Payton Eeles

[DocBauer]

Payton Eeles has been getting quite a bit of ink over the past few months since his signing out of Independent Ball. And rightfully so as he's been an interesting surprise. And I thought a separate thread might be due, even though the season at AAA isn't done yet.

He attended Coastal Carolina for college. While not a Blue Blood program, the school has built up a pretty respectable athletic department over the past several years. The baseball program won the CWS in 2016. I believe that was their first appearance there?

For his career, Eeles produced a quad slash line of .381/ .445/ .489/ .934. He never had a great deal of power, but he did flash some speed in SB success. As one might expect from a college player, he moved around the dirt some, but he was primary at 2B...127 games...and SS...72 games.

While he didn't produce power, and didn't have a 1.000+ OPS, his quad slash line was pretty impressive. So why wasn't he drafted? I can't speak about his defense, but he was trusted enough to see a fair amount of action at SS, so he must not have been a butcher. But when you don't have a lot of power, only stand 5' 5", and the draft is only 20 rounds, you tend be an afterthought when the draft comes along.

There's been a lot of fair discussion as to how he ranks as a prospect in the Twins system when the dust settles and the smoke clears on the 2024 MILB season. After all, what he's doing hasn't been seen...at least in these parts...since Randy Dobnak skyrocketed straight to MLB as a pitcher from the Independent Leagues. Now, I'm not comparing the two...for goodness sake one is a pitcher and the other is an INF...I'm just saying his journey so far is rather unprecedented. 

So far, in 2024, at THREE different stops, he has a cumulative quad slash line of: .315/ .431/ .482/ .913. He's produced 27 XBH so far, including 7HR, which is only 3 short of his college career. That's not to say he's suddenly tapped in to power, but it's interesting to see what he's done in 270 AB between those three levels. He's also flashed some SB ability going 30-9 in attempts. Ironically, his worst numbers so far...while still good...came in his brief stay at A+. 

Despite where he came from, or the journey he's on, the question is: "Is he an actual prospect"?

Well, his numbers are very impressive in regard to AVG/OB/and OPS, despite not being a real slugger. And he's only 24yo until November, and is producing well at AAA ball.

IMO, despite such great success so far, and not old by any means, he's still "new" to pro ball. (No offense to the Independent Leagues). He doesn't have a track record of facing teams, and pitchers, at any level multiple times. There's got to be a reality check that holes in his swing/approach haven't really been diagnosed yet, yes? Further, despite some decent XBH numbers so far, and carrying a reported 180lbs on his 5' 5" frame, questions about actual pop/power must be asked. The days of simply being a "punch and judy" hitter are gone in MLB. 

What I find of great interest is the Twins decided to not only promote him very quickly, but they also chose to skip him past AA entirely after a rather brief time at Cedar Rapids. That tells me he's of interest, as well as being too advanced for anything AA or below.

I see him as a good contact, high OB, scrappy hitter who can spray the ball with a few liners and rappers to keep the opposition honest. He should be able to steal a few bases. If he can play a solid 2B/LF and "emergency" SS he's got a chance. Goodness knows he's going to have a small strike zone to frustrate pitchers, LOL.

But before we get too excited about a great story, let's remember he needs to show he can CONTINUE to perform with the bat when he stays at a level more than a month, and sees teams/pitchers more than once. Further, can he spray the ball and continue to show some XB ability? If not, ML pitchers and defenses will eat him up. Aldo, less we forget, some guys like Lee might be ahead of him at 2B, as well as Julien...who might end up playing some 1B...and Keaschall is right behind as an additional 2B option...though he might end up as a dangerous, utility player.

I don't say any of that to be a downer on a kid that is a tremendous surprise! If he were drafted in 2022 and performing the way he is, and already at AAA, with ALMOST 2 years under his belt, he might already be a top 20 prospect.  I'm only trying to take a realistic approach to a very different player, in a very different situation, who is performing particularly well, but is in a unique situation.

What are your thoughts and opinions on Eeles going forward?

[Dman]

That's a great writeup Doc!  I pretty much agree all the way.  Everything he has done looks great so far but let's see if he can keep it going after they start pitching him differently.  He'll most likely need to make adjustments.  I think the Twins will help him develop pull side power and we'll have to see if or how that impacts his swing.  I agree wit you though that if he wants his chance at the Majors his best way to get there is to develop more power/higher exit velocities.

It's just incredibly exciting to have a guy come out of nowhere and be this good.  I do still think there is some up and down coming as teams adjust.  I just feel strongly that with his approach he will find a way to make it all work.  We'll know more in the next year or two.

 

[DocBauer]

@Dman, agree on learnjng to pull the ball more. He hasnt been proper "challenged" to a certain degree since he hasn't had to repeat performances against teams and pitchers much yet. Again, he seems to be built pretty solidly, and appears to be pretty athletic. He reminds me a little bit of Martin, despite being shorter, primarily an INF, and LH. But like Martin it's not so much needing big HR power to be viable, it's keeping a good eye, good contact profile, but being able to pop the ball down the line and in the gaps. Thats the kind of power needed with his skillset, IMO.

[DocBauer]

Just finally got around to listening to Seth's interview with Eeles. Bright young man. Was surprised to learn he was a catcher in his youth. 

I keep wondering if he's not maybe a Pedroia kind of player without as much power. I think he's behind more than a few guys on the prospect list despite what he's done so far. Just too many questions about his bat translating to MLB at this point. And I see no reason to invite him to ST next year for reasons that should be obvious.

At this point, he probably compares to Prato at AAA. The older Prato just hasn't duplicated his 2023 performance this season. Doesn't mean he can't climb the ladder in 2025. But Eeles MIGHT be a younger, better version. The Twins have several INF drafted in 2022 and 2023 that have bounced around between AA and AAA, flashing, and then coming back down to earth. But none of them have consistently performed, so far, at AAA the way Eeles has. 

He's got a LOT to prove at AAA with repeated performance being at the top of the list. But I don't think he should be penalized on prospect lists, FWIW, based on his acquisition. He's the equivalent of an NFL rookie FA who sits on the PS for a year.