More meaningful innings for Thielbar?

[John Bonnes]

Ron Gardenhire has announced that Case Fien and Caleb Thielbar will take over the 8th inning duty's.

Gardenhire also stated that Duensing and Burton will be taking a mental break???

 

Per La Velle E Neil

 

Are we sure Gardy didn't say he was giving himself (and all of us) a mental break from having to watch Duensing and Burton in the 8th? I would applaud that.

 

And I applaud this move - but it is a little weird how it's playing out. Usually, this kind of change happens organically, and someone like Thielbar is put into higher and higher leverage innings. If that was happening, I didn't notice. Now, suddenly, he's the setup guy?

[Nick Nelson]

You know for sure that Duensing is better? I'd be interested in why you believe that.

 

Duensing has been a high-quality MLB reliever for about five years -- at times one of the game's elite lefty specialists. Thielbar was pitching for the St. Paul Saints two years ago.

 

I'm not trying to bash Thielbar at all, because I think he's a great story and he certainly appears capable of sticking around as a big-league player. But people are losing sight of the forest for the trees here based on 16 innings of effective pitching.

[ThePuck]

Duensing has been a high-quality MLB reliever for about five years -- at times one of the game's elite lefty specialists. Thielbar was pitching for the St. Paul Saints two years ago.

 

I'm not trying to bash Thielbar at all, because I think he's a great story and he certainly appears capable of sticking around as a big-league player. But people are losing sight of the forest for the trees here based on 16 innings of effective pitching.

 

Yes, he had a bad 2010 so Milwaukee let him go. He was picked up by us the same season he went to independent ball. Currently, the only thing we can say for sure is that we haven't seen enough of Thielbar in the majors. We can't say for certain that, as of now, he's worse than Duensing.

 

Duensing has also been horrible for us the last two and a half seasons.

[ThePuck]

La Velle Star Tribune

 

thanks :-)

[Nick Nelson]

Duensing has also been horrible for us the last two and a half seasons.

He's been horrible as a starter. But that's not really pertinent.

[JB_Iowa]

But maybe Duensing just needs a little breather from the pressure. Same with Burton.

 

I'd like to see what others in the bullpen can do. You don't know what will happen until they are put in a pressure situation.

[ThePuck]

He's been horrible as a starter. But that's not really pertinent.

 

He was horrible as a reliever in 2011. ERA over 5.00 as a reliever that year. He had an ERA in the high 3.00s in 2012 as a reliever, but he also allowed his share of inherited runners. And he's been bad this year too.

[Nick Nelson]

He was horrible as a reliever in 2011. ERA over 5.00 as a reliever that year. He had an ERA in the high 3.00s in 2012 as a reliever, but he also allowed his share of inherited runners. And he's been bad this year too.

 

You're joking, right? He made four relief appearances in 2011. Come on man.

 

If you took a deeper look at his numbers this year, I don't think you'd come away with the conclusion that he's been "bad." His ERA isn't great, I guess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I applaud this move - but it is a little weird how it's playing out. Usually, this kind of change happens organically, and someone like Thielbar is put into higher and higher leverage innings. If that was happening, I didn't notice. Now, suddenly, he's the setup guy?

"8th inning guy" is the new closer. It's a pretty rigid and artificial construct -- nothing "organic" about it anymore.

[snepp]

He was horrible as a reliever in 2011. ERA over 5.00 as a reliever that year.

 

Yeah, those were a brutal 5 1/3 innings.

[TheLeviathan]

Let me just say, Duensing is better but you can't cite "the last five years" as proof if you don't accept the bad with the good either.

[ThePuck]

Yeah, those were a brutal 5 1/3 innings.

 

Okay, well, everyone seem to think he's still good. I must be wrong. And, yeah, I didn't double check the innings on that, so that's my bad there.

[ThePuck]

Let me just say, Duensing is better but you can't cite "the last five years" as proof if you don't accept the bad with the good either.

 

My question is this. At this moment in time, is Duensing better? For those saying he is, how do we know? Because of history? Would we say Trout wasn't as good as, say, Adam Jones at this time last year because Jones has history of being okay to above-average while Trout was just a rookie? Who would you take right now and going forward, Puig or Nelson Cruz?

 

Duensing didn't hit the majors till he was 26. Thielbar is 26. It doesn't matter what Duensing did in the past. Who is better now and going forward? Seems the consensus is Duensing. I have my doubts.

[Nick Nelson]

Let me just say, Duensing is better but you can't cite "the last five years" as proof if you don't accept the bad with the good either.

I don't accept his failures as a starting pitcher because he's not a starting pitcher. He has been consistently dominant against left-handed hitters for his entire career and his role -- now and going forward -- is as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Same goes for Thielbar, whom we're comparing him to. I'm not using selective splits, I'm comparing apples to apples.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't accept his failures as a starting pitcher because he's not a starting pitcher. He has been consistently dominant against left-handed hitters for his entire career and his role -- now and going forward -- is as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Same goes for Thielbar, whom we're comparing him to. I'm not using selective splits, I'm comparing apples to apples.

 

You are right that he is very tough on lefties, that's the key. Overall his last five years, especially the last three haven't been good overall. Pretty "meh" which speaks to the need for a better defined role.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Duensing has been a high-quality MLB reliever for about five years -- at times one of the game's elite lefty specialists.

 

Duensing's relief stats by season:

 

2009: 15 G, 31.1 IP, 5.17 ERA, 73% inherited scored (league average ~30%), average Leverage Index .761 (below average)

2010: 40 G, 45 IP, 1.80 ERA, 14% IS, .880 aLI

2011: 4 G, 5 IP, 5.06 ERA, .912 aLI

2012: 44 G, 57 IP, 3.47 ERA, 16% IS, .980 aLI

2013: 39 G, 29.2 IP, 4.55 ERA, 34% IS, 1.363 aLI

 

This is the first season he's been used as a high-leverage-type reliever. Prior to this year, he had a great half season in 2010 and a good half season in 2012. And all through these seasons, his relief K rate has stayed constant in the 5's.

 

He's not a bad reliever, especially given his pre-arb salaries, but it would be a stretch to say "high-quality MLB reliever" given his sample of actual relief pitching. And an even bigger stretch to say he's been maintaining it for five years, when his actual relief pitching sample is more like two seasons. And I would doubt he's ever been considered among the game's elite lefty specialists -- even in his best season of 2010, he wasn't being used as a lefty specialist.

 

That's not to say he can't be a useful piece going forward, but given his salaries are climbing (will be second-time arb eligible this offseason), there's no downside to giving some higher-leverage opportunities to Thielbar instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't have his relief platoon splits, but overall, he's been just under a .700 OPS guy vs. LHB for every year, 2011-2013. That's right about the league average OPS for all batters against all relief pitchers, so it suggests his platoon advantage hasn't carried over from his first two seasons (when his OPS against LHB was very good, around .500).