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    Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?


    Nick Nelson
    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

    Twins Video

    'It does suck.'

    Brian Dozier was blunt in expressing his feelings about the front office's deadline approach, with the decisions to flip Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler symbolizing a white flag of sorts.

    Dozier's frustration is understandable, the culmination of a career's worth of surrender. The clock is ticking on the veteran second baseman if he's ever going to accomplish anything with the team that drafted and developed him.

    Since he arrived in the majors in 2012, Dozier has been party to an awful lot of losing. He hasn't sniffed the playoffs in five seasons, and that will now more than likely extend to six. Next year is his last under contract with Minnesota, and given the organization's depth in young middle infielders, it seems unlikely they'll pony up to keep him around.

    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are taking a pragmatic big-picture view, but to Dozier, the big picture is this: he's been doing his part – and then some – for half of a decade, and he's barely experienced a hint of serious contention. This year the team spent much of the first half in first place, and made a move toward going for it, then turned around and traded away their rental starter and best reliever.

    Joe Mauer hasn't been as vocal (say what??), but he can certainly relate to Dozier's discontent. Mauer is the only longer-tenured Twin, whose career at least merits Hall of Fame arguments, and he has not one single postseason victory to show for it. On the one hand, his journey as a hometown kid turned MVP is the stuff of storybooks. On the other hand, the wasting of his generational talents by a team that could never build enough around him to go anywhere... it's kinda heartbreaking.

    Of course, as far as 2017 is concerned, Dozier and Mauer would both be wise to look inward before directing their angst at the front office. They've been having perfectly solid years, but the Twins need more from them than that, and they have to recognize it. Dozier and Mauer are supposed to be the experienced, veteran cornerstones of the league's youngest lineup, but each has been downright ordinary.

    Dozier has been his usual self: one of the game's better power-hitting middle infielders, and a fine defender, but not an upper-echelon player. Last year he was vastly better with the bases empty than with men on, and this year the contrast has only been sharper (stats entering Sunday):

    Bases Empty: 295 PA, .268/.342/.517, 17 HR

    Runners On: 169 PA, .208/.302/.318, 2 HR

    Dozier's production with no ducks shouldn't be downplayed, because everything helps. But he hasn't risen to the occasion enough. Overall his performance doesn't amount to anything special; he ranks 13th out of 22 MLB-qualified second basemen in OPS, 14th in WAR.

    And Mauer? It's still a pleasure to watch the man take an at-bat, and he's been exquisite with the mitt at first, but his offensive results are as pedestrian as ever. He ranks 22nd among 25 qualified MLB first basemen in OPS. He's still a nice enough piece to have in the lineup, but more of a role player than a game-changer, and that doesn't do much for this team right now.

    Dozier and Mauer have been in the Twins organization for a combined 24 years, and it's commendable if they are adamant about winning before their tenures simultaneously come to an end next year. Is that realistic, though? And does their presence prevent the team from moving forward with a blueprint that, by necessity, doesn't include them?

    Barring an improbable late-season charge this year, the 2018 season is shaping up as the first in Minnesota's true winning cycle. But for Dozier and Mauer, it will mean a lot more. Will they be able to make a run with the rising core before departing?


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    To be blunt and to the point.  Yes and no.  Mauer is what he is at this point but he's trying.  Brian on the other hand, just shut your pie hole already and play ball.  When your no longer playing and in a front office management position then you can talk.  Until then, sit down and shut up.  

    Edited by laloesch

     

    To be blunt and to the point.  Yes and no.  Mauer is what he is at this point but he's trying.  Brian on the other hand, just shut your pie hole already and play ball.  When your no longer playing and in a front office management position then you can talk.  Until then, sit down and shut up.  

    The company I work for encourages employee empowerment. The idea is not always practical but does have some real merit.

    I am going to interpret Nick's question as "Can we win a World Series with Mauer and/or Dozier?".  To examine this I am going to first look at how they are doing this year against their peers at their positions.

     

    Dozier OPS - .799
    Average 2B OPS - .734

     

    Mauer OPS - .733
    Average 1B OPS - .819

     

    Based on this I would say that Dozier is an above average 2B and Mauer is a well below average 1B.

     

    Next I am going to look at the World Series winners from the past 15 years to see what kind of production they got out of their 1B and 2B positions.

     

    1B

    WS1B

     
    2B

    WS2B

     

    As you can see Dozier is effectively an average World Series winning 2B and has a better OPS than 8 of the 15 World Series winning 2B over the past 15 years.

     

    You can also see that Mauer is performing significantly below what the average World Series winning 1B has done the past 15 years and his OPS is .048 points worse than the worst 1B in this list.

     

    In short, I think that Dozier produces enough to be a 2B on a World Series winner and I think Mauer cannot be the starter at 1B on a World Series winner.

     

     

    Very interesting post! And I wonder sometimes about Dozier's numbers in regard to RISP. Are his low numbers a result of SSS hitting leadoff with poor hitters in front of him? Or is he truly bad in this scenario? Is don't have numbers either way, but wondering.

    Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

     

    It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

     

    There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

     

    Career: .767 OPS

    RISP: .769 OPS

     

    Um. So yeah.

     

    He's 9th in WAR out of 11 AL 2nd baseman this year.  Your 2014-2017 sample size uses all counting stats, in which he's one of only 4 players to play 500 games (he's at 569).  

     

    You don't extend someone because of past performance, you extend based on the future, and he'll be entering his age 32 season when his contract is up

     

    My sample shows consistency and reliability. Yours shows a 4 month snapshot which is already wrong after less than 3 days. Dozier is now 7th in WAR (not 9th) for AL 2B. Ahead of such scrubs as Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis. League-wide, if you're only interested in WAR, Dozier is ahead of the likes of Adam Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew Benintendi, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Yasiel Puig, and Albert Pujols.

     

    Dozier (31 next May) will cost $9m next year. A bargain. Pedroia (34) will cost $16m and Kipnis (30) will cost $13.6m.

    Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

     

    It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

     

    There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

     

    Career: .767 OPS

    RISP: .769 OPS

     

    Um. So yeah.

    No, not a weird narrative on the board. One poster who doesn't like Dozier.

    "Dozier has been his usual self: one of the game's better power-hitting middle infielders, and a fine defender, but not an upper-echelon player."

     

    Did I hear you correctly?

     

    Dozier has averaged over 20 HRs for the past 4 years as a middle infielder and hit 42 last year and he is not an upper echelon player?  Who else hit 42 HRs last year? Since when does being in the top 5 or so HR hitters out of 650 players make you not upper echelon? 

     

    Dozier can't hit with men on base? Really?  Did it ever occur to you that pitchers are extra careful pitching to Doz when men are on base?  And his at bats when hitting 3rd or 4th is too small a sample size to draw conclusions.Typecasting him as a leadoff hitter is silly. He is a power hitter, guys. And it is dumb to bat your best HR hitter leadoff. Rickey Henderson hit a lot of lead off homers, but he also stole 100 bases. Of course Rickey hit leadoff. Dozier should hit 3rd ahead of Sano and after Mauer.

     

    As for can the Twins win with these guys.... that premise is insulting. Mauer's skills are eroding, but he is still a top clutch hitter. 

     

    Doze and Mauer are NOT the problems on this team. 

     

     

    Edited by kellyvance

     

    As you can see Dozier is effectively an average World Series winning 2B and has a better OPS than 8 of the 15 World Series winning 2B over the past 15 years.

     

    So, tell us about Lombardozzi...

    Who the second basemen were in World Series winners means less than who their first 3 starting pitchers, their last 3 bullpen pitchers, and hitters 3-6 were.

     

    Irrelevant. 

     

    BTW, WAR, wRC+, wOBA put Dozier as the 10th-13th best second baseman in the league.  This is right at the middle quadrant.




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