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    The Twins Have Got to Make Their Loaded Farm System Count


    Lucas Seehafer

    The Minnesota Twins entered the 2021 season with a minor league system considered by many to be among the top 15 in all of baseball. Headlined by the likes of Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach, the Twins affiliates boasted lineups filled with athletes who projected to one day be big league-quality bats with a couple of intriguing arms sprinkled throughout the minor leagues.

    Then the 2021 season happened.

    Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer | 2021 Mar 3

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    Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff were consensus top 100 prospects. However, outfielder Trevor Larnach, catcher Ryan Jeffers, and pitchers Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic also found their names among the league's most exciting future players depending on which prospect rankings site one preferred.

    Royce Lewis lost a second straight campaign after he tore his ACL. Kirilloff, Larnach and Jeffers graduated thanks to a bevy of injuries and poor play from the MLB club. Duran and Balazovic missed time at the beginning of the season with arm injuries and slow starts. (Balazovic has turned it on as of late, while Duran was shut down with an elbow injury.)

    The sheen on the Twins' top 12-15 farm system became far duller by mid-June despite the encouraging progress shown by the likes of utility infielder Jose Miranda and pitcher Josh Winder.

    Before Friday's trade deadline, the Twins' system lacked a level of potential high-end talent that most of the teams inside the top 10 had, and some teams, like the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers, had in spades. However, that all changed when the Twins dealt Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for shortstop Austin Martin and pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. 

    Martin is a consensus top 60 prospect who hits for average, gets on base at a high clip, and has projectable power, despite his low home run output this year at Double-A. His long-term fit at shortstop is dubious, with most experts believing he'll eventually find a home at either second base or center field. Woods Richardson is a consensus top 75 prospect who boasts four legit pitches and substantial strikeout numbers but struggles with command, though, to be fair, what 20-year-old doesn't? 

    When paired alongside pitchers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, who the Twins acquired from the Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz, the Twins added four prospects to their top 10 and two to their top five over the last two weeks to more than replenish their future talent cupboard. Their farm system metamorphosed from good to excellent, from deep to DEEP, from top 15 in the league to arguably top 5 in a brief amount of time.

    But a stockpile of minor league talent does nothing for a franchise unless it's developed adequately and positively impacts the major league team or tapped into to bring in quality MLB talent. No team gets to hang a banner for having the best farm system in place. 

    Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count.

    The Twins possess the most depth at starting pitcher, with the majority of their top 20 prospects - Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Duran, Winder, Ryan, Strotman, Blayne Enlow, Chase Petty, Cole Sands, and Chris Vallimont - having the potential to one day slot into the team's starting rotation. 

    Of course, not all of them will, but the more fish in the barrel, the more likely one is to snag a catch. The Twins need to develop at least two or three of their starting pitching prospects into legitimate No. 2 or 3 starters. They would also be wise to dangle a few of them as trade bait to bring in impact MLB talent, particularly if the likes of Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Jorge Polanco find themselves on new teams in the coming years.

    However, their talent extends beyond the mound. Miranda has exploded onto the scene and is far more likely to be considered a top 100 prospect now than entering the season. Similarly, relatively unknown prospects Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Jermaine Palacios, and Yunior Severino have had strong seasons, boosting their prospect status.

    Despite trading the best arm the franchise has employed since Johan Santana, the Twins still see themselves as a team that can contend for a playoff spot in the not-too-distant future, and perhaps as early as next year.

    "The future is very bright," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters following the Twins' trade of Berrios. "We have the pieces already here that we're trying to supplement right now with some of the moves that we're making in order to get to a point where we are a playoff baseball team again. And I don't think we're very far away."

    Falvey largely echoed Baldelli's sentiment.

    "Our view of this is sustainability," Falvey said of the trade. "[This year] has not been what we wanted. But we still feel, even as Jose walked out the door here, and that's not easy, don't get me wrong, that we feel we have a lot of talent in that clubhouse coming back in '22 and '23 and beyond and so how do you build a sustainable group? You've got to retool it sometimes."

    The only way the Twins can find themselves back in the playoff hunt next year and beyond is if the franchise capitalizes on their current wealth of young assets. Despite their current 100-loss pace, doing so is not an unrealistic goal. They simply need to go and make it happen.

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    On 7/31/2021 at 6:16 PM, DocBauer said:

    One thing I feel is so overlooked is the results of 2019-2020 with a rookie manager and a mostly new coaching staff. ROOKIE manager Baldelli lead this team to a pair of outstanding seasons. Wes Johnson helped make immediate differences both years for the pitching staff. Rowson was so well regarded as a hitting coach he got a promotion to bench coach for another team, Marlins IIRC. Shelton was so highly regarded as a career milb coach/manager and his job as bench coach for the Twins he got the Pirates job and might have been the Mets coach, again IIRC, before controversy over Houston changed the complexion of things. Jeremy Heffner was the Twins ASSISTANT/BP coach before being hired away by the Mets as their primary PC. Sawyer came in and not only changed how our catchers set up to receive the ball, but also changed how they got batting practice, before they were worn out from just catching everyone.

    Mike Bell seemed like a really smart hire as a Shelton replacement before never assuming the role due to cancer and his terribly unfortunate early demise. 

    There is a very recent history, despite one aweful and disappointing year, that maybe this FO knows how to change things. They have an almost immediate history of finding high coaching talent good enough to be poached by the rest of MLB. Past players have commented on how the NEW Twins way is about individual development vs some old school formula. 

    And I am not picking on LastOnePicked or anyone else. We all have the rights to our opinions. Period! I just get frustrated that "Twins suck", "Rocco sucks", "FO suck" when we are talking about a horrible, disappointing season. It absolutely, positively, "sucks". But sometimes s**t happens, even when you least expect it. 

    And blame is easy. It's what happens tomorrow that is important!

    Me....stepping off my stool.

    Docbauer: One big disappointment has been hitting coach. Sano has reverted back to old ways. Guys in the booth see it. All say until he uses all fields he will remain the strike out king. Larnach is now striking out at an alarming rate. Where is the coach?

    Plus not one of the call-ups know how to play a fence! Not Larnach, not Centirino and not our first basemen. None seem to have been taught to find the fence with their off arm and then find the ball! Where is St Paul coaching on that? And why doesn't Rocco at least address the poor fielding one in awhile? Just keeps blaming injuries and staring into his binder in the dugout! Stop that. Get mad once in awhile. Let players know there are consequences for poor play in the field. It appears to be a country club atmosphere!

    I'm not quite as optimistic as others, mostly because I just don't see the pitching coming around. I think we have the pieces to keep a pretty strong offense around but it looks like we have a bunch of backend/AAAA arms. I'm done with the Dobnaks, Jaxs, Smeltzers. Woods-Richardson might become as good as Berrios, although that's unlikely.

    But it also seems that the Twins have changed their pitching philosophy so we need a pitching staff where we need to have a bunch of effective bullpen arms that we don't really have to go along with a the five inning starter.

    A few things...

    1. I can't think of a successful team built on a farm system alone.  The Rays, the team name people throw out there when this topic comes up, has a team of players that mostly came via trade.  The Twins teams in the 00s transformed into playoff teams only after Terry Ryan began making a few smart trades.  
    2. Don't forget -- a "farm system" is full of players who cannot play at the MLB level.  With some luck, a handful of them will make it to the MLB and a handful of the handful will have successful MLB careers.  Any team that leans too much on its farm system is going to fail, it's going to become a AAAA team.  We've seen this play out before.

    The trade deadline deals the Twins made suggest to me that the Twins are not going to change course drastically when it comes to the mix of home-grown v. traded players v. free agent signings.  Good.  

    30 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

    I'm not quite as optimistic as others, mostly because I just don't see the pitching coming around. I think we have the pieces to keep a pretty strong offense around but it looks like we have a bunch of backend/AAAA arms. I'm done with the Dobnaks, Jaxs, Smeltzers. Woods-Richardson might become as good as Berrios, although that's unlikely.

    But it also seems that the Twins have changed their pitching philosophy so we need a pitching staff where we need to have a bunch of effective bullpen arms that we don't really have to go along with a the five inning starter.

    Agreed, I remember when Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Gonslaves, Thorpe, Enlow, Alcala, Jay, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge just to name a few were going to be the key to sustained success.
    And how there was a riches of short stop prospects, Lewis, Goron, Javier, Severino, Cavaco, Holland.

    What I see from the current group is a bunch trade-able prospects, but of course the problem is they are all getting real close or already required to be added to the 40 man roster.

    I hear a lot of people talking about doing it the Tampa way. And yes they trade stars for prospects (Snell, Archer, Longoria, Shields, etc..) but they also do a great job of internally scouting their farm system and making decisions on their prospects and trading them to get current help, or clear 40 man roster, or re-tool with some younger prospects as to not clog up their 40 man.

    Example they traded two pitchers to the Twins one on their 40 and one that has to be added at the end of the year for a really good player that will help them this year and then probably won't be with them next year, I would assumed they deemed the two pitchers they traded as one is probably a AAAA pitcher and the other because of only two pitches ends up in the pen, or maybe a starter but will take more time develop thus clogging up the 40. In the end it is a win, win, win for Tampa, help this year, cleared up three 40 man spaces, thus allowing them to possibly trade another good player (or sign) for a few more prospects to reload the farm.

    Imagine any of the last three years the Twins trading two prospects similar to Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman for a short term rental. First IMO I couldn't see the twins doing that (I mean since they didn't) and imagine the comments on here about how they are giving up future success and two probably cheap, good rotation players.

     




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