2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

@Riverbrian I agree with most of what you said.  The biggest point is what is the difference between a top 10 prospect vs a top 50. To me it more comes from what level of prospect. 
 

There is a fangraphs article from earlier this year.  A level  65 prospect has a 33% chance of becoming a star for positional player and it falls off immensely.  For pitchers it’s much more equal, 25% for a 60- 50 level prospect it’s effectively the same chances of a star with a higher flameout rate of the lower level prospect. Other than Lewis and Walker we haven’t really had an elite prospect. That’s been the knock on the system, decent depth not the elite player. 
 

If you want a hot take, I think Correa was a horrible influence for young players. I think his focus was swing as hard as you can and forget about being a balanced hitter. Miranda had 1 elite year, but is based on contact and spraying the ball, not power. Suddenly Correa becomes his best friend and he is trying to crush and pull everything and he completely lost his identity and confidence. I see the same issues with Lewis. When he came up he was a balanced hitter. He had some success crushing balls inside, then has completely lost the ability to hit an outside pitch. 
 

I know the game is difficult and there will be flameouts. I have always said it’s about increasing your odds.  Same as the draft. For me there are 2 elite shortstops right now and I hope we get 1 of them. 

I bolded the part that I really really agree with it. I believe that you increase those odds through numbers and that's why I want the system flooded right now instead of just betting on Lewis and Lee to be who we they think they should be. 

The one thing that has always stuck in my head and can't get out of my head. How does opportunity influence the fangraph numbers? How does pre-determination influence those numbers. The 65 Prospect gets chance after chance to be one of the 33%. The Twins are going to give Lewis chance after chance and they will suffer his failures. The 55 prospect who goes through a Royce Lewis type stretch will not get chance after chance. He is simply pushed aside for Ty France. 

There is no guarantees period but I'd rather the Twins increase their odds by just simply staying away from Ty France type hole fillers.  

[bunsen82]

A team like the Twins will always have 1-2 fillers. The issue is you need 5-6 good hitters with 1-2 really good or elite to be successful. How do we find 5-6 good hitters. Buxton can be a complimentary piece likely a really good 5-6 hitter or 2 hitter if could increase his OBP. Keaschall has the makings of a really good hitter. Now we will see how pitchers attack him.  So we need 4 more.  Can Lee or Lewis or Wallner (he is the closest, but too much swing and miss) develop, does it come from prospect pool. I think Lee has a better chance at becoming a good to very good hitter than Lewis in my opinion.  Now as you find more good hitters it takes less pressure off the other players and gives them more opportunities. I still stand by the more at bats any player can get, the more opportunity they have to figure things out. The Twins issue at the end of the season was we were starting 3-4 fillers each game.