Looking at SS Twins Could have Signed Compared to CC

[Trov]

Going into the 2022 season we knew we needed a long term answer at SS.  Lewis was top prospect but still not ready and not sure if he was going to stick there long term.  There was a big class of free agent SS coming up.  Correa, Seagar, Semien(if you want to count him but he signed as a 2nd baseman, but I will not include in this because he has not played any SS) Baez and Story.  There were debates on who Twins should go after, many thought Story would be their target.  Seagar signed the 10 year deal CC was looking for.  Baez and Story each got 6 year deals, and we did the basically 1 year deal with CC.

We then got to do it all over again in 2023 as CC opted out.  Then the question was would we go after a SS or trust in Lewis if needed with someone like Farmer as stop gap until Lewis was back from injury.  Would we go after CC, or one of the other big names, Turner, Bogarts, Swanson.  Turner signed 11 year deal, mostly for tax purposes to extend out his deal, he will be 40 when deal is up, Bogarts got surprising 11 year deal with Padres, again tax reason for length, and Swanson got 7 years with Cubs.  We got CC on 6 years, but with team options should he not be healthy. 

Who has been the best of these options so far?  Who has been not up to par? I am going to do quick bWAR comparison without a big deep dive.

Lets look at the 2022 crop first.  Cory Seagar in 2022 put up 3.8.  CC put up 5.3, Story, who played 2nd base that season, put up 2.5 and Baez 2.4.  By that quick one year bWAR, CC was the best of the group.

Looking at 2023 crop, CC put up 1.4 Turner put up 3.4 Bogarts put up 4.4 and Swanson put up 4.8.  The 2022 long term contract, Seagar put up 6.9, Story put up 0.8 and Baez put up 0.6.

This year, CC has 2.5, Seagar has 2.2, Story has 0.2 and out for the season, Turner has 1.6, Bogarerts has -0.1 and Swanson has 0.6, and Baez has -1.4. 

In total, CC has 9.2 over two plus seasons.  Seagar has 12.9 over two plus seasons. Story has 3.5 over three seasons, being he is out rest of third season.  Baez has 1.6 over two plus seasons.  Seagar wins the 2022 class, even more so because he has a ring too.  

For the 2023 class CC has  3.6.  Turner has 5.  Bogarerts has 4.3.  Swanson has 5.4.  So far Swans has been slightly best and CC has been worst, but in part due to his terrible first year with being hurt.  If CC continues like he has he very well may overtake the others after this year.

Without comparing contracts, I would say Seager is the best option, so far, but CC is a close second overall.  They sure dodged a bullet with Story or Baez if either were considered though. It sure did not look good after last year that CC was on a down turn, but he has having great first half this year. 

[Linus]

I like this look back. It’s a big contract but he is really an elite player. At the time I was kind of leery of taking up that much payroll room when Royce was waiting in the wings. After seeing Royce in the field now I don’t think he has the arm to be a good SS so the FO made the right decision on this one IMO. 

[bean5302]

I don't think the Twins were really in the running for any of these shortstops in 2022, even if they had initial interest. As I recall, Boras called the Twins essentially out of the blue and proposed the pillow contract to probably shocked Derek Falvey.

2022 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html
Carlos Correa = 10yrs $320MM, Actual = 3yrs $105MM including 2 player options. 1yr $35MM final.
Corey Seagar = 10yrs $305MM. Actual = 10yrs $325MM
Marcus Semien = 6yrs $138MM. Actual = 7yrs $175MM
Trevor Story = 6yrs $126MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM
Javier Baez = 5yrs $100MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM

Into 2023, I think the Twins were confident in Royce Lewis, but they really loved Correa in making him a 10 year $285MM offer, but they of course, knew it wasn't going to get him so it's a bit moot. Otherwise, I don't think the Twins were probably that active in pursuing shortstops legitimately.
2023 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html
Carlos Correa = 9yrs $288MM, Actual 13yrs $350MM, psych!, 12yrs $315MM, psych!!!!, 6yrs $200MM + 4 years $80MM vesting
Trea Turner = 8yrs $268MM, Actual 11yrs $300MM
Xander Boegarts = 7yrs $189MM, Actual 11yrs $280MM
Dansby Swanson = 7yrs $154MM, Actual 7yrs $177MM

In the case of every single free agent shortstop in both years, except Carlos Correa in both years, the final contract was larger than predicted. The likeliest Twins targets were on the shorter, lower AAV target range, but they went for far higher than expected. Story and Baez in particular have been disaster contracts.

The Twins really shocked the MLB world when they signed Correa the first time to the pillow deal, but they left the world completely speechless and flabbergasted when they brought him back on a long term deal, beating out big name large market suitors like the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets in the process. It was absolutely mind boggling, and it made it very clear that Correa loved playing for the Twins. I'm quite convinced this would not have happened for any shortstop not named Carlos Correa given the exact same scenario.

Playing the "what if" game, Marcus Semien would have been the best signing at 7yrs $175MM. He certainly could be handling SS given his elite 2B defense, and his WAR production would probably be even a little higher if he was at SS. Plus, the Twins probably wouldn't be too torn up about pushing him off SS to test Royce Lewis there. Semien makes $26MM per year through 2026, with his final year dropping to $20MM. A fair chunk of change cheaper than Correa.

Still, it's hard for me to come to the conclusion the Twins didn't wind up with a great deal (and the 2nd best deal) for what amounts to 7yrs $235MM for Carlos Correa, with 4 vesting options at just $80MM more. Without that great deal both times, Correa doesn't land in Minnesota.