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    Did The Twins Give Up On Hicks Too Soon?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    On Wednesday, the Twins traded away a 26-year-old former first round pick coming off a season in which he appeared to turn a corner in the majors.

    Understandably, this has caused some to wonder whether the team is letting Aaron Hicks get away at the wrong time.

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhorn, USA Today

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    In terms of upside, there's really no comparing Hicks and the player that Minnesota received back in the deal, John Ryan Murphy. In one corner you have a player with All Star potential; Hicks has all the tools necessary to be one of the league's better center fielders, boasting excellent defense and speed with a hint of power and solid plate approach. Murphy's realistic ceiling is average big-league catcher.

    But when it comes to the likelihood of reaching those levels, Murphy is the far safer bet. In fact, he was basically already there this year at age 24, albeit in a fairly small sample size as part-time backup for New York. Hicks has teased and tantalized with his talent, and it appeared in the middle of the summer that he might finally be breaking through, but he fell back into a slump over the final two months. And for all the overall progress that he did show, he was still lousy as ever swinging from the left side, batting just .206 with a .596 OPS versus righties. When you're an offensive liability against two-thirds of the league's pitchers, that's a problem.

    At this point, Hicks looks like a guy who simply won't hit enough to stick in a corner outfield spot, and center is spoken for here in Minnesota. If Byron Buxton isn't manning the position on Opening Day, he will be by year's end. Hicks is out of options next year meaning the Twins would have needed to roster him, and with so many other outfielders in the corner mix -- Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia, Max Kepler and now evidently Miguel Sano -- that obligation could have caused some issues next spring.

    Still young and undoubtedly skilled, Hicks has a chance to become a nice player. I'm not sure he would've had much of an opportunity anymore with the Twins, where he may have very well ended up being a fourth outfielder or part-time starter in 2016. In New York, where the outfield situation is in flux and openings are available, his window is more open both short-term and long-term. Plus, the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium should play up his moderate power and he'll face less pressure to produce in a stronger overall lineup. This is a good move for Hicks.

    Similarly, it's a good move for Murphy. The 24-year-old catcher was hopelessly blocked in New York -- now by veteran Brian McCann, who's signed through 2018, and down the road by 22-year-old Gary Sanchez, who is viewed as one of the game's better young upcoming backstops. In Minnesota, Murphy will have every opportunity to lock down a starting role, should he be up to the task. While his numbers might not pop out, I'm not sure his odds of becoming a serviceable starter are much lower than those of Hicks.

    Here's a good way to look at the situation: In the minors, Hicks put up an .808 OPS in 605 games while Murphy put up a .733 OPS in 451 games. This year in the majors, 10 catchers made 300 or more plate appearances and posted an OPS of .733 or above. Twenty-two corner outfielders made 300 or more plate appearances with an OPS of .808 or above. Murphy is the rarer commodity, especially when viewed through the lens of a Twins organization that was deep on OF talent and absurdly low on catching depth.

    Obviously we don't know what's going to happen going forward, but right now I view this as the Twins choosing Arcia over Hicks. At least one was bound to be gone by the end (or maybe even the beginning) of next season based on the outfield numbers crunch and the options situations. Hicks is coming off the better year and got a better return, whereas I still believe that Arcia offers more promise as a corner outfielder.

    So I like the decision. Hicks might yet turn into a heck of a player, but it's tough to see how it was going to happen here. Murphy is a welcome addition and bolsters the organization's catching depth immensely, even if he never develops into a quality regular.

    What do you think? Will trading Hicks come back to haunt Terry Ryan and the Twins?

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    ChrisKnutson

    ChrisKnutson 502

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

     

    Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

     

    Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

     

    Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

    Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

    Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

    Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

    You've just named three guys that are right up Ryan's alley to go after. 

    ChrisKnutson

    ChrisKnutson 502

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    You've just named three guys that are right up Ryan's alley to go after.

     

    Is that a good thing? I mean Chris Young isn't what he used to be but he's a solid veteran that at best could possibly have a season like Torii did (22 HR/81RBI/.240 BA except with better defense. And Austin Jackson to me seems primed to have a really good season something similar to his first few seasons with the Tigers.

     

    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Is that a good thing? I mean Chris Young isn't what he used to be but he's a solid veteran that at best could possibly have a season like Torii did (22 HR/81RBI/.240 BA except with better defense. And Austin Jackson to me seems primed to have a really good season something similar to his first few seasons with the Tigers.

    Please don't take offense.  It's not meant that way.

     

    If we like low cost/risk with low-medium reward type signings when we are supposedly shooting for a playoff spot and playoff success, then these three are the type you go after.  And these are always the type of guys Ryan signings.  It's safe.  If it doesn't work out, it didn't cost much and expectations were low anyway.  If it does he looks like a genius.  Win-Win.  At this point, I think bold is called for.  

     

    I do like that you have faith in Jackson though. I hope you are right.  I like him.

    Edited by jimmer
    Kwak

    Kwak 1,440

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

    Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

    Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

    Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

    Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

    Edited by Kwak
    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    true, but main point is we're overvaluing Hicks, after a .597 and .615 OPS in 2013 and 2014.  Then in 2015, he had the same numbers except for one very small sample in the month of July.  Other than that month he's a medicore to bad hitter.  So while John Ryan Murphy may not be much, it says something that the Yankees called him up as a 22 year old and he put up respectable numbers in 2015 as a backup catcher both offensively and defensively.  I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I think some need to step back and take a realistic look at Hicks.  

     

    Fair points that I don't disagree with. As I've said about Hicks, it's all on the come- flawed players ofttimes fix their flaws, especially if the underlying talent is there. He clearly has the tools and athleticism of a first round draft pick (he's one of only a very small handful of MLB OFers who have thrown 100 MPH relays- the Twins had another in Carlos Gomez). In 2015, Hicks also took some big steps forward in a level he basically skipped/failed at previously- AAA. I don't think anyone can deny that Hicks looked like a different player in 2015, both at the plate and in the field. 

     

    If this really was the best the market had to offer for Hicks alone, I just think it would have been a lot smarter to consider putting Hicks in a package together for one of the young studs who are blocked at the major league level, like Sanchez at NY, like McGuire at Pitt, like Contreras with the Cubs. Or take a deeper look at the Plouffe option.  

     

    In the meantime, the Twins could have seen if Hicks could continue to build on that value and potential... while Buxton and Kepler spent the opening months in Rochester to put on the finishing touches. As of right now, the opening day OF is in a major state of uncertainty and disarray.  The Twins gambled down this path over the last 3 seasons, I'm surprised they are willing to expose themselves again in this way so cavalierly.

    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    How can anyone say with certainty that Buxton won't have a great spring and jump into the CF spot?

     

    Just because some pundit or front office suit thinks that doesn't make it so.

     

    The Twins have been down the assumption path before and gotten burned.  Spring Training has historically been a very poor predictor for readiness levels (good or bad).

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,524

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

    All of those players could be had for a 1 year deal to rebuild their value. Once Buxton and Kepler are ready, they'll be on the team. I don't see the harm in targeting one of those guys to play until our crop is ready, and they take a back seat as the 4th OF

    DaveW

    DaveW 9,037

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Did you think we were going to make serious bids for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available?

    Every team short a starting catcher would have been at that auction.

    The difference between wieters and cespedes or heyward is like 3-4 more years and about 80 million dollars.

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

     

    I don't think the prospects will play that well to start.  One of those guys is a good fit in that they can give Buxton/Kepler a bit of extra time to develop in AAA and then get flipped for some marginal help at the deadline to make room for them.  You'll have a better result in 2016 doing that.  I don't think it's a bad idea at all if any of those guys would be up for a 1 year deal (just to caveat, I haven't at all researched whether they would be willing to do a 1 year deal.  I would be going after an OF that was).

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Also, as much as I hope Hicks succeeds, can you imagine how the NY media would handle him if he gave up switch hitting like he did with us in 2014?  I know he's going to have protection in that lineup, but I'm not sure he's going to do well in that pressure cooker that is NY.  Perhaps I'm wrong (and I hope I am), but it seems like there's a lot of angst about what will most likely be nothing.

    shs_59

    shs_59 100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Assuming we get Park, i see the rest of the-off-season going as follows:

     

    Plouffe Gets dealt to the Angels to Replace, FA David Freese at 3B

     

    For RP Cam Bedorsian and a C+ prospect.

     

    And we sign FA OF'er Gerardo Parra for 3 yrs and $30mm

     

    opening day lineup:

     

    Dozier- RH/2B

    **Parra-  SW/CF/RF**

    Mauer- LH/1B

    Sano - RH/3B

    Park -  RH/DH

    Rosario- LH/LF

    *Kepler/ Buxton  CF/RF**

    Murphy - RH/C

    Escobar- SW/SS

     

    (if you haven't noticed thats a lineup that might set the Strikeouts RECORD , especially if Oswaldo gets any regular playing time)

     

     

    Key Reserves:

     

    UTL Eduardo Nunez, C Kurt Suzuki , SS/CF Danny Santana

     

    I see one of Buxton or Kepler starting year with big club and the other in AAA untill June or so.... (unless Arcia mashes and keeps them both in AAA; NOT likely)

    By signing G. Parra the Twins have the luxury of playing him in which ever spot isnt taken by the prospect.

     

    Kwak

    Kwak 1,440

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I don't think the prospects will play that well to start.  One of those guys is a good fit in that they can give Buxton/Kepler a bit of extra time to develop in AAA and then get flipped for some marginal help at the deadline to make room for them.  You'll have a better result in 2016 doing that.  I don't think it's a bad idea at all if any of those guys would be up for a 1 year deal (just to caveat, I haven't at all researched whether they would be willing to do a 1 year deal.  I would be going after an OF that was).

    Which was implied in my post.  There are (at least) two problems with this philosophy:  signing  a mediocre veteran delays the required learning curve of the "prospect"--he will have to overcome the transition to the majors anyway;  and if the "veteran" is half-decent--he gets extended, often for multi-years.  But the veteran is still only mediocre and the prospects are stacking-up  in the minors.  If the "prospects" are always "not quite ready", maybe part of the fault is in the management in charge of the system--and that's where the change is required.  Buying the safety blanket is a CYA device,  ownership has to remove the training wheels and demand results.

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Which was implied in my post.  There are (at least) two problems with this philosophy:  signing  a mediocre veteran delays the required learning curve of the "prospect"--he will have to overcome the transition to the majors anyway;  and if the "veteran" is half-decent--he gets extended, often for multi-years.  But the veteran is still only mediocre and the prospects are stacking-up  in the minors.  If the "prospects" are always "not quite ready", maybe part of the fault is in the management in charge of the system--and that's where the change is required.  Buying the safety blanket is a CYA device,  ownership has to remove the training wheels and demand results.

     

    I would definitely target a higher ceiling type vet on a make good deal in that scenario, but I do disagree with the premise that this will necessarily delay the learning curve.  Kepler has no AAA experience, Buxton has a few at bats there.  Buxton was clearly not ready for ML and could learn some things that would allow him to do better in MLB once he's there.  I really don't buy the idea that letting Hicks spend 2013 in AAA would have necessarily pushed back his MLB results.  I think it would have likely led to a much better 2014 (and probably 2015) in the majors had he spent 2013 in AAA.  He wasn't ready. 

     

    I also think that said high ceiling vet (unless he's doing phenominally well) would be flipped at the deadline to make room for whatever AAA OFer that has earned the job. 



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