastic season with the Mariners in 2023. On Wednesday, he left his outing early with shoulder discomfort, having shown diminished velocity in the handful of pitches he threw before departing. While it's good news that this isn't a recurrence of the knee trouble that shelved him for most of 2024, it’s unfortunate, and it could have him behind for Opening Day, at the very least.

    Luckily, the Twins were already in a spot with potential MLB-caliber relief options who may not break camp with the parent club. The rest of the spring could now be an open competition.

    Louis Varland already appeared to be competing for a spot in the bullpen. Though the Twins haven’t come right out and declared him a full-time reliever, their actions speak loud and clear. Varland has yet to make an appearance of more than a single inning this spring. Given how the Twins typically operate, if they saw any scenario in which Varland would contribute to the rotation early in the season, he would likely still be building up his workload.

    While Varland’s career has had its ups and downs, he’s shown he can be a high-impact high-leverage reliever. His streamlined repertoire plays well with his near-triple-digit fastball, and there’s certainly a world where he’s pitching high-leverage innings this season. His spot on the Opening Day roster wasn’t guaranteed, but it becomes quite likely that he’ll be in the Twins bullpen on Opening Day if Topa is unavailable.

    Perhaps the loss of a setup-caliber reliever doesn’t help Eiberson Castellano make the roster, but the numbers game does. The Rule 5 Draft pickup was the Philadelphia Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year last season, and he must stay in MLB for the entirety of 2025 unless the Twins want to send him back. Because of this, we could see the Twins hide Castellano in long relief or mop-up duty, hoping they can reevaluate the talented right-hander’s role in 2026.

    Suppose the Twins feel comfortable with the upper tier of their bullpen, despite Topa’s absence. In that case, Castellano is the perfect pitcher to slot into a low-leverage role at the very bottom of the bullpen hierarchy. Despite the remaining starting pitcher ceiling, it’s also possible that Castellano can make a legitimate contribution to the Twins bullpen if he gets a shot.

    There's always a chance another reliever will put themselves on the radar this spring. Travis Adams could serve in a bulk role. Minor-league signings like Alex Speas or Huascar Ynoa could earn a spot. There could also be more openings than we currently believe. There's always the risk of more injuries, or that a veteran isn’t quite ready by the end of the spring. It’s also possible someone like 40-man roster recipient Michael Tonkin is in actual competition for a spot at the end of the bullpen. He’s undoubtedly struggled to begin the spring, and the Twins may choose to go a younger direction.

    It’s always a bummer to see injuries this early in the season, and the Twins pitching staff still has plenty of question marks to answer health-wise before the regular season starts. The relief corps remains strong for now, and the injuries sustained should result in more opportunities for young and exciting players.


    Are there other pitchers who could find themselves with more opportunities in 2025 because of these early injuries? Let us know below!

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    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the rigid structure I'm understanding is:
    Castellano isn't good enough to be in the bullpen.
    The Twins have no options but to keep him on the roster the entire year if he makes it out of camp.
    The Twins must deploy Castellano in scenarios they don't want to use him.
    Castellano will therefore result in the Twins losing games they should have won.

    My argument would be:
    Castellano's peripherals in AA last year were better than any Twins prospect not named Zebby Matthews.
    Castellano has multiple potential plus pitches which could make him a potent weapon out of the bullpen (or possibly even the rotation) even out of camp.
    The Twins can evaluate Castellano for his current and future value before offering him a roster spot during Spring Training.
    The Twins can give Castellano work in reliever work in blowout games to see him in action early in the season before the bullpen gets worn down and they can shuffle #7 bullpen arms back and forth in AAA to keep relievers fresh.
    The Twins can work out a trade or send Castellano back to the Phillies if they feel he's not worthy of the 8th spot in an MLB bullpen (or better).

    There are many guys in the rotation or bullpen which are suspect where it would be awfully hard for me to argue they're going to increase the winning percentage of the team in a way that elevates the teams status at the end of the season vs. a small sample of Castellano.

    Matt Canterino - shoulder strain (serious)
    Michael Tonkin - shoulder strain (will miss at least a couple weeks)
    Justin Topa - shoulder tightness (testing)
    Zebby Matthews - right hip strain (not serious)
    and we've got a few weeks to go.

    Who do you trust more? Kody Funderburk or Eiberson Castellano and if that's Funderburk, is that by enough to lose a probable #10 org prospect?

    It really changes the meaning of what I wrote when you omit. 

    “Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back.”

    Without it you make it sound like I know that he will not be effective. I haven’t seen him pitch. I don’t have the skill to use the data available to me to make a determination of readiness. We have just wasted a whole bunch of time if the argument is about whether he is ready because I have no business being part of that argument. I have no idea. For fear of wasting more time…

    The Twins will need to make multiple moves with the bullpen over the course of the season. Last April 13 the Twins sent optioned Alcala after 6 outings (3 of them 2 innings) while giving up 0 earned runs. It was at least the second time in the young season the Twins needed to make a bullpen move. I do not support a move where they option out an effective reliever while retaining a clearly less effective pitcher that can’t be optioned. 

     

    To repeat: there is no such thing as a low leverage reliever. 

    If the Twins braintrust thinks Castellano can be an effective MLB reliever, great. Keep him. 

    But they can't (and I doubt will) keep him if he's not effective, pretending it won't affect the W/L record. They can't (and I doubt will) go into three season thinking "his spot's not important."

    Fortunately, I doubt they believe he can spend even 2 weeks on the roster without being needed for important innings, much less a season.

    Because they understand there's no way a 7 man bullpen isn't worse than an 8 man.

     




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