Did Colt Keith Deal, Jorge Polanco Trade Pave the Way for a Pre-Debut Brooks Lee Deal?

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Gotcha on the Albies/Bregman, that's a different topic for a different thread.

You are mixing guaranteed and max money, Churio has two club options at 25m bringing the max total to 10/132m. Keith max is 9/82m.  Guarantee of 82m vs 28.6m.  The number of years doesn't set the guarantee, Churio is 10m a year while Keith only gets to 5m per in the last two years.  Churio certainly set a market, and it's not one that Keith or Lee are playing in.  

Keith is 6/28.6m, basically the same as Evan White a few years earlier.  No idea what the Mariners were thinking but he was a decent prospect, albeit a first baseman.  That Keith was willing to sign for Evan White money tells me something.  He jumped at the bottom of the market. 

Lee's agent doesn't return your calls for Colt Keith money.  

You're ignoring years. Keith's guaranteed years don't buy out any of his free agent years while Chourio's buys out 2, that's the difference in guaranteed money. That's why Keith's option years add up to the same total, but over 1 extra year so AAV is slightly less. That's why I separated my numbers by years.

If you're only guaranteeing the contract for Lee's pre-arb and arb years the number is 27-30 mil. If you're adding 2 or 3 years onto that you need to get to the 80-90 mil mark. Call it 9/100 if that makes you feel better. But you need to take into consideration what the length of the deal is buying out.

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You're ignoring years. Keith's guaranteed years don't buy out any of his free agent years while Chourio's buys out 2, that's the difference in guaranteed money. That's why Keith's option years add up to the same total, but over 1 extra year so AAV is slightly less. That's why I separated my numbers by years.

If you're only guaranteeing the contract for Lee's pre-arb and arb years the number is 27-30 mil. If you're adding 2 or 3 years onto that you need to get to the 80-90 mil mark. Call it 9/100 if that makes you feel better. But you need to take into consideration what the length of the deal is buying out.

Keith makes 2.5m salary this year while Churio will make 10m. I was told there would be no math but I would think that's where most of the guaranteed money comes from, year by year. 

There is no comparison of these two contracts, Churio is in another orbit.  Lee is somewhere in between the two, about halfway by my estimation. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Keith makes 2.5m salary this year while Churio will make 10m. I was told there would be no math but I would think that's where most of the guaranteed money comes from, year by year. 

There is no comparison of these two contracts, Churio is in another orbit.  Lee is somewhere in between the two, about halfway by my estimation. 

No, Jackson Chourio is making 2 million this year. He doesn't make 10 mil in a year until year 6 of his 8 year deal. You need to take into account the pre-arb and arb year portions of the deal, not just the overall deal. Chourio is getting 45 mil for his first 6 years so if you want to say it'd take at least 45 mil in the first 6 years to sign Lee that'd be a better argument. But there is a very real difference between buying out pre-arb and arb years and buying out free agency years. So comparing just their guaranteed money is not an effective way of comparing these deals because Chourio's deal includes guaranteed money in his first 2 free agent years while Keith's doesn't. That is a very important part of these deals.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No, Jackson Chourio is making 2 million this year. He doesn't make 10 mil in a year until year 6 of his 8 year deal. You need to take into account the pre-arb and arb year portions of the deal, not just the overall deal. Chourio is getting 45 mil for his first 6 years so if you want to say it'd take at least 45 mil in the first 6 years to sign Lee that'd be a better argument. But there is a very real difference between buying out pre-arb and arb years and buying out free agency years. So comparing just their guaranteed money is not an effective way of comparing these deals because Chourio's deal includes guaranteed money in his first 2 free agent years while Keith's doesn't. That is a very important part of these deals.

I see what I was reading wrong on the 10m but I don't think it changes my point.  Other than the first year Churio is banking much more cash throughout the deal.  The money is still guaranteed and that is what represents the investment.  I would think with the higher guarantee more years would be a part of it.  To me the money is the driver and the years just fall into place.  I don't see a meaningful difference between arb and prep arb years other than the player aiming for an age to hit free agency again.  

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I see what I was reading wrong on the 10m but I don't think it changes my point.  Other than the first year Churio is banking much more cash throughout the deal.  The money is still guaranteed and that is what represents the investment.  I would think with the higher guarantee more years would be a part of it.  To me the money is the driver and the years just fall into place.  I don't see a meaningful difference between arb and prep arb years other than the player aiming for an age to hit free agency again.  

Their pre-arb and arb years are capped financially so to speak. You get the outlier Soto and Judge guys who "break" the arb system, but generally speaking there's a limit, and a known one at that, to what the player is going to make in their first 6 years of service time. There is a massive difference between singing a guaranteed deal that only covers your first 6 years and one that goes into your free agent years. It can't be understated. Keith only getting guaranteed money through his arb years is a massive difference between his deal and the Chourio deal. The second you get to the 7th year in a deal like that the value skyrockets. The years are a huge part of this conversation. And yes, it's about hitting free agency. You simply can't compare their guaranteed money without addressing the fact that one only covers arb years and the other goes into free agency. The years are very important.