Can the Minnesota Twins Piggy-back Their Way to a Great Rotation?

If Hill is indeed ready to start the season in July, that would presumably leave a rotation of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Hill, and Homer Bailey. That might mean the end of Jhoulys Chacín (or possibly a bullpen role) and would leave young, but ready starters like Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe on the outside looking in (either in the ‘pen or on the taxi squad). Then there’s Michael Pineda who has 39 remaining games out of a 60-game suspension to serve. He’s all but guaranteed a rotation spot once he’s eligible to return and it’s still possible that the MLB might reduce the length of suspensions to correspond to the shortened season.

Regardless of how it all shakes out it seems that Minnesota will have more starters than rotation spots. There are numerous ways around this “problem” as guys like Dobnak and Thorpe can still be optioned or would probably be content with bullpen roles as long as it meant making the team. However, with Odorizzi, Hill, and Bailey becoming free agents after the season the Twins may want to get additional looks at their young starters. And if everyone stays healthy up until Pineda’s return, there’s going to be a crunch anyway.

While the Twins have done a great job of putting together a collection of quality arms, none of the starters are without their flaws. One potential solution to the quantity problem could also improve the quality of the rotation. By pairing or piggy-backing certain pitchers in the rotation, Minnesota could improve the overall strength of the rotation by reducing the third time through the order “penalty” that haunts many starters. If we take a closer look at the Twins rotation there are several candidates who would likely benefit from shorter outings.

Here’s each potential starter’s career OPS against for their first, second, and third times through the batting order:

Both Berrios and Hill have remained solid the third time through the order over the duration of their careers. As the “staff ace” it makes sense to let Berrios be. With Hill one could make an argument for limiting his innings due to his injury history, but his innings will be limited by the short season anyway, so he could easily be left in his traditional role.

The remainder of the rotation make good piggy-back candidates. Odorizzi has been terrible the third time through and tends to work up high pitch counts anyway, so he’s a no-brainer. Maeda’s a good fit as well as he tends to fall victim to the long-ball the later he pitches into games. Bailey’s strong finish after making adjustments in 2019 give reason for optimism, but he’s still the weakest link of this group, so getting him out of games sooner rather than later seems wise. Whenever Pineda makes it back from his suspension he could also benefit from avoiding a third trip through the order.

So what would a piggy-back rotation look like?

If the Twins should opt to go this route it’s likely to fluctuate based on performance and health, but for fun let’s assume everyone is healthy. The rotation could look something like this:

SP1: Berrios

SP2: Hill

SP3: Maeda/Thorpe

SP4: Odorizzi/Dobnak

SP5: Pineda/Bailey

The combinations could obviously be altered in whatever fashion the coaching staff/front office deems appropriate, but assuming health, the bodies are there (just to a lesser extent before Pineda’s return). Again, a lot could change based on performance and injuries but piggy-backing to some degree would seem to mitigate the third-time penalty while helping the bullpen to remain fresh and effective as well. Rocco Baldelli would also have the pieces in place to make quick pitching changes if any of the starting pitchers are ineffective.

What do you think? Is piggy-backing an effective way to use the plentitude of starters the Twins possess or is there a better way? Please leave your comments below!

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