Gambling On The Relief Market: Simply Folly

Otto von Ballpark · November 13, 2015

There's really no way to know how a reliever will perform when signed. Tony Sipp could get 3 years and $21 million (or so), and he was pretty non-good for 5 years in the big leagues before becoming terrific last year... Which is real? There are a million examples of this over time.

Sipp was terrific last year, but he was actually solid the year prior too, and also for a year or two earlier in his career with Cleveland (although much wilder then).

If teams thought 2015 was "real", he'd probably get more than 3/21. FWIW, MLBTR predicts he stays in Houston with a 3 year $12 mil contract, which isn't that much more AAV than what the Twins paid Duensing last year ($2.7 mil)

I don't know if relievers are that much different than other free agents, as far as reliably predicting future performance. Teams look at age, peripherals, track record, and upside in much the same ways, and the fact that these guys seem to hover around the modest commitment of 3/15 on the open market is a reflection of their roles and the realities of variable performance.

A guy from last year that stood out was Zach Duke -- he really came out of nowhere to have a great relief season in Milwaukee. He got 3/15 because teams knew that one season wasn't "real" but it suggested he had joined the club of decent FA relievers in that price range.

ThejacKmp · November 13, 2015

None of those guys can strike anyone out though, and I think that's pretty imperative for a guy in the pen.

At least it's been the biggest weakness of the recent relievers this team has assembled.

Erroneous.

Logan Darnell's K9 in the MLB was 8.2 and is consistently above 7.0 in the upper minors. In the minors, Taylor Rogers sits around 6.5 while Pat Dean is around 5.0.

That doesn't take into consideration the jump in strikeouts one would imagine when they throw harder as they shift into a relief role. For comparison's sake, as a major league starter Glen Perkins averaged 4.3 K/9 and now averages 9.3. Mariano Rivera jumped from 6.8 to 8.3. For non-stars you see Anthony Swarzak jumping from 4.9 to 5.9 or Liam Hendriks jumping from 5.4 to 10.1. I'm not saying that these three guys will automatically jump like Rivera or a Perkins (Pelfrey actually dropped from 5.1 to 3.9) but their K rates are within the range that you could see them become swing-and-miss pitchers. These three serve no real purpose to the Twins as starters, it's time to see if they are more Hendriks or more Swarzak. If just one of them became a very good reliever that would be huge for the team.

And again, we're not asking them to become elite relievers with elite K rates, we're saying that these guys could become good decent middle relief prospects. They would also be cheap, as the Twins would control them for years to come at a low cost.

There's no reason not to try it - the Twins lost out on Liam Hendriks during a period they weren't competitive because they didn't push all failed starters into the pen. Lets not make that mistake again.

ThejacKmp · November 13, 2015

Analysis please?

A guy like Maloney or Stauffer who fails and gets cut doesn't count much on the negative side of the ledger... but then who replaces them? A guy like Gray or Roenicke who struggles but sticks around doing low-leverage work to keep his WAR from dropping too low -- who takes the higher leverage innings?

The Twins bullpen the last 4 years has seen a notable lack of plus performers, which was highlighted in this year's pennant race. I don't know if the Twins current recipe is really working all that well. Targeting a good, high strikeout reliever on a 3/15 type deal seems like it could be a really smart play for the modest commitment involved, unless you know a better way to invest that money.

I think the point of the article was that that is exactly the kind of investment that frequently pays no dividends. That money could be better spent signing extensions, in the international pool, on posting fees or bringing in a bunch of minor league free agents to see who sticks. Signing a reliever on a 3/15 deal is super iffy. You're likely flushing that money away.

Mike Sixel · November 13, 2015

I'm on board with 4-man starting rotation but I see a 13 man pitching staff with 9 relievers, not 11 and 7 like your plan. Starters never, ever go more than 6 innings and 5 is common. That limits your starters to roughly 200 innings (40 starts x 5 innings). Starting pitching is the scarcest commodity in baseball. It is much easier to find a reliever who will be as good as your SP the 3rd time through the order. Blaine Boyer types are everywhere. The best relievers are as good as a SP the first time through or sometimes better.

Ha, I added wrong! yes, more RP than I showed....

Seth Stohs · November 13, 2015

Not disagreeing with the sentiment at all, in fact, I agree with you completely that its a crap shoot.

But, Sipp is curious case because he always had a better than average repertoire (including a heavy fastball, a splitter, slider, and sinker) from the left side. Sometimes, just having the ability to get the ball over the plate with your left arm gets you paid (Duensing). He's always had high K/9, and has strung together two very impressive seasons of FIP and WHIP. I don't think its overly strange for him to get a nice contract. But, in sticking with the theme of the thread, and your sentiment, I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle again, as you mentioned.

I'm curious as to your opinion on the current, possible high-end, relievers in the Twins system (Burdi, Reed, Jones, Cederoth, Melotakis, Peterson - is Chagrois still around? - possibly Meyer, etc), and how that relates to the upcoming season. Any chance any of these guys crack the bullpen in 2016, so the Twins don't have to participate in the RP free-agency roulette for a few years? Any guys in particular that you like? It seems like Burdi, considering where he was drafted as a pure reliever, should be progressing a little faster. Any opinions on how he's coming along, now that his first full year as a pro is over?

Good questions...

To your first comment, about Sipp, I agree with what you're saying. I guess I would say that it shouldn't be about the numbers as much as what they are doing... In other words, if there is some scouting reason that he made these improvements and it can be repeatable (like, something clicked), that's more important to me than the numbers...

As for the list, my opinion is that Burdi or Chargois will be the first from that group to get to the big leagues - unless Meyer gets off to a great start. Those two, along with Jones and Reed, should start in AA again, and could move quickly. Melotakis likely won't return to game action until May or June, and I'm sure they'll mainly just try to keep him healthy this year. But he's a gas-throwing lefty.

Otto von Ballpark · November 13, 2015

I think the point of the article was that that is exactly the kind of investment that frequently pays no dividends. That money could be better spent signing extensions, in the international pool, on posting fees or bringing in a bunch of minor league free agents to see who sticks. Signing a reliever on a 3/15 deal is super iffy. You're likely flushing that money away.

And that point wasn't really proven, at all.

3/15 isn't very expensive, it doesn't buy you much in those other investments either. So relievers at that price don't have to provide any kind of incredible return. (Of course, the article conveniently left out analyzing returns of any other strategies or investments, so we are left with nothing to compare with the FA relievers.)

And we've seen what kind of bullpen is created by "bringing in a bunch of minor league free agents to see who sticks" and it isn't often pretty even when a guy like Boyer "sticks", and can really handcuff a team midseason.

Would I want to build a complete 4 or 5 man bullpen out of these free agent signings, to the exclusion of all else? No, but nobody is asking us to do that. A targeted one or two of these signings can absolutely be part of a smart strategy to address a weak pen.

Edited November 13, 2015 by spycake

nicksaviking · November 13, 2015

Erroneous.

Logan Darnell's K9 in the MLB was 8.2 and is consistently above 7.0 in the upper minors. In the minors, Taylor Rogers sits around 6.5 while Pat Dean is around 5.0.

That doesn't take into consideration the jump in strikeouts one would imagine when they throw harder as they shift into a relief role. For comparison's sake, as a major league starter Glen Perkins averaged 4.3 K/9 and now averages 9.3. Mariano Rivera jumped from 6.8 to 8.3. For non-stars you see Anthony Swarzak jumping from 4.9 to 5.9 or Liam Hendriks jumping from 5.4 to 10.1. I'm not saying that these three guys will automatically jump like Rivera or a Perkins (Pelfrey actually dropped from 5.1 to 3.9) but their K rates are within the range that you could see them become swing-and-miss pitchers. These three serve no real purpose to the Twins as starters, it's time to see if they are more Hendriks or more Swarzak. If just one of them became a very good reliever that would be huge for the team.

And again, we're not asking them to become elite relievers with elite K rates, we're saying that these guys could become good decent middle relief prospects. They would also be cheap, as the Twins would control them for years to come at a low cost.

There's no reason not to try it - the Twins lost out on Liam Hendriks during a period they weren't competitive because they didn't push all failed starters into the pen. Lets not make that mistake again.

Darnell and Dean are soft-tossing lefties, I don't think they can even hit 90 MPH. They may be able to increase their velocity as a reliever, but they're still going to be your traditional junkballer that possibly could miss bats in AAA but usually can't get batters to do the same at the MLB level. Look at Tommy Milone who was mowing down batters in AAA yet doesn't miss many bats at the MLB level.

If the options were sparse and the team was in the gutter, sure, you might as well give it a shot, but we can be relatively confident in the types of pitchers these guys are and they are not late-inning relievers, which is what this team needs. This team doesn't need more middle relief options, the whole pen is full of those guys already; Fien, Pressly, Tonken, Graham. There are better options both internal and external that should be vetted first.

Kwak · November 13, 2015

The Twins should definitely be cycling their top RPs from the minors into the Active Roster. People are stacking-up and those who were "selected" as "top prospects" must demonstrate that projection now. If a guy can't cut it, then he gets passed on the "prospect list" and someone else gets their chance.

Darius · November 13, 2015

Good questions...

To your first comment, about Sipp, I agree with what you're saying. I guess I would say that it shouldn't be about the numbers as much as what they are doing... In other words, if there is some scouting reason that he made these improvements and it can be repeatable (like, something clicked), that's more important to me than the numbers...

As for the list, my opinion is that Burdi or Chargois will be the first from that group to get to the big leagues - unless Meyer gets off to a great start. Those two, along with Jones and Reed, should start in AA again, and could move quickly. Melotakis likely won't return to game action until May or June, and I'm sure they'll mainly just try to keep him healthy this year. But he's a gas-throwing lefty.

Interesting, I wouldn't have guessed Chargois is that far along (but I haven't been paying close attention, either).

I expect Meyer to have a good year (just gut feeling), and make a meaningful impact out of the pen at some point. He has to realize his career has gone from "future ace," to "AAAA code red" in a matter of months. If that doesn't make you go after your offseason like a Beserker, I don't know what possibly could. It makes me want to go to the gym just thinking about it (on second thought, a couple fingers of Glenlivet and a Rocky Patel sound much, much better. I think I get how its tough, now).

Should be fun to watch unfold. Already looking forward to those minor league reports!

Seth Stohs · November 14, 2015

Interesting, I wouldn't have guessed Chargois is that far along (but I haven't been paying close attention, either).

I expect Meyer to have a good year (just gut feeling), and make a meaningful impact out of the pen at some point. He has to realize his career has gone from "future ace," to "AAAA code red" in a matter of months. If that doesn't make you go after your offseason like a Beserker, I don't know what possibly could. It makes me want to go to the gym just thinking about it (on second thought, a couple fingers of Glenlivet and a Rocky Patel sound much, much better. I think I get how its tough, now).

Should be fun to watch unfold. Already looking forward to those minor league reports!

I ranked Chargois pretty high in my Top 50 Twins Prospect rankings last month.

I have a good feeling about Meyer as well. I think a full offseason to clear his mind, to get married and to kind of just start over will help. He's a really good guy, works hard, and has a ton of talent.

jorgenswest · November 14, 2015

The risk in signing a 30+ reliever to a multiyear contract is that they will be mediocre and their contract will keep them on the team. Instead of giving the ball to younger stronger arms, they will keep giving the ball to the veteran with the declining strike out rate and velocity.

Trade for a younger reliever with a lively arm. Pay up for a free agent on a one year deal. Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

Kwak · November 14, 2015

The risk in signing a 30+ reliever to a multiyear contract is that they will be mediocre and their contract will keep them on the team. Instead of giving the ball to younger stronger arms, they will keep giving the ball to the veteran with the declining strike out rate and velocity.

Trade for a younger reliever with a lively arm. Pay up for a free agent on a one year deal. Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

Agree. I posted as much a few minutes ago in a different thread.

Otto von Ballpark · November 15, 2015

Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

Odds are too great according to what? You haven't really responded to any of the major issues with the data you presented.

Hrbowski · November 15, 2015

Darnell and Dean are soft-tossing lefties, I don't think they can even hit 90 MPH. They may be able to increase their velocity as a reliever, but they're still going to be your traditional junkballer that possibly could miss bats in AAA but usually can't get batters to do the same at the MLB level. Look at Tommy Milone who was mowing down batters in AAA yet doesn't miss many bats at the MLB level.

If the options were sparse and the team was in the gutter, sure, you might as well give it a shot, but we can be relatively confident in the types of pitchers these guys are and they are not late-inning relievers, which is what this team needs. This team doesn't need more middle relief options, the whole pen is full of those guys already; Fien, Pressly, Tonken, Graham. There are better options both internal and external that should be vetted first.

I don't know what Dean can hit, but I have seen Darnell hit 96, so I think you are just taking a look at the facts that he is a lefty, coming up from the Twins farm, was a failed starter who was moved to the bullpen, and than assume that he can't hit 90.

jorgenswest · November 15, 2015

Odds are too great according to what? You haven't really responded to any of the major issues with the data you presented.

Did you read the original article and the link to Cameron's earlier study?

The 11 that I added from 2013 averaged 38 innings per season. No one had an ERA under 3. Six of the 11 severely underperformed their contracts. Three of the 11 finished their contract with their teams and performed as expected (Peralta, Choate, Gorzelanny).

If the argument is that using WAR or fangraph dollars as a one number summary doesn't work, they are based on FIP which is based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Would you prefer ERA? WPA?

mikelink45 · November 15, 2015

Alex Meyer,
Taylor Rogers,
Logan Darnell,
JT Chargois,
Jake Reed,
Nick Burdi...

All guys who could come up this year. Chargois and Burdi can tough triple digits while Meyer and Reed are generally 95-97...

Also, Tonkin's out of options, so they need to make a call there or open up a spot and let him sink or swim

And assuming May isn't given a starter's job, he'll be sitting 94-97 out of the bullpen.

They're close.

I really appreciate this article and Seth's list. Stop chasing relievers and develop them.

Kwak · November 15, 2015

I really appreciate this article and Seth's list. Stop chasing relievers and develop them.

...and by extension, use those relief pitchers. The Twins have many "ready for tryout".

USAFChief · November 15, 2015

I really appreciate this article and Seth's list. Stop chasing relievers and develop them.

You could say the same about any position. Stop chasing catchers and develop them. Stop chasing starters and develop them.

It's one of those theories that has the ring of authority but has little chance of working.

Forcing players onto your big league team simply because you drafted them isn't how you get consistently good.

There is nothing inherently wrong with signing FA relievers. The key, as with any position, is signing talent, and then getting lucky with health.

Not to mention, adding relievers from outside your organization is doubly important simply because you need so many of them. You might hit on two draft picks to fill your C position. Having 8-12 good relievers available to get through a seaon entirely from your own system is unlikely at best.

Don't pay for saves. Absolutely pay for guys who get results.

Otto von Ballpark · November 15, 2015

Did you read the original article and the link to Cameron's earlier study?

The 11 that I added from 2013 averaged 38 innings per season. No one had an ERA under 3. Six of the 11 severely underperformed their contracts. Three of the 11 finished their contract with their teams and performed as expected (Peralta, Choate, Gorzelanny).

If the argument is that using WAR or fangraph dollars as a one number summary doesn't work, they are based on FIP which is based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Would you prefer ERA? WPA?

I read your article and Cameron's. Did you read any of my previous responses? The flaws with your data and conclusion go deeper than FIP.

Chiefly, you don't analyze alternatives and their outcomes for comparison. Is there another place a team can spend $5 mil a year with notably better returns? A marginally better shot at a great relief season (like Affeldt's 2014, 1.5 bWAR plus an outstanding postseason) could easily be worth that modest investment for a contending team.

You also state that the Twins method of bullpen building has been fine recently, which 2015 clearly suggests otherwise.

You could analyze almost any group of free agents and conclude they are a bad investment as a group on a $/WAR level, but that doesn't mean signing any single one of them is necessarily a bad investment, especially when the cost is so modest and the need is so dire (i.e. present day Twins bullpen).

A more accurate conclusion from your data is that it is inadvisable to try building a full 4-5 man bullpen in FA, but nobody is arguing for that at all.

Edited November 15, 2015 by spycake

jorgenswest · November 15, 2015

I think the majority of the 30+ relievers that sign multiyear deals will be signings that eventually hurt their team. They will be kept and their performance will not be at the level of playoff bound bullpen. Younger players will not get an opportunity.

A single investment can be very good. Do the Twins have the skill to select the correct reliever who will produce for three years?

In general, they need to sign players well above league average so their decline takes them to league average. Otherwise they get for the mediocre return of decline while paying for the previous level of performance in their prime.

ScottyB · November 15, 2015

I'm all on board with moving failed starters to the pen. See Hawkins, Aguilera, Guardado, Perkins, not to mention someone like Wade Davis. Maybe it doesn't always work, but it can't hurt to try.

sploorp · November 15, 2015

The Twins have such an overabundance of back of the rotation starters, it's time to start converting some of those guys to relievers. Logan Darnell, Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean - these guys are unlikely to get a chance starting in the bigs so it's time to see what they can do in shorter stints. If the Twins can't unload Ricky Nolasco, it's time to see what he can do from the pen too.

I completely agree with that.

The best relievers aren't drafted or bought, they're converted from the current starter corp. I would definitely try Nolasco in the pen. Maybe they still can get at least a little bit of return on his contract.

Edited November 15, 2015 by sploorp

Otto von Ballpark · November 15, 2015

A single investment can be very good. Do the Twins have the skill to select the correct reliever who will produce for three years?
.

Have the Twins shown better aptitude for drafting and developing relievers? Have they built a playoff caliber bullpen with 1 year FA deals (Stauffer) and minor league free agents? Frankly the Twins haven't even tried signing a valued MLB FA reliever, I am not sure why you are so convinced they thoroughly lack that skill. Edited November 15, 2015 by spycake

Otto von Ballpark · November 15, 2015

I think the majority of the 30+ relievers that sign multiyear deals will be signings that eventually hurt their team. They will be kept and their performance will not be at the level of playoff bound bullpen. Younger players will not get an opportunity.

Just like Affeldt clearly hurt the Giants, like your data showed?

Go back to your list and find how many teams were actually "hurt" by these modest deals, rather than just failed your arbitrary WAR/$ threshold. I think you are WAY overrating the potential negative impact of a 3/15 signing, especially in a Twins pen that history shows has had no shortage of weak arms lately. The Twins are in no danger of holding back better relievers right now.

Physics Guy · November 16, 2015

How'd Liam Hendriks look last year?

Pretty darned well I'd say. I was shocked when I saw his stats a couple of months ago. He was only 26 this year.

ThejacKmp · November 16, 2015

Darnell and Dean are soft-tossing lefties, I don't think they can even hit 90 MPH. They may be able to increase their velocity as a reliever, but they're still going to be your traditional junkballer that possibly could miss bats in AAA but usually can't get batters to do the same at the MLB level. Look at Tommy Milone who was mowing down batters in AAA yet doesn't miss many bats at the MLB level.

If the options were sparse and the team was in the gutter, sure, you might as well give it a shot, but we can be relatively confident in the types of pitchers these guys are and they are not late-inning relievers, which is what this team needs. This team doesn't need more middle relief options, the whole pen is full of those guys already; Fien, Pressly, Tonken, Graham. There are better options both internal and external that should be vetted first.

I'm not saying give them a bullpen spot on the MLB squad. Give them a shot in spring training and if anyone looks good keep them, otherwise send them to Rochester to work on it. It will take time but the Twins literally have nothing to lose by trying this. Remember the Perkins.

Logan Darnell's fastball sits at 91-93 range and Pat Dean sits in the low 90s. If you add a couple of MPH you have a decent middle reliever speed. Especially since they are lefties and outside of the closer, the Twins are bereft of good left handed relievers.

Another factor is that relief pitchers don't throw four pitches. Settling down to 2, maybe 3 pitches can help improve any of these guys too.

ThejacKmp · November 16, 2015

And that point wasn't really proven, at all.

3/15 isn't very expensive, it doesn't buy you much in those other investments either. So relievers at that price don't have to provide any kind of incredible return. (Of course, the article conveniently left out analyzing returns of any other strategies or investments, so we are left with nothing to compare with the FA relievers.)

And we've seen what kind of bullpen is created by "bringing in a bunch of minor league free agents to see who sticks" and it isn't often pretty even when a guy like Boyer "sticks", and can really handcuff a team midseason.

Would I want to build a complete 4 or 5 man bullpen out of these free agent signings, to the exclusion of all else? No, but nobody is asking us to do that. A targeted one or two of these signings can absolutely be part of a smart strategy to address a weak pen.

Can you explain where you think his point isn’t proven? The original source is a very well-respected source and the author did a nice update job by showing the few successes and many failures of the free agent relief pitching market since then. I don’t see where you say that the point wasn’t proven. Yes, he didn’t look at other strategies and investments but basically, signing high-priced free agent relievers is so risky with so little bang for the buck that almost anything would be better. The Twins have had demonstrable success investing money in the international prospect scene, they have a bevy of high upside arms coming up the pipeline and they’re not rebuilding an entire pen – with Jepsen, Perkins and likely May/Milone/other starter, they’re really just looking for 3 guys or so to fill out the back end of the pen. The author’s point that big contract free agent relievers are iffy at best is pretty solid; trusting the young arms and getting some lower priced free agents on 1 year deals seems like the best way to preserve roster flexibility in upcoming years while investing the money in a bunch of prospects (international or shifting through the waste of other organizations) will better help bolster the pen in 3-5 years.

Otto von Ballpark · November 16, 2015

Can you explain where you think his point isn’t proven? The original source is a very well-respected source and the author did a nice update job by showing the few successes and many failures of the free agent relief pitching market since then. I don’t see where you say that the point wasn’t proven.

Dave Cameron is not infallible, and not only did his quick analysis fail to note that FIP breaks at extremes (guys with high ERAs, exactly who we would expect around replacement level, often have much more favorable FIPs), he also assumed that 0 WAR = replacement level = whoever you can sign in any given offseason on minor league deals, without presenting any evidence to support that point.

Unfortunately, this "update" didn't address those problems and actually added some more, which I will note in another post.

The Twins have had demonstrable success investing money in the international prospect scene, they have a bevy of high upside arms coming up

International prospect signings are capped now, and the Twins have shown no indication that they will break that cap. And even if they did, they wouldn't need to take $4-$5 mil annually from the MLB bullpen to do so.

And I think our "bevy of high upside arms" are just about as close to helping the MLB pen as they were a year ago (meaning, not that close).

Edited November 16, 2015 by spycake

Otto von Ballpark · November 16, 2015

Going back and looking closely at the group, it appears there are lots of problems considering them and their contracts as comparables for a potential Twins bullpen signing.

The list was defined as "non-closers" but the two biggest contracts (League and Broxton) were both acquired as closers from their previous teams and both ostensibly held the closer position immediately after signing these contracts (League to open the 2013 season in LA, and Broxton in spring training that year as the Reds were trying Chapman as a starter again).

Also noted by others, Fujikawa was a Japenese closer with zero MLB experience. The fact that he ultimately signed with a rebuilding MLB team and forfeited his closer position suggests he was a gamble more than an attempt to get a solid MLB set-up man.

Take these names off the list, and you drop $52 mil in salary obligations, and only lose ~$3 mil in Fangraphs value. All of a sudden, free agent set up contracts don't seem like such an obviously bad bargain that they are not even worth their modest investment.

Edited November 16, 2015 by spycake

Otto von Ballpark · November 16, 2015

And there's probably more adjustments one can make.

Gorzelanny started 10 games his first season in Milwaukee, and had only a 0.6 leverage index during his two years there, suggesting he was acquired to be a swingman or mop-up man rather than a set-up man.

Frankly, Burnett might skew toward Fujikawa-level gamble too, as he missed time due to elbow inflammation and had minor elbow surgery just before signing his contract, which was quite low considering his age and coming off a 1.5 bWAR season.

As noted previously, Affeldt was tremendous in the 2014 postseason for the Giants which was not included in his value estimate. Affeldt was also part of the Giants defending World Series champion in 2012 when he signed this contract, and another Giants title in 2010, so his value was probably greater to San Francisco than anywhere else which probably inflated his contract. jorgenswest called him arguably the biggest value suck on this list, but I strongly suspect the Giants disagree.

Also, the analysis omitted the value from Soria's excellent option year (1.7 bWAR), and his two good to great trade returns during the life of the deal.

Simply put: we are nowhere near proving that an expected contender with a weak pen is better off avoiding the free agent set-up market.

Edited November 16, 2015 by spycake

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