Barreling Up: Quantifying the Power Potential of the 2020 Minnesota Twins Via Statcast

Go Twins!

So this year expect 3 30+ HR hitters. (Donaldson, Sano, and Cruz). Garver can make it with enough ABs. And we will have atleast 7 hitters with 20+ HRs. Polanco and possibly Buxton can do it too but best not to bank on it. That is what I am taking away from this

But let's dump Jake Cave from the 26-man roster...because...well, pretty much any free agent we could pick up would be better than him...not to mention about a half dozen guys within our own organization who have options. Right?

 

Also, wouldn't read too much into the Avila number. 2019 was an extremely small sample size for him (only 200 or so PA). Although his bat will play up...as long as Garver is healthy...Avila can basically avoid left-handed pitching entirely, as was the case last year for him with the Diamondbacks.

 

Nice article. Interesting. What has never made sense to me is how a guy like Sano can be among the league leaders in swings-and-misses (I presume this to be true)...and also right at the top of barrel percentage. How does that work? You frequently miss the ball entirely, but when you make contact, your contact is more precise than everyone else? I suspect that what's closer to the truth is that 'ordinary' players often put the barrel on the ball, but don't get the results to qualify under this metric. Meanwhile, Sano probably leads the universe in not getting the middle of the barrel to the ball...and having the result still meet the mph and launch angle criteria.

 

I would guess that there are two types of hitters than fit at the top of this chart. Great hitters (like Cruz), and ridiculously strong hitters, like Sano. In other words...this could get even better for Sano.

Anyone surprised by Miguel Sano’s ranking hasn’t been watching Miguel Sano.

 

Thankfully the FO sees the potential and didn’t want to dump him for nothing like a lot of TD members.

Nice article. Interesting. What has never made sense to me is how a guy like Sano can be among the league leaders in swings-and-misses (I presume this to be true)...and also right at the top of barrel percentage. How does that work? You frequently miss the ball entirely, but when you make contact, your contact is more precise than everyone else? I suspect that what's closer to the truth is that 'ordinary' players often put the barrel on the ball, but don't get the results to qualify under this metric. Meanwhile, Sano probably leads the universe in not getting the middle of the barrel to the ball...and having the result still meet the mph and launch angle criteria.

His numbers are what they are because he swings the bat really damn hard. He’s not getting cheated when he’s ahead in the count. Thus, a lot of swings and misses. He doesn’t have some inherent flaw relative to other MLBers that cause him to swing and miss more. The nature of swing is all or nothing. The numbers make total sense. I’d wager that the same pattern would hold for guys like Killebrew, McGuire, and various other prolific power hitters throughout history.

 

His barrel percentage is high when making contact because he’s also a really damn good hitter, which many seem to refuse to believe. It’s possible to swing and miss a lot and still be a great hitter when you’re taking a certain approach. He’s not just getting by on his strength, which seems to be a prevailing assumption (there are a lot of incredibly strong people in Major League Baseball, newsflash, and nobody hits the ball harder).

 

Case in point, your conclusion of, “the opposite of what the numbers say is true, and he sucks at barreling the ball.....but somehow still hits it harder than everyone in the planet.” That’s not really how a baseball bat works, no matter how strong you are.

 

His numbers are what they are because he swings the bat really damn hard. He’s not getting cheated when he’s ahead in the count. Thus, a lot of swings and misses. He doesn’t have some inherent flaw relative to other MLBers that cause him to swing and miss more. The nature of swing is all or nothing. The numbers make total sense. I’d wager that the same pattern would hold for guys like Killebrew, McGuire, and various other prolific power hitters throughout history.

His barrel percentage is high when making contact because he’s also a really damn good hitter, which many seem to refuse to believe. It’s possible to swing and miss a lot and still be a great hitter when you’re taking a certain approach. He’s not just getting by on his strength, which seems to be a prevailing assumption (there are a lot of incredibly strong people in Major League Baseball, newsflash, and nobody hits the ball harder).

Case in point, your conclusion of, “the opposite of what the numbers say is true, and he sucks at barreling the ball.....but somehow still hits it harder than everyone in the planet.” That’s not really how a baseball bat works, no matter how strong you are.

Is that what I said? Not even in the universe of what I said.

 

If I don't call Sano a great hitter...yet...it's not quite the same as saying I don't think he has value, is it? He does. Quit a bit. Meanwhile, he still has his pitch recognition issues and he still cheats at times to protect the inner half....those challenges contribute to the swings and misses...not just "swinging hard" (Sano's a lower-half guy in terms of generating the power).

 

The puchline to my post was that Sano's results can get even better.  It's a function of the immense power combined with material opportunities for improvement. It's the opposite of a bad thing to say about Sano.