Ober versus Gray: Has the Tide Turned?

[arby58]

I've been big on Bailey Ober for a long time, and I have suggested that he is perfectly capable of replacing Gray at (or near) the top of the Twins rotation for a long time. It's worth doing an update on how he is performing versus the pitcher he would 'replace' in that position, Sonny Gray.

To date, Ober bests Gray in nearly every pitching category. They both have thrown about the same number of innings - Gray 135.2 and Ober 134. Ober has the better won-loss record, 12-5 to Gray's 11-8. Ober also has the better ERA, 3.49 to 3.91, and ERA+, 118 versus Gray's 108. Gray does best Ober in strikeouts, 168 to 140, but Ober has the better WHIP, 1.000 to 1.113. According to Baseball Reference, this works out to a 2.5 WAR for Ober, while Gray is basically half that much, at 1.2. A final feather in the Ober cap: Ober makes just under $762,000 this year, while Gray will make $10 million.

You make the call - I'll take Ober.

[ashbury]

Ober was pretty darn good last year too - in fact he hasn't reached last year's WAR total yet.  So if he has replaced Gray in the rotation, I am grateful that SWR might be seen as replacing Ober this year.