Emmanuel Rodriguez, Miguel Sano, and the Dangers of a Three True Outcomes Prospect

[Trov]

I have not had a chance to watch E-Rod since he came up, but I believe what he will need to do is have a plan up and there and learn to adjust the plan as pitchers adjust too.  Yes, if he takes hittable strikes early in counts with the plan to just go deep into counts, that could become an issue.  However, if he takes the pitches on the edges that will not result in strong hits anyways, looking for a good pitch to hit that is a different issue.  

Yes, MLB pitchers are much better at spotting the corners, and those are generally where most hitters are weakest.  However, if you know or at least look for a particular pitch in a particular area you can increase your chance of hitting it hard, as long as you are willing to not do too much with it. 

For example, if you look for a fastball outside corner, even if it is low and away, if you are planning it to be there and look to drive oppo you can do damage, but if you are looking for fastball inner half and swing at a pitch low and away looking to pull it you will get out most of the time. 

That is where a plan and patience can go a long way, provided you work the plan and adjust as needed. I remember for years Buck was a guy that his plan was see ball hit ball, and would chase sliders low and away with regularity.  I would see some at-bats where they would throw 3 straight and he would chase all 3.  Then sometimes he would take one and they would throw a 4th he would chase.  Once a great while they would throw the fast ball low and away and he would sometimes hit it but it would keep him guessing. 

The point is, if E-Rod does not take meatball pitches early in counts, but only corner pitches he is not looking for then I am not worried in the long run.  But if he takes fastballs down the middle just to go deep into counts that could become an issue.

[Linus]

More broadly, I think this approach to hitting has just been taken too far. Trying to pull and elevate the ball is not a new concept. I mean Harmon Killebrew wasn’t out there trying to shoot singles to right field. I just think it is being taken to the extreme by hitters who aren’t good enough to pull it off. I think Buck would be a more productive hitter if he hit some outside pitches to right / center and he has crazy good natural power. Same thing with Royce and others. The Twins organizational hitting philosophy clearly encourages hitters to try and yank everything to the pull side. Their overall results developing hitters would suggest it’s not the solution. 

[JADBP]

On 9/19/2026 at 7:04 AM, Linus said:

 tThis is an interesting topic that should be expanded to a broader discussion of hitting philosophies. As far as EmRod goes, he will never walk at the rate he did in the minors. MLB pitchers will make him swing the bat. Then the question becomes does he increase his contact rate or does he follow the Julien road. He appears to be a plus defender so that helps. 

He is a fine defender with a far above average arm.  I see no real shortcomings with him in any OF position, other than short on experience at the MLB level.  He is definitely not a Sano in the field.

I would expect some regression to something more like maybe a .240-.250 hitter but with 20-25 HR's a year.  His power is totally legit.  He's gonna bang in a lot of runs.  He's a keeper. 

I think a better comparison is Lewis,  not Sano.  Sano would be his absolute floor an an MLBer.

Sano was a flame out--really, a true 2 outcome player--Strikeout or Hit For An Out, which he did in almost 70% of the time!). 

Sano played in 722 games with 2954 AB's.  Of those, 1078 were strike outs, over 36%!  He tllied 602 hits, about 20% of PA's.  He had only 345 walks.   So, lets look at his three true outcomes:

HR:  5.5%

BB:  11.6%

K:  36.5%

(total of 

Look at it another way, 

Hit: 20 %

BB:  11.6%

K:   36.5%

Hit for out:  31.9%

Either way, he just didn't score enough offense.  If he didn't strike out, most of those other AB's were pop outs to LF or IF groundouts.  He just wasn't generating offense.  On average, hit a HR every 4.4 games.   And, he was only on the field for 80 games a season, on average.  Reminds me more of Royce Lewis.  

And, Sano had a cannon of arm...good for when he actually got to and caught the ball...otherwise, was below average anywhere in the field. 

We have to give Emma some time to adjust to MLB life and far better pitching, so, let's talk in a year or two.  But he's got the goods to be a serious RBI contributor on the team and he's good in the field.  I just hope he doesn't take as long as Lewis to become his true self.