The 2023 MLB Draft "Bailey Ober" award winner

[Aaron Weiland]

You know how every year Falvey drafts a college arm in the late rounds that no one else is interested in but turns out awesome? In 2017 it was Bailey Ober, 2018 it was Cody Funderburk, 2019 it was Varland, 2021 was Festa, 2022 seems like there are about 4 of them in Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper Ethridge etc. I think I've already found this years version.

Twins have a few strengths when it comes to pitching development, with some examples included:

• Adding velo onto low velo throwers (Ober, Varland)
• Building around seemingly mundane fastballs that have a little uniqueness to them (Ober, Ryan)
• Ironing out mechanics-related control issues (Duran, Moran [yes I mean this, it used to be way worse])

Well, enter 2023 10th round selection Ross Dunn, LHP from ASU. He's all three of these things.

Ross Dunn is a big frame lefty at 6'3". Despite being relatively large framed, his fastball only sits 90-92. But despite being low velo on the fastball, it has a good deceptive quality to it, seemingly hiding the ball behind his head and then behind his upper arm right up basically right up until the point of release. The MLB scouting video on him actually gives a cool slow-mo breakdown on what this looks like about halfway in.

Ross Dunn strikes everyone out, despite not being a big Stuff merchant on paper. The deception to his fastball and a big whiff slider led him to strike out an incredible 84 batters in 65 innings in the Pac-12 last year. But MLB notes that he has difficulty locating the fastball, leading to him also walking 44 hitters in those same 65 innings. While I can't see any quality of contact stats for him obviously, he gave up only a 0.7 HR/9, which indicates to me that when he does get hit, it's generally not the loudest of contact.

The player on the Twins that this profile reminds me the most of is Jovani Moran, although Dunn has a legitimate 3 pitch mix and thus could stick as a starter provided he finds some control refinement. But even if he does have to transition to a reliever, his ability to miss consistently bats should give him some potential there as well.

His overall Scouting Grades:

- 55 Fastball

- 55 Slider

- 50 Changeup

- 45 Control.

Obviously, he's a project. Every college arm that is still around in the 10th round is a project of some sort and to some degree. But this is pick lines up perfectly with what I perceive the Twins strengths to be from a pitching development standpoint. He has the frame to add a little bit of velo, he has a unique trait fastball to make it play up more from that velo and may lead to missing more bats, and he could truly blossom with some mechanics adjustments that lead to more control.

Ross Dunn is personally the arm I'm most excited to pay attention to in the developmental leagues this season/next season.

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff thanks

[Roaddog]

On 7/11/2023 at 1:46 PM, Aaron Weiland said:

You know how every year Falvey drafts a college arm in the late rounds that no one else is interested in but turns out awesome? In 2017 it was Bailey Ober, 2018 it was Cody Funderburk, 2019 it was Varland, 2021 was Festa, 2022 seems like there are about 4 of them in Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper Ethridge etc. I think I've already found this years version.

Twins have a few strengths when it comes to pitching development, with some examples included:

• Adding velo onto low velo throwers (Ober, Varland)
• Building around seemingly mundane fastballs that have a little uniqueness to them (Ober, Ryan)
• Ironing out mechanics-related control issues (Duran, Moran [yes I mean this, it used to be way worse])

Well, enter 2023 10th round selection Ross Dunn, LHP from ASU. He's all three of these things.

Ross Dunn is a big frame lefty at 6'3". Despite being relatively large framed, his fastball only sits 90-92. But despite being low velo on the fastball, it has a good deceptive quality to it, seemingly hiding the ball behind his head and then behind his upper arm right up basically right up until the point of release. The MLB scouting video on him actually gives a cool slow-mo breakdown on what this looks like about halfway in.

Ross Dunn strikes everyone out, despite not being a big Stuff merchant on paper. The deception to his fastball and a big whiff slider led him to strike out an incredible 84 batters in 65 innings in the Pac-12 last year. But MLB notes that he has difficulty locating the fastball, leading to him also walking 44 hitters in those same 65 innings. While I can't see any quality of contact stats for him obviously, he gave up only a 0.7 HR/9, which indicates to me that when he does get hit, it's generally not the loudest of contact.

The player on the Twins that this profile reminds me the most of is Jovani Moran, although Dunn has a legitimate 3 pitch mix and thus could stick as a starter provided he finds some control refinement. But even if he does have to transition to a reliever, his ability to miss consistently bats should give him some potential there as well.

His overall Scouting Grades:

- 55 Fastball

- 55 Slider

- 50 Changeup

- 45 Control.

Obviously, he's a project. Every college arm that is still around in the 10th round is a project of some sort and to some degree. But this is pick lines up perfectly with what I perceive the Twins strengths to be from a pitching development standpoint. He has the frame to add a little bit of velo, he has a unique trait fastball to make it play up more from that velo and may lead to missing more bats, and he could truly blossom with some mechanics adjustments that lead to more control.

Ross Dunn is personally the arm I'm most excited to pay attention to in the developmental leagues this season/next season.

This is the guy I think we can really turn into something. If he can add some velocity and cut down his walks, we have something here