Should the Twins Spend More on the 'Pen?

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I am a bit disappointed that I finished researching this topic after the top two relievers on the market were signed. The current FO has been very insistent that they don't want to spend on the bullpen. The bullpen was average last season, and it could benefit from some additions. Here's how the bullpen currently looks:

CL: Jhoan Duran

SU: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Brock Stewart

MR: Cody Funderburk, Jorge Alcala, Josh Staumont, Matt Canterino

AAA: Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, Brent Headrick, Ryan Jensen

Off40: Jovani Moran, AJ Alexy, Ronny Henriquez

 

How Well Does Spending Money Correlate to Bullpen Success?

As a general rule, players who are paid more money are better than players who are paid less. However, bullpen arms have historically been more volatile than teen girls. Juan Rincon fell apart at age 28. Matt Wisler randomly became the best reliever in baseball in 2020. Joe Nathan posted a 4.84 ERA in the middle of four all-star appearances in five years. One or two disaster outings could ruin a reliever's ERA for the year, or some good luck could make an average Joe look like Mariano Rivera. Here are a few bullpen metrics compared to the financial investment made in them:

I compiled data from the last three seasons, as the 2020 season brought some big rule changes that recently impacted the way bullpens have been constructed. "Adjusted Positional Spend" scales the 2021 and 2022 salaries to match the 2023 market, so the '21 and '22 teams would not skew the data because of the lowered salaries in those seasons compared to last year. 

The r-squared values are exceptionally low, as the data is completely random before the $30M mark. Most mid-to-low market teams reside in this area of the data, and while teams like the Rays, Brewers, and Reds have been able to create lockdown pens on a tight budget, rebuilding clubs like the Royals and Athletics got what they paid for. A couple of trends are worth noticing. Chiefly, the Twins bullpen has improved each year over this span while the overall budget has been reduced. The emergence of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax on Pre-Arb contracts has been a big reason for this; the Twins have found more success developing relievers rather than acquiring them. Secondly, once you cross the $30M on the WAR graph, a very high percentage of those bullpens posted very strong WAR values, so there is some evidence to support what the Dodgers, Mets, Braves, Giants, etc., are doing by investing a very large amount of financial capital into relievers.

 

What About Pooling All of Your Eggs Into One Basket?

This is a very pertinent question for the Twins. A few back-end arms will create most of the value (WAR) generated by a bullpen. Therefore, it would seem logical to pool all of your money into one guy instead of clogging up your low-leverage roles with $3M/year contracts. Here's what the data looks like:

 

The correlation here is extremely low. The Twins' highest paid relievers for those years were Alex Colome, Emilio Pagan, and Emilio Pagan, so highest paid certainly does not mean best. Although the data is very random, after the $16M mark, those half-dozen or so bullpens were all fantastic. The one exception was the 2023 Mets, who were without Edwin Diaz the entire year. Besides the exception, all of those bullpens were above the trendline on the WAR graph, and all posted a collective ERA under 4.00. Another key takeaway is that the trendline is much steeper on this WAR graph compared to the WAR vs Positional Spend graph. The correlation coefficients are very low, but when the money is spread out, you have to spend $15M, on average to raise the team's WAR by one. When the money is pooled into one player, however, that number drops to $8.5M per win. 

These large contracts are not particularly risky, either. Looking at BTV, the biggest "underwater" reliever contracts are Rafael Montero, Chad Green, Joe Jimenez, Taylor Rogers, Robert Suarez, and Emilio Pagan, none of whom are closers or elite setup men. Conversely, BTV loves the Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase contracts and is ambivalent about the Hader and Jansen contracts. There's a reason why those top-shelf guys make so much money, and in my view, it's much safer than overpaying a mid-tier reliever.

 

How Do Rotations Affect Bullpen Success?

The Twins' increasing bullpen success has also coincided with the rotation going from dreadful to mediocre to wonderful. Would we be better off giving $20M/year to an above-average starter than to an elite closer? Let's dive deeper:

There seems to be more correlation (and a steeper variance) between rotation salaries and rotation production than there is in the bullpen. It should be noted that the Twins increased their financial investment in their rotation each year during this span and were rewarded greatly. As it relates to starter spending, however, there seems to be very little correlation between how much teams spend on starters and the effectiveness of their bullpen.

One big shift in the Twins' management last season was their usage of starters and letting them work deep into ballgames. This tends to be an effective way to rest your bullpen and ensure that middle relievers are not used in close ballgames. As such, there is a moderate correlation between bullpen ERA and how many innings the starters pitch. If the Twins continue to allow their starters to work into the 6th and 7th innings of games, the bullpen will be much better off.

 

More Key Takeaways

After the Stephenson and Hader deals were announced on Friday, lots of teams are going to talk to Hector Neris and Wandy Peralta about medium-length deals for ~$10M APY. While it may seem attractive to add another leverage arm to the bullpen, it seems doubtful that these deals will work out well for the teams that sign them. Both of them are on the wrong side of 30, and xERA, especially, shows that they were extremely lucky last season. I would be very hesitant to add a free-agent reliever at a price greater than $2M/year.

Jax and Duran have been healthy the last two years, but Stewart and Thielbar have many injury concerns. As much as I am hopeful for Staumont, Alcala, and Canterino to find new life this year, it's not a good plan to have them be in high-leverage roles if two or more setup men go down. The Twins should look to trade for a reliever who's shown consistency in that role at the MLB level. I like Hoby Milner and Kyle Finnegan as cheap options to raise the floor of the leverage corps.

Lastly, I think the Twins should have many conversations with Jhoan Duran and his agent about an extension. We saw how expensive Josh Hader's arbitration became; a $13M/year deal for Duran could be very savvy. If he produces 1.5-3 WAR a year for the rest of his career, that contract will look like a massive bargain by the time he's 29.

[JD-TWINS]

The reliever v. starter spending is difficult due to the number of games a key reliever can affect…….some really good or oft used relievers can have a hand in 55 games during the season. High value!

I’m stuck on adding a serious addition to the Team’s Pen to really stabilize the back end. I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary but it could be a big positive. Thielbar - Stewart are truly health risks & could be out more than they’re in play - see 2023.

Am targeting one guy, in trade, with a team that seems to be re-tooling, Milwaukee. Devin Williams makes $7.25M this year after his arbitration settlement. He set-up for Hader for 2-3 years and has been closer for them since Hader was traded. Excellent the entire time! He could set-up or close depending upon other’s rest/availability during regular season.

In playoffs, it lines up as Varland - Paddack - Stewart - Williams - Duran…….potentially, in any and every game needed. This line-up allows Jax & Thielbar to fill any of these roles as needed. It also allows for starters to go anywhere from 3 plus innings to 7 innings based upon performance that day.

Trading for Williams seems plausible. He’s controllable for 2 seasons, so an investment in the trade isn’t a terrible, “rental” for a year, deal.

My assumption is payroll is currently around $118M - $120M? Accurate? With this in mind, Polanco is traded and there is $22-27M available to stay at $130-135M ceiling. $130M is a 15.5% reduction from ‘23 - that has to be a good number for the organization!

$7.25M to Williams & $15M to Clevinger brings the total to $130-$132M.

Continue to pursue a starter in trade & if it works, in July, the Team can trade either of the guys above or another guy that’s extra depth to fill an offensive hole. Maybe they can feel more free to trade a prospect like Festa or like with the added existing depth?

Williams is a great complimentary piece to any bullpen and he’d make the Twin’s group elite.

[DJL44]

They should definitely spend some money on the bullpen by giving Duran a long-term deal this offseason.

As far as getting a bunch of arms and figuring it out in spring training, that can be an effective plan if they pick the right guys. This bullpen would look a whole lot better with Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe under contract.