The Lockout Diaries: Week 12

Money ruins a lot of things.  Baseball is a good example of that.  Why can't these rich people just be content being rich and not always needing more and more and more.

Sad, Nick!  Time to make certain my MiLBtv subscription renewed.  Let's go Saints!

The players showed in 2020 they would stick to their guns no matter what.  The owners took the covid year losses and went on business as usual.  If they all decide to recoup these losses, they could adjust their free agent spending over the next 2-3 years.  115 players made more than $10M last year.  IDK exactly how many were past their arbitration years but it was probably 90%.  Those players were paid a collective $2.13B.  It would take a couple years for the owners to adjust but it is completely within their power to recoup these losses.  

A 200K increase in minimum salary won't prohibit a deal.  That's roughly $80M but that's not the ask for prearb increases.  They also are demanding another $115M in bonus pool + arbitration for 80% of 3rd year players which is another roughly $80M.  I would be the owners would go for the $200K or 36% but the ask is well over 100% for prearb players.  How it's divided up does not change the collective amount.

My guess is that the two biggest holdups are the 80% arbitration and the increase in the CBT threshold is the biggest holdup.  All of the teams outside to top 20 revenue markets have to be pretty tired of the advantage held by the top revenue markets.  Those owners are not going to allow that gap to be increased.  The arbitration demand completely changes the compensation framework not just for 3rd year players but all players.  That alone would be an enormous ask.  Combine it with all the other demands and we have a stalemate.

MLB is in big big trouble if they don't come to an amicable agreement and soon!  I don't see the beginning of the season being spared.  They are already down in the pecking order in terms of popularity.  They truly could care less about the fans.  Great thing that we have excellent town ball in Minnesota.  Super popular where I live.  

"MLB is clear on this point: If there isn’t a deal by Monday, games will be cancelled and will not be made up. The season will be less than 162 games and players will not be paid for a full season, no matter what". I don't know about this. If the games are not played because the owners don't allow the players to play, I think a good lawyer could argue that since it is not their fault, they still should be paid. But I am not a good lawyer, so there goes my argument.

Great comments Nick.  I am already sick and tired of this public bickering on how to split billions in revenue.  MLB has been in trouble for the past few years with lower attendance and tv viewership.  Not to mention the mockery this once great game has become.  To lose any regular season games shows me that neither side realizes, or cares, about how very fragile their diminishing fan base is.  I for one anyway is just about done with MLB.  After 60 years of proudly supporting MLB there is not much more left of the once heralded " grand old game"

I new the deadline thing was coming, and I knew the players were going to push back on the cancelled games.  To me, if the deadline passes, we will see many games missed because the players will continue to push to get as many games in, and owners will continue to use the loss of games as leverage to try and break the players to settle.  Each passing day will cause more anger and will push the sides further apart, unless the public statements are just smoke.