Reviewing the ZiPS Game-By-Game Odds for the Twins/Astros Series

[Cody Christie]

The Twins beat the odds and upset the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. So, how do the Twins compare against the Astros for each game of the ALDS?

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level.  

He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day."

These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Astros series playing out over the next week. 

Game 1
Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Bailey Ober
Twins Win Probability: 38.3%
The Twins' top two starters aren't available after pitching in the Wild Card Series, so the team must shift to a different pitcher for Game 1. Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3 in the previous series, but the Twins decided to start Ober. Minute Maid Park is a home run friendly environment, and Ryan allowed a career-high 1.8 HR/9 compared to 1.4 HR/9 for Ober. FanGraphs originally had the Twins at 38.1% win probability, so switching starters had a small positive impact. Verlander has made 35 starts in the postseason and pitched over 200 innings for multiple World Series champions. The Astros should be favored in Game 1. 

Game 2
Expected Starters: Framber Valdez vs. Pablo Lopez
Twins Win Probability: 38.7%
Valdez has been one of the American League's best pitchers over the last three seasons while being a workhorse at the top of Houston's rotation. That being said, this win probability insults what Lopez has done on the mound this season. Lopez was among the AL's best pitchers during the 2023 season in multiple categories. Pitching in Houston can be challenging for any opponent, but he will be on full rest for Game 2, allowing him to return for Game 5 if necessary. This game is shaping up to be a pitcher's duel. 

Game 3
Expected Starters: Cristian Javier vs. Sonny Gray
Twins Win Probability: 50.7%
According to ZiPS, Game 3 is the lone game the Twins are favored to win. Gray's start in the Wild Card Series was also the only game Minnesota was projected to win, so there is still hope for the Twins. Twins Daily named Gray the team's Pitcher of the Year and MVP earlier this week, and he's mentioned how vital this playoff run is to him and his family. Javier posted a 4.56 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in 162 innings this year. This game will be critical for the Twins offense to put up some crooked numbers against the starting pitcher. 

Game 4
Expected Starters: Jose Urquidy vs. Joe Ryan
Twins Win Probability: 48.9%
Urquidy missed time during the 2023 season with right shoulder inflammation, and his on-field performance struggled for the first time in his career. In 16 appearances (63.0 IP), he posted a 5.29 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a 45-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ryan pitch significantly better at Target Field this season compared to his road appearances. In 14 home starts, his ERA was 1.38 runs lower and opponents posted an OPS that was 167 points lower. One of the two teams will face elimination during this game, so both starters will likely have a short leash. 

Game 5
Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Pablo Lopez
Twins Win Probability: 37.2%
There is the potential for this to be an epic pitching matchup If the series goes five games. Verlander is a future Hall of Fame member at the end of his career. Lopez has been the ace pitcher the Twins have sought since Johan Santana was traded away. Anything can happen in a winner-take-all game, so the win probability should be closer to 50%. 

Overall Odds
Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 36.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in three games is 7.5%, the odds of winning in three games is 15.2%, and the odds of winning in five games is 13.7%. The Astros won three more games than the Twins during the regular season and had to fight for a division title until the season's final day. Houston is more vulnerable than in previous seasons, but they are still the clear favorites on paper. 

Can the Twins beat the odds for the second straight round? Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in any of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

So what was zips odds in the 1st series? Just more fuel for the Twins! On any given day....

[Boswell]

Zip a dee doo dah, zip a dee day!

These guys need to go back and do some computer graphics for an updated Jungle Book.  Reimagine Mowgli for a new generation. 
 

Leave baseball alone, please.  The games are played on dirt and grass by flesh and blood people!